Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Galic Ho]

According to Wiggo, he's been training like a swimmer, so he's 95-97% all the time. IMHO, if he thinks he can win the Tour like that, he might be in for a surprise. Most riders going to the Tour are training to peak in July, so even though he might be ***** slapping his rivals now, the likes of Evans, Menchov and maybe even Schleck could overtake him when they peak a month from now. I guess we will see.

That's my point. It's dangerous. Really, really dangerous. After 2009 they mentioned his body fat was so low he was getting sick after the Tour and was at risk of catching something if the weather went sour and got too cold. Too many risks. I personally think it contributed to him breaking bones last year. A bit more weight, he'd have been fine.

I like the number you threw up. I'd agree with it. The way his season has progressed, it does seem like he's been at near his peak every time he's won. Explains why he is beating riders who use to beat him. The turnaround is the danger like you said. When Evans, Menchov, Nibali and Scheck(s) and Samu peak, the advantage if any will have evaporated entirely or diminished. But then again, Brad stated last year he was at his ideal race weight in February. It was mentioned on this forum as a bad idea and that he was too skinny for too long. He crashes...it's not good.

BTW I agree with your post however many pages back about the trends in the voting. Undoubtedly come the final week, one rider will suddenly acquire quite a few more votes. I'd suggest if you can, shutting down the voting on this thread when the prologue starts. Start a new thread with a new poll. Forumists can only vote once. It'd show us perspective if the voting for this thread stopped. We'd see who really did guess right. The only voters in the third week will be forum newbies or absentees.

In terms of your poll I'd like to see Valverde win the Tour, there aren't many backers as you didn't leave an option. Other seems to be the only option.

 

[karlboss]

I'm relatively sure at least by percentage, Evans has closed the gap on Wiggins in the voting since the start of the Dauphine.

I'm still waiting till the end of the tour de Suisse.

 

[Galic Ho]

I'm relatively sure at least by percentage, Evans has closed the gap on Wiggins in the voting since the start of the Dauphine.

I'm still waiting till the end of the tour de Suisse.

He has, but only marginally. Wiggins has gained an extra 20 votes the last week. Tour de Suisse? Is Valverde racing there? He's the only guy racing there who can win the Tour if his form is right in July. Haven't checked the course but I do remember reading the course this year is rather flat. I was surprised when I watched the Dauphine prologue to find all the guys I consider as favourites for the Tour top 5 to be racing there. Normally there is an even spread.

Suisse won't show much in terms of GC riders for the Tour. All the big names are at the Dauphine. You are right though, it will however reflect in voting here...I think (relying on Gesink and Samu to race there). Better go check the race lists. Don't worry, Bottle, Kloden and Horner aren't going to win the Tour.

 

[Galic Ho]

You know, I was just thinking today at work about Wiggins form and the need to peak toward the last week of the Tour. I came here to point it out, but I see you've got it handled, and handled well.

It's hard to believe Wiggins can hold his form throughout the Tour, or, if he does, that his form will match what some of the others will dish out when they peak. Should be interesting to watch.

Agreed. I'd actually rate him a chance for the Tour if Rogers, Porte or Froome were the guy the team was trying to win the Dauphine with. I think he can match form he has now for the first week of the Tour. Perhaps even look good till the beginning of the last week even. Then it's dangerous waters. Very dangerous. He's either going to write history with timing peaking and maintaining it for an unfathomable period or he's going to make for a nice and expected collapse.

Good viewing? As long as people attack, I'll be happy. Part of me is hoping Andy Schleck wins the Tour...just to see the reaction on the forum. A Schleck win will give better dialog on here than anyone else.

 

[karlboss]

He has, but only marginally. Wiggins has gained an extra 20 votes the last week. Tour de Suisse? Is Valverde racing there? He's the only guy racing there who can win the Tour if his form is right in July. Haven't checked the course but I do remember reading the course this year is rather flat. I was surprised when I watched the Dauphine prologue to find all the guys I consider as favourites for the Tour top 5 to be racing there. Normally there is an even spread.

Suisse won't show much in terms of GC riders for the Tour. All the big names are at the Dauphine. You are right though, it will however reflect in voting here...I think (relying on Gesink and Samu to race there). Better go check the race lists. Don't worry, Bottle, Kloden and Horner aren't going to win the Tour.

Samu is at crit de Dauphine crashed hard first road and has limped on ever since.

The Course has more climbing and the days are longer than Dauphine.

Contenders at Tour de Suisse...noone I'd really expect, but someone might surprise so I'll wait. Gesink, Valverde, Danielson, Velits, Leipheimer, Kloden, F Schleck, Fuglsang, Anton, Mollema...

Strength vs Strength I don't think many if any have a chance, although Velits and Leipheimer are riding for the right team to surprise.
You never know one of these may stay away in a break and hold on.

EDIT: Would love a Schleck win, just because the racing wouldn't have been dull.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

We've yet to see how much Wiggins will expend in the mountains for the Dauphine. So far he has ridden a great TT and it is the team that are working. If none of the main contenders really attack and put him under pressure he may win with his team having done most of the hard work for him. This has been the case for most of his wins so far.

There is a difference between peaking and exertion. i.e. It is surely easier to stay at a 95% 'peak' over a long(er) period of time if you are not always exhausting yourself?

If he fails to win the tour it is more likely because he was not good enough then to do with peaking at the wrong time.

 

[dlwssonic]

But it was quite obvious wiggins was giving everything in the TT, he was not holding anything back.

 

[Morbius]

Some interesting points from Galic. Here is an alternative view, though not based on any detailed knowledge, more from watching what seems to be the Sky theory:

1 With (legitimate) sports science, it is easier to keep a longer peak than when people were training by feel, due to undertanding of nutrition, power meters, better testing etc
2 It is very difficult to get the timing right for a short peak, such as the three weeks of a tour. Some riders spend years learning how to do this (e.g. Evans).
3 Wiggins doesn't have a decade of learning how to peak for a tour, so for him the lower risk option is to go for the long steady peak. Plus he has the obsessive nature that means he can try this. Schleck for instance would not be able to train like this over a long time, though someone like Evans probably could.
4 As Don't be Late just said, Wiggins seems to be racing hard in bursts, but that is not the same as peaking for an event - though there is no doubt he is closer to his peak than other riders
5 A question: Does the long steady peak approach make it more or less likely that a rider will have a bad day? It is reasonable to hope that it makes it less likely, but we don't have the evidence

Anyway, all will become clear in a month. I just hope they all stay upright so we can see who is best by the end, and that Wiggins wins of course

 

[dlwssonic]

ACF needs to come back soon, its getting quite boring without him.

 

[Morbius]

ACF needs to come back soon, its getting quite boring without him.

Well thanks dwl. I was hoping to make points for discussion, but anyway

 

[dlwssonic]

Well thanks dwl. I was hoping to make points for discussion, but anyway

It wasn't a reply to your post.

I was just saying it.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

But it was quite obvious wiggins was giving everything in the TT, he was not holding anything back.

But that is really just one day in five so far. I am sure there are days in training where you will occasionally have to go all out - They are professional athletes after all.

But if you constantly go hard then your ability to perform at your 'peak' will drop. I am just suggesting that he has this year not consistently gone so hard so often that if will effect him come the tour.

Cue Wiggins dropping out the first mountain stage of the Tour due to exhaustion...

 

[Galic Ho]

Samu is at crit de Dauphine crashed hard first road and has limped on ever since.

Only saw the end of the first stage. Just noticed his name in the placings from last nights stage. Amazing how SBS in Australia and Keenan in the commentary box fail to mention his name. I simply assumed since I hadn't seen or heard from him that he was going to be in Switzerland.

The Course has more climbing and the days are longer than Dauphine.

Another thing I read up on just before coming back to this thread. Whoever it was who posted something the other day really is far from the truth. Harder than the Dauphine...interesting.

Contenders at Tour de Suisse...noone I'd really expect, but someone might surprise so I'll wait. Gesink, Valverde, Danielson, Velits, Leipheimer, Kloden, F Schleck, Fuglsang, Anton, Mollema...

Strength vs Strength I don't think many if any have a chance, although Velits and Leipheimer are riding for the right team to surprise.
You never know one of these may stay away in a break and hold on.

EDIT: Would love a Schleck win, just because the racing wouldn't have been dull.

Gesink and Mollema will be interesting. Kloden...it'll show how much of a wildcard Radioshack have to play this year if he's got some spring in his legs. Leipheimer's broken leg should be better. Wouldn't surprise me if he repeats his win last year, then again he could still be off form slightly. I don't rate his Tour chances much better than 10th. Valverde and Tommy D will be interesting. I'd like to see how well they both go. Top 10 potential definitely, along with Kloden and one Rabobank rider...Gesink is my bet. Maybe one of these guys (not Kloden unless Bruyneel pulls off some tactical miracle) will top 5 at the Tour. Favourites IMO are racing in the Dauphine.

 

[dlwssonic]

But that is really just one day in five so far. I am sure there are days in training where you will occasionally have to go all out - They are professional athletes after all.

But if you constantly go hard then your ability to perform at your 'peak' will drop. I am just suggesting that he has this year not consistently gone so hard so often that if will effect him come the tour.

Cue Wiggins dropping out the first mountain stage of the Tour due to exhaustion...

If wiggins drops in the mountain stages, I don't think it will be the first one.
Its the second and third week he should be worried about.
Where usually the riders are attacking more and recovery is very important.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

If wiggins drops in the mountain stages, I don't think it will be the first one.
Its the second and third week he should be worried about.
Where usually the riders are attacking more and recovery is very important.

I was just kidding about dropping out on the first one. If he did it would show I had been talking rubbish.

 

[airstream]

Which stage? ITT? Flogged himself senseless. A month and a half too early. Andy Schleck said it best, perhaps he's peaked to early.

Senseless to think that Wiggins needs over peak to destoy everyone in TT this way. It's almost guaranteed he'll do the first 42k TT very strongly as well. Can he ride it even better? I don't think so. But Evans will in no way be able to improve drastically. Menchov just eliminated himself from the list of the contenders for the win at all. He has nothing at the expense of what he might win. But saying "flogged himself senseless" in beyond me.

Post your address and I will mail you some tissues for July when Wiggins shows he's goofed. Nobody did answer my question before about why Contador doesn't peak in June and flog himself. Nobody.

Surely, cos, unlike you, no one has a monosemantic opinion on such overly disputable matters. Probably, you are a sport medicine specialist or something like that?

Seems like you are slowly but surely approaching "Wiggins is a rider of an amateur level". )

 

[dlwssonic]

Senseless to think that Wiggins needs over peak to destoy everyone in TT this way. It's almost guaranteed he'll do the first 42k TT very strongly as well. Can he ride it even better? I don't think so. But Evans will in no way be able to improve drastically. Menchov just eliminated himself from the list of the contenders for the win at all. He has nothing at the expense of what he might win. But saying "flogged himself senseless" in beyond me.


Surely, cos, unlike you, no one has a monosemantic opinion on such overly disputable matters. Probably, you are a sport medicine specialist or something like that?

You are joking right?
In the dauphine 2011
1 Tony Martin (GER) HTC-Highroad 55' 27
6 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 1' 20"

In the tour 2011 after 3 weeks of hard racing
1 Tony Martin (GER) HTC-Highroad 55' 33"
2 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 7"

Yeah Cadel's time improved drastically even after 3 weeks of hard racing where most people's timing decreases due to fatigue.
That just shows how much better he is at his peak.
this was on the exact same course.

 

[Galic Ho]

We've yet to see how much Wiggins will expend in the mountains for the Dauphine. So far he has ridden a great TT and it is the team that are working. If none of the main contenders really attack and put him under pressure he may win with his team having done most of the hard work for him. This has been the case for most of his wins so far.

There is a difference between peaking and exertion. i.e. It is surely easier to stay at a 95% 'peak' over a long(er) period of time if you are not always exhausting yourself?

If he fails to win the tour it is more likely because he was not good enough then to do with peaking at the wrong time.

There is a difference between peaking and exertion. Though based on Wiggins palmares it's sufficient to say he has done a considerably high number percentage wise in both at races he has won. Why? He's done a lot better than he has done before. Wiggins fans don't want me to review the 2006 Tour do they? He was dropped by the Groupetto first mountain stage.

Some interesting points from Galic. Here is an alternative view, though not based on any detailed knowledge, more from watching what seems to be the Sky theory:

1 With (legitimate) sports science, it is easier to keep a longer peak than when people were training by feel, due to undertanding of nutrition, power meters, better testing etc
2 It is very difficult to get the timing right for a short peak, such as the three weeks of a tour. Some riders spend years learning how to do this (e.g. Evans).
3 Wiggins doesn't have a decade of learning how to peak for a tour, so for him the lower risk option is to go for the long steady peak. Plus he has the obsessive nature that means he can try this. Schleck for instance would not be able to train like this over a long time, though someone like Evans probably could.
4 As Don't be Late just said, Wiggins seems to be racing hard in bursts, but that is not the same as peaking for an event - though there is no doubt he is closer to his peak than other riders
5 A question: Does the long steady peak approach make it more or less likely that a rider will have a bad day? It is reasonable to hope that it makes it less likely, but we don't have the evidence

Anyway, all will become clear in a month. I just hope they all stay upright so we can see who is best by the end, and that Wiggins wins of course

1. Nobody is going by feel anymore. That is a myth the Armstrong PR machine made up. Though some people are clearly peaking for a specific event. Hitting a very low body fat percentage is not actually a great idea for a long period of time. With body builders for example, they look good, but are at their weakest when competing. GT riders at the end of a three week period are actually weaker than the first week (assuming uber doping isn't happening). So does that mean you peak in the final week? Yes recovery wise, it's about timing your physical endurance right. It'll depreciate over 3 weeks, but the key is not exerting too much by being super duper strong too early. Peaking in terms of overall strength...nope, not possible unless uber doping is happening (epo days are kind of over).

2. Correct. But take it on a case by case basis. Riders know what it feels like to hit their max. When my weight is low, I can tell if I've dropped even half a kilo. Heck I can tell at any fitness level roughly where I am. It's understanding how your own body reacts over time and getting that right. Wiggins is the only one who really knows. Getting your form just right so you're at your max ever day, even when attrition occurs in recovery versus your rival is hard.

3. True. The above point validates this. Bigger spread for form is easier...for some people. It is also massively riskier. You don't notice slight deteriorations, slight fatigue easier. Peaking massively once, you can feel everytime you work out that you're strong. Over a long period of time, the sensations become more habitual...leaving you susceptible. Again, it's feeling and instinct here. It is possible to peak over a longer period, May to July...only exceptionally gifted riders have pulled this off.

Hence why I chose Contador as an example. If he can't these days, who can? Andy Schleck I think is one of a few people who can very quickly gain form. Even when they should be depreciating performance wise as a GT goes along. It explains his racing before July and explains how his first week of last years Tour was off but by the third week he was there. He's a freak. A genetic freak with the right combo of recovery, varying muscle fibre groups allowing him to climb in varying styles and a phenomenally high VO2max. Wiggins is probably doing what he feels is best for him. I just think he should be not exerting himself so much...that reveals a lot about his mental focus, perhaps his fears and worse it leaves him physically susceptible sickness (he's thin) and perceptionally not as astute as those peaking for a short period.

4. There is little difference. If it's taking most of his talent and exertion to get his wins, that leaves little for improvement. Worse, it's only been one week races. Even worse is the notion his rivals haven't come close peak wise or exertion wise and they aren't too far behind over one week and their GT palmares over 3 weeks are historically better. Something IMO will give. It might not...but thats a slim chance. Slim.

5. Yes. For a number of reasons. You can be at a high level over an extended period and still have a superior patch, where you really patch. Easier to do if you're phenomenally gifted. Harder to do if you're not. Alternatively you can peak over a period at roughly the same level with no major fluctuation. Evans did this last year...or appeared to do so. He had an early peak with good all round form, dropped a lot of it after April and worked back towards it for July. Wiggins has gone even earlier. Peaked earlier and hasn't appeared to slow down. Historically those who are so good for so long, have a bad day. Whether that is their body catching up to them or simply their rivals being superior...only that rider will know. As I suggested, physiologically wise, being at the same level for so long can leave you complacent on any fatigue that sets in. Also depending on your natural recovery rate, your body could be over trained, or in need of more rest. One big hard day can break you. Guy just peaking in theory should deal with it better...which is what we tend to see in GT's. Wiggins winning the Tour would be against the trend physiologically...

 

[greenedge]

In case you aren't joking: I can't imagine there's anything to be gained in that tactic other than giving Wiggins a sense of superiority and based on his increasing by the day smugness (Just my own observation) and the implied inevitable nature of his coming Tour win, I can't see him getting any more confident. I think that he's probably feeling that he will have a resounding Tour win on par with the best of Indurain. Blowing all the contenders out of the water in the long TT by minutes and defending strongly in the mountains.
Ideally of course that his what he's hoping for.

Evans is no Claudio though against the clock.

 

[greenedge]

Because they attacked and then Wiggins waited and brought them back...

Or are you asking why Wiggins didnt go with their attack?.
Because it wasnt like he actually lost any time

I think everyone acknowledges he is a worse descender than Evans though, and that he is not great.

That is only because he had teammates there.

 

[greenedge]

Does make them a bad team just because they have money and anyway with what BMC are paying their top riders that is a pretty hypocritical statement.

And anyway one troll post doesnt deserve or require another.

No one was saying they are a bad team.
Sky along with BMC do have some of the highest paid cyclists in their team.

Wiggins would be a bit lower than Evans, Cav should be on more than Hushovd/ Gilbert and they also have Froome, EBH and had to lure Porte away.

Overall Sky would have spent more on their cyclists ( Flecha, Eisel and a few others could be leaders in their own rights )- than BMC.

 

[greenedge]

Cav is no longer at the top of the food chain. Wiggins is much more important now for Team Sky. He can write even bigger history than Cav last year. I'm eager to finally see him in the mountains. If he can impress me as much there as in the time trials then we have a Vélo d'Or winner I think.

If Boonen or JROD win the WC i think they could also challenge.

 

[rghysens]

If Boonen or JROD win the WC i think they could also challenge.

but not much more. If Wiggins will win the tour (not unlikely at all), he'll win velo d'Or. Unless Boonen wins both the olympics and WC (rather unlikely).

 

[greenedge]

I suppose EBH can work for both Cav and Wiggins. But Cav has proven many times he can win without a lead-out anyway.

And then sometimes he does not- the TDF this year will see a very strong sprinting field and most times Cav is reassured by the fact his team has been doing work for him for 50km or so.

Last year when Farrar won that is evidence of his lead out wrong and Cav losing. This year a weakened lead out will result in a few more upsets for Cav and a more outspoken Cav. There is enough depth in the sprinting field this year to ensure that Cav will not win as many stages as usual.

 

[greenedge]

but hold off on your revolution speak.

That will only happen after Wiggins loses this year ( i hope ) and Froome will then completely own next year after taking the mantle of GC leader for Sky.