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Who will win 2013 GIRO?

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Who will win 2013 GIRO?

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airstream

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I think people underrate the general level of this year's Giro because of 2 facts maybe:
- a new guy won;
- to elevate the Vuelta even more.
. Yes, the riders behaved too cautiously because everyone felt he's not stronger or stronger not that much to get away. They could ride faster in case someone could have shaken the race a bit. But to say they were weak is ridiculous.
 
Aug 23, 2012
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The question is who was Ryder Hesjedal before the 2012 Giro and if Rodriguez ever had the opportunity for win a GT? Also a "GT rider" like Thomas De Gendt with win options... Please.
 
airstream said:
They could ride faster in case someone could have shaken the race a bit. But to say they were weak is ridiculous.
Agreed. After all, how can we know how strong was Purito (Giro version) compared to Purito (Vuelta version)? We have no means to compare him. I can't find the data now, but when I looked at it the VAMs in the Giro were far from being poor.
 
airstream said:
I think people underrate the general level of this year's Giro because of 2 facts maybe:
- a new guy won;
- to elevate the Vuelta even more.
. Yes, the riders behaved too cautiously because everyone felt he's not stronger or stronger not that much to get away. They could ride faster in case someone could have shaken the race a bit. But to say they were weak is ridiculous.
It just seems impossible to me that Hesjedal would have been able to follow the amazing Spanish threesome in the Vuelta. Just a feeling.
 
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cineteq said:
He was just a Canadian cyclist riding for Garmin and Purito will have a great opportunity to win a GT if he chooses to ride the right GTs.

You mean the "Vuelta a los Muros de España"? Dont see Purito with opportunities in the Giro one more time. First because of the age. Second because of the new GT's context.
 
theyoungest said:
It just seems impossible to me that Hesjedal would have been able to follow the amazing Spanish threesome in the Vuelta. Just a feeling.
Those guys made it into their own "club race" everybody elses was relegated to spectator status.. Would not be any different for Hesjedal.
 
Jason_Mercier said:
You mean the "Vuelta a los Muros de España"? Dont see Purito with opportunities in the Giro one more time. First because of the age. Second because of the new GT's context.
Bonus points (20 for 1st place) for all stages in the Giro ring a bell? His window of opportunity is reducing, but he should be able to keep a similar shape for next year.
 

airstream

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theyoungest said:
It just seems impossible to me that Hesjedal would have been able to follow the amazing Spanish threesome in the Vuelta. Just a feeling.

If he were fresh? He wouldn't, but he would have defended very decently. People just often says Purito allegedly vastly improved compared to the Giro. Personally I don't think so.

Eshnar said:
I can't find the data now, but when I looked at it the VAMs in the Giro were far from being poor.
I heard the Vuelta VAMs were weak. Yes, Contador often calmed down after unsuccessful attacks. But the Giro is not different in this regard. By and large the race was uncovered once on Pampeago.
 
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cineteq said:
Bonus points (20 for 1st place) for all stages in the Giro ring a bell? His window of opportunity is reducing, but he should be able to keep a similar shape for next year.

Finally he will ride the TDF next year. That's why i think he wont have more opportunities in Italia.
 
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airstream said:
Such riders don't exist. He would have blown away from the peloton on flat. Brajkovic is 58 as minimum.



Previous 5 years clearly show that TT's decide more than mountains if we look into contenders of comparable level. There is a 50 km TT. Basso will lose to Wiggins 3 minutes in case of the best scenario. The main problem is he can not get away on pedalabele climbs and the stages are not difficult enough that the opponents would be dropped due to tiredness. Next year he won't have a team. I don't see Basso get on the podium if 2-3 main contenders won't fail.

those riders do exist. for instance david livramento is 182 x55 :rolleyes:
 
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3832_David_Livramento.JPG
 
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Eshnar said:
Meh. Purito made it, so why not Hesjedal.

+1, I think Hesjedal could have made it if he had come to the Vuelta with his Giro form. Rodriguez's performance in the Vuelta wasn't that much better than his Giro performance, so I think Hesjedal would have been up there with 3 Spaniards.
 
Parrulo said:
didn't jens link us a few weeks ago to a blog with ascent times and watts calculations that said purito was riding like 0.3 w/Kg higher then he was at the giro?

yeah but the Vuelta stages were mostly 1 climb where as the Giro stages were longer and harder so its hard to compare.

My own suspicion though is that Purito, who struggled with the 2011 Giro, would have been slightly more on it at his home race.

As a defensive rider, following Contador attacking 8k out on stages was more likely to bring the absolute best out of Purito. As a Punchy rider the more explosive stages of the Vuelta suited him more as did the home support and the heat.

Also worth remembering that in his Giro prep Purito was already flying at Vuelta a Pais Vasco and then Fleche Wallone, in April.

In his Vuelta prep though he didnt even contest his beloved Vuelta a Burgos in order to make sure that peak form hit at exactly the right place.

So would Hejsedal have been able to follow the 3 spaniards at the Vuelta. I dont know. My suspicion is that he would have done better than recovering Gesink and tired Froome but still been a little bit behind the 3 caballeros.
 
From interviews I've read over the last month or so Porte, Rogers and Kennaugh have all said they're very likely to be riding the Giro with Wiggins.

Obviously there's some doubt whether Rogers will even be on the team next year but that's for another forum...

I would say Cataldo is also very likely. Wiggins likes Knees as his wind shield on the flat so he'll probably be there. I think Eisel will be there as road captain and presumably one of the Colombians for the Giro clmbs.

So something like:

Wiggins
Porte
Uran/Henao
Rogers
Cataldo
Kennaugh
Knees
Swift
Eisel

Leaving the Tour line-up as something like:

Froome
Wiggins
Uran/Henao
Kiryienka
Siutsov
EBH
Thomas
Stannard
Eisel
 
JRanton said:
From interviews I've read over the last month or so Porte, Rogers and Kennaugh have all said they're very likely to be riding the Giro with Wiggins.

Obviously there's some doubt whether Rogers will even be on the team next year but that's for another forum...

I would say Cataldo is also very likely. Wiggins likes Knees as his wind shield on the flat so he'll probably be there. I think Eisel will be there as road captain and presumably one of the Colombians for the Giro clmbs.

So something like:

Wiggins
Porte
Uran/Henao
Rogers
Cataldo
Kennaugh
Knees
Swift
Eisel

Leaving the Tour line-up as something like:

Froome
Wiggins
Uran/Henao
Kiryienka
Siutsov
EBH
Thomas
Stannard
Eisel

Kiriyenka is one of the riders who really loves the giro so maybe he will be in that team.
 
The Hitch said:
yeah but the Vuelta stages were mostly 1 climb where as the Giro stages were longer and harder so its hard to compare.

My own suspicion though is that Purito, who struggled with the 2011 Giro, would have been slightly more on it at his home race.

As a defensive rider, following Contador attacking 8k out on stages was more likely to bring the absolute best out of Purito. As a Punchy rider the more explosive stages of the Vuelta suited him more as did the home support and the heat.

Also worth remembering that in his Giro prep Purito was already flying at Vuelta a Pais Vasco and then Fleche Wallone, in April.

In his Vuelta prep though he didnt even contest his beloved Vuelta a Burgos in order to make sure that peak form hit at exactly the right place.

So would Hejsedal have been able to follow the 3 spaniards at the Vuelta. I dont know. My suspicion is that he would have done better than recovering Gesink and tired Froome but still been a little bit behind the 3 caballeros.

that is indeed a very good point, maybe purito was missing that little bit he had at the vuelta.
 
JRanton said:
So something like:

Wiggins
Porte
Uran/Henao
Rogers
Cataldo
Kennaugh
Knees
Swift
Eisel

Leaving the Tour line-up as something like:

Froome
Wiggins
Uran/Henao
Kiryienka
Siutsov
EBH
Thomas
Stannard
Eisel

That is about how I have it. I wonder about the merit of sending Swift to the Giro though when there are only a couple of sprint stages. Could do some grunt work but in that case it may be better to blood Puccio. Eisel may sit out if he focuses a bit more on the classics, leaving room for Kiryienka or DLG.
 

airstream

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I don't know the Giro data, but Vuelta was weak. Iirc, they never exceeded even 1650 m/h. Contador at Verbier - 1860, Schleck and Contador ~ 1700, so... Yes, ascents often turned out to be positional cos' Contador attacked, Rodriguez followed and the speed instantly died out. However as for the Giro we have zero evidence to think the riders went full blast too.

Recently Kiri said in the interview that he is presumably planned for the Tour. Sincerely hope to see our guys in the 100th TdF! :) On a good day, Vasya is better mountain domestique than anyone including Wiggins.


Ah, I'm sorry. I misunderstood. They never rode slower than 6 Wt / kg, hence they always beat 1650 m/h. What to say? Nothing changes for the better.