Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[happychappy]

Nibali's bad TT makes more sense now, as he's still building up.

Yeah, "it's only June".

 

[Ripper]

So Sky have put themselves in the driver's seat as favourites for le Tour. Either ...

They have all peaked (or are near peak) and other teams are building, which means things will be more interesting in July,

... or ...

Sky is UKPS-Ballan, and July will be the biggest farce in years.

Either way, they have pressure now.

 

[mastersracer]

so in summary sky are doped up to their eyeballs? cool.

didn't say that - just said that in today's largely negative GT racing it's not implausible for a team like Sky to deliver Wiggins to the final climb of a day with teammates around him.

 

[The Hitch]

Its quite funny that the 2 most popular threads of the recent days weeks and months, have been the Andy Schleck thread and the Alberto Contador thread.

Even as we approach a tdf showdown between wiggins and evans.

2 guys that wont contest this years TDF but will be the 2 favorites for next year, are the most popular subjects in the run up to this years Grandaddy of them all.

Its very interesting.

Can't wait till the Tour (2013 that is )

 

[El Pistolero]

Who ever starts with bib number 51 will win the Tour.

Alejet

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Its quite funny that the 2 most popular threads of the recent days weeks and months, have been the Andy Schleck thread and the Alberto Contador thread.

Even as we approach a tdf showdown between wiggins and evans.

2 guys that wont contest this years TDF but will be the 2 favorites for next year, are the most popular subjects in the run up to this years Grandaddy of them all.

Its very interesting.

Can't wait till the Tour (2013 that is )

is there even a tour 12?
I've heard there is a race in france this july that Andy is going to use as an preparation for the 13 tour. Nothing else really

 

[The Hitch]

Only saw the end of the first stage. Just noticed his name in the placings from last nights stage. Amazing how SBS in Australia and Keenan in the commentary box fail to mention his name. I simply assumed since I hadn't seen or heard from him that he was going to be in Switzerland.

Didn't the world rennowned cycling experts in Australia say last year that Samu could never contend any gt since he would lose 4 minutes in any time trial?

 

[burning]

Who ever starts with bib number 51 will win the Tour.

How do they arrange numbers to the teams? Obviously number 1 is certain

Obviously last years runner up wears 11 and 3rd wears 21 but when they stop doing this sorting?

 

[The Hitch]

You are joking right?
In the dauphine 2011
1 Tony Martin (GER) HTC-Highroad 55' 27
6 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 1' 20"

In the tour 2011 after 3 weeks of hard racing
1 Tony Martin (GER) HTC-Highroad 55' 33"
2 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team + 7"

Yeah Cadel's time improved drastically even after 3 weeks of hard racing where most people's timing decreases due to fatigue.
That just shows how much better he is at his peak.
this was on the exact same course.

In the Dauphine tt Cuddles raced under far less favorable conditions though. It was raining then. That can account for a bit of the improvement.

The rest simply the fact that there was a TDF at stake in the TDF tt so he went 200%.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

How do they arrange numbers to the teams? Obviously number 1 is certain

Obviously last years runner up wears 11 and 3rd wears 21 but when they stop doing this sorting?

Goes on order of GC position of the team's top-ranked rider last year. Even if that guy isn't team leader.

So assuming all are able to start, Evans wears 1, Schleck 11 (again), Voeckler 21 (as Fränk will be on the same team as Andy), Samu 31. Then it comes down to who starts. If Cunego starts, Lampre get numbers 41-49. Then it's Basso, then Danielson.

So if Cunego and Basso both start, Liquigas get #51. If one of them miss out, Garmin get it. If both stay at home, it passes down to AG2R because of Jean-Christophe Péraud's 9th last year (allowing for Contador's DQ). Sky's top finisher last year was Rigoberto Urán in 24th, and they haven't signed anybody who finished above him, so they'll probably have pretty high numbers.

 

[blaxland]

The question should be Who wont win this years TDF??Thats easy Schleck wont win=not enough racing/to many injuries.Menchoz=never to be seen/age is catching up on him.(to highly rated)Nibali=??could be foxing.Wiggins=not likely,no one since Lance has won both the Dauphine and the tour.(and we know Wiggins is no Lance)so it looks like to me its Cadel's tour to loose..

 

[Galic Ho]

Didn't the world rennowned cycling experts in Australia say last year that Samu could never contend any gt since he would lose 4 minutes in any time trial?

Renowned idiots is a better catch phrase. The crap they were saying regarding Evans last night was gold. After I feel asleep watching the ascent, I woke for the descent and they had some pearlers. I meet Matthew Keenan, he's getting a smack in the head...the rot he has been saying is ludicrous. Two different pronounciations for every European riders name, beratting Evans but not the Sky Aussies...there is lots more. Unpleasant viewing.

Oh Samu...right. Yes I think so. I've always said Samu can podium. Valverde to. If Menchov and Evans are a chance Samu is as well. Better climber slightly lower chrono. The Aussie experts contradict themselves all the time...they think their 'exquisite' dialog and conversational pieces make the viewing better. It doesn't. Makes the viewing harder to put up with.

It's a sad day when Mike Tomolaris is the sane one in the commentary box. Dave McKenzie last night was contradicting himself left, right and centre. Mr Hawaiian Shirt Rupert Guiness needs to be moth balled and shipped back to Fairfax media. After Samu lost time early on last year they said he'd do nothing...not what happened exactly. The Aussie commentators have a tendency of over exagerating an Aussie's ability or whoever is the flavour of the moment and massively misrepresenting other riders who aren't Australian. Only Spanish GC rider last year who was a chance of losing 4 minutes in a chrono was JRod. Lots of things were said about Samu. I try and ignore the garbage...there is a lot of it to filter through.

And they finally showed him on footage last night. Didn't see Menchov though. Not that it matters, they'll be there in July.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Renowned idiots is a better catch phrase. The crap they were saying regarding Evans last night was gold. After I feel asleep watching the ascent, I woke for the descent and they had some pearlers. I meet Matthew Keenan, he's getting a smack in the head...the rot he has been saying is ludicrous. Two different pronounciations for every European riders name, beratting Evans but not the Sky Aussies...there is lots more. Unpleasant viewing.

Oh Samu...right. Yes I think so. I've always said Samu can podium. Valverde to. If Menchov and Evans are a chance Samu is as well. Better climber slightly lower chrono. The Aussie experts contradict themselves all the time...they think their 'exquisite' dialog and conversational pieces make the viewing better. It doesn't. Makes the viewing harder to put up with.

It's a sad day when Mike Tomolaris is the sane one in the commentary box. Dave McKenzie last night was contradicting himself left, right and centre. Mr Hawaiian Shirt Rupert Guiness needs to be moth balled and shipped back to Fairfax media. After Samu lost time early on last year they said he'd do nothing...not what happened exactly. The Aussie commentators have a tendency of over exagerating an Aussie's ability or whoever is the flavour of the moment and massively misrepresenting other riders who aren't Australian. Only Spanish GC rider last year who was a chance of losing 4 minutes in a chrono was JRod. Lots of things were said about Samu. I try and ignore the garbage...there is a lot of it to filter through.

And they finally showed him on footage last night. Didn't see Menchov though. Not that it matters, they'll be there in July.

Who is this Menchov that you speak of? And this Samu Sanchez?

Yes, some riders do get missed by certain commentators.

As for the Tour I think it's looking great for Wiggins. Doesn't matter too much that no rider has won the TDF after winning the Dauphne since Armstrong. Wiggins seems to be a rider that thrives on a consistent peak, this year at least. If he can peak to some extent in March, in late April and then in early June, then why not also in July? There are some riders who seem to just have the one peak in them in a season and others who are a little more versatile. Clearly Wiggins is in the latter category.

It's scary to think that he might have 2 minutes up his sleeve on all his rivals going into the Alps, though this could make for better racing. We might see the Tour of descending, with the likes of Evans and Nibali attacking down the Grand Columbier, Perysourde, and anywhere else possible. If Bradley can keep this form than it seems unlikely that his rivals can take major time out of him on ascents, particularly considering the lite on mountains this year. On La Tossierre we might hardly see an attack. With a guy like Porte drilling it, who will be able to attack?

I think it will be a great Tour though. Having a long ITT early on will create significant time gaps; at least this year the race is not backended.

 

[dlwssonic]

Who is this Menchov that you speak of? And this Samu Sanchez?

Yes, some riders do get missed by certain commentators.

As for the Tour I think it's looking great for Wiggins. Doesn't matter too much that no rider has won the TDF after winning the Dauphne since Armstrong. Wiggins seems to be a rider that thrives on a consistent peak, this year at least. If he can peak to some extent in March, in late April and then in early June, then why not also in July? There are some riders who seem to just have the one peak in them in a season and others who are a little more versatile. Clearly Wiggins is in the latter category.

It's scary to think that he might have 2 minutes up his sleeve on all his rivals going into the Alps, though this could make for better racing. We might see the Tour of descending, with the likes of Evans and Nibali attacking down the Grand Columbier, Perysourde, and anywhere else possible. If Bradley can keep this form than it seems unlikely that his rivals can take major time out of him on ascents, particularly considering the lite on mountains this year. On La Tossierre we might hardly see an attack. With a guy like Porte drilling it, who will be able to attack?

I think it will be a great Tour though. Having a long ITT early on will create significant time gaps; at least this year the race is not backended.

Porte drilling it?
More like Basso, vandenert, froome or some super strong RSNT domestique.
Wiggins won't be able to win the tour with that type of peak.
The other riders would be at 100%.
2 minutes is a bit far out.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Who here still thinks Andy has a legitimate shot at winning the Tour? I would like to hear what your reasons are for thinking so when both Bruyneel and Andersen are casting doubts.

 

[Richeypen]

Who here still thinks Andy has a legitimate shot at winning the Tour? I would like to hear what your reasons are for thinking so when both Bruyneel and Andersen are casting doubts.

I don't think that he will win it but I also wouldn't be surprised if he did. Mainly for reasons that have to be discussed in a different sub forum.

 

[TheEnoculator]

I don't think that he will win it but I also wouldn't be surprised if he did. Mainly for reasons that have to be discussed in a different sub forum.

Why not discuss it here? It's a valid discussion for this thread.

 

[airstream]

Who here still thinks Andy has a legitimate shot at winning the Tour? I would like to hear what your reasons are for thinking so when both Bruyneel and Andersen are casting doubts.

You simply don't get that Andy personifies a separate climber universe. And if he with Frankie, Juanjo or Rolland will commit an even little skirmish out of attacks, it will be an anticipatory end of the Tour for Wiggins despite on many TT kilometers. It has nothing to do with the Dauphine outcome because we have no clue to what extent Andy tested himself before crashing in TT.

 

[TheEnoculator]

You simply don't get that Andy personifies a separate climber universe. And if he with Frankie, Juanjo or Rolland will commit an even little skirmish out of attacks, it will be an anticipatory end of the Tour for Wiggins despite on many TT kilometers.

Are you suggesting both Bruyneel and Andersen don't get that either? I'll agree that Andy is an extremely talented climber, right up there with Contador, but to expect him to be flying in 3 weeks when he's been out of shape for most of the year? The last I checked, 2 + 2 still equals to 4. I would think that Bruyneel himself has been around long enough to know when someone really has a shot or not. Right now he doesn't think so.

 

[Richeypen]

Why not discuss it here? It's a valid discussion for this thread.

No its not. Clinic stuff belongs in the clinic

 

[TheEnoculator]

No its not. Clinic stuff belongs in the clinic

Ah, I see you are one of "those" cycling fans.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ah, I see you are one of "those" cycling fans.

Ah, I see you are one of "those" dudes.

 

[Richeypen]

Ah, I see you are one of "those" cycling fans.

What is that meant to mean?

 

[Red Rick]

Contador will win the Tour, for the reason you can look in my signature

 

[airstream]

Are you suggesting both Bruyneel and Andersen don't get that either? I'll agree that Andy is an extremely talented climber, right up there with Contador, but to expect him to be flying in 3 weeks when he's been out of shape for most of the year? The last I checked, 2 + 2 still equals to 4. I would think that Bruyneel himself has been around long enough to know when someone really has a shot or not. Right now he doesn't think so.

It's called diplomacy. No director sportif says his rider would win and wouldn't promise anything. I just believe in Andy and his higher integral level as a GT rider compared to Evans and Wiggins. One global victim, the whole season, couldn't be accidental. He did a great training work and we will see fruits of this work in the Tour.

Where a genius and just a rider differ is that a genius can refute any dogmas and "dauphine" balances of forces.