Who will win Amstel Gold Race?

[Zinoviev Letter]

Betancur yes. sick i believe. Martin's season hasn't been great so far. And with no finish uphill he will struggle to win. Valverde is much better pick, or Kwiatek.

I hadn't heard that about Betancur. As for Martin, I don't think he has been in any races so far where he was expecting to do anything other than pick up racing miles. That makes it hard to know what form he has.

As for the finish, wel l most of the usual guys, including Martin, will have to race it harder if they hope to win.

 

[Guybrush]

The next week La Ronca will be fat and furious

 

[jaylew]

Decent chance of a small group coming in together; nobody faster than Kwiatkowski in that eventuality, though Valverde comes close. The question is: will Alejandro, Purito, Costa, Ulissi, Martin, Kreuziger, et al be able to drop the decidedly less climb-happy Kwiato to avoid that scenario?

I don't know. I'd take Valverde over Kwia in a sprint and give a few others an even shot.

 

[Kwibus]

Ok, Poels for a surprise win. Based on hope.

 

[Sciatic]

Voeckler splitting things up is unavoidable. Hes finally coming into some form.

When he goes many will be in his wheels and hopefully they will help pull the race apart.

Cool photo: Tommy always making sure the camera is on him. And even on a rainy day, it's so easy to tell which team is which because the kits are all very different. This year even when the weather is good its tough to tell the riders apart from a distance. And I miss those Rabo colors!

 

[Oliver]

Voted 4 Valverde but actually I hope Kwiatkowski.

 

[markene2]

Rebellin of course, he will be ready!

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Voted for Mike Flowers

Can stick with the best up the ramps and outsprint the rest.

Providing a break doesn't get it - can't see past Kwiatkowski FTW !

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Cool photo: Tommy always making sure the camera is on him. And even on a rainy day, it's so easy to tell which team is which because the kits are all very different. This year even when the weather is good its tough to tell the riders apart from a distance. And I miss those Rabo colors!

yep, the Rabo kit was great in the peloton. Gotta say Belkin isn't bad either for me. Stands out pretty good.

Lots of acting going on with TV, but he often follows up with "risky" racing.

 

[WillemS]

Gesink might be out with heart problems.

NOS.nl (Google Translate)

 

[HSNHSN]

yep, the Rabo kit was great in the peloton. Gotta say Belkin isn't bad either for me. Stands out pretty good.

Lots of acting going on with TV, but he often follows up with "risky" racing.

The current Saxo-Tinkoff outfits are quite recognisable as well. And with the Alonso team coming up next year, I hope for some spectacular outfit next year. Extravagant team owners should choose extravagant team outfits, right?

OT: I see that the name Ulissi is mentioned a few times in here and I wonder if he's ready for the distance of the race yet. For now, I consider him just to be an outsider, but very likely to develop to be a contender in a few years time.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Snipped..

OT: I see that the name Ulissi is mentioned a few times in here and I wonder if he's ready for the distance of the race yet. For now, I consider him just to be an outsider, but very likely to develop to be a contender in a few years time.

It would be great to see Ulissi in the mix at AGR. At some point you would think his confidence and general development would make him competitive in longer hilly classics. I guess its a question of proving before believing (from fan perspective).

 

[Matdum94]

Gonna go with Ben Swift after that excellent stage win in PV

 

[Carstenbf]

Jrod.

(obviously)

 

[BigMac]

Costa the one with less votes.

 

[Hugo87]

Costa the one with less votes.

Truth be said, he's best result on Amstel it's a 19th place and his form on Pais Basco wasn't super, most people don't have their fate so high on him like us, obvious biased fans .

At least you know that 1 vote on the poll belongs to you.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Costa the one with less votes.

He has never been brilliant in the Gold Race and he hasn't been on good form recently

 

[BigMac]

Well, he never came to AGR as leader though. And we all know how he performs when not leading 'x' race or doesn't have any personal goals on sight. And he snatched an 11th place in the Worlds two years ago. Plus he's a great 1 day rider. Plus the Cauberg is a climb that somewhat suits him.

Again, I don't think his form in PV was subpar? Iirc he even said he was feeling ok after it. He simply wasn't feeling well on the first day because of temperature changes (he said it himself (Matxin confirmed)) (He had been in altitute training in Sierra Nevada until the day before). After it, he had no more objectives in the race and clearly decided to drop everywhere on every stage. One would think he was sparing himself precisely for AGR and the rest of the Ardennes.

[...]

At least you know that 1 vote on the poll belongs to you.

You mean the single vote on Costa? That wasn't me, I voted for Gerrans.

 

[CanSprint]

Tom-Jelte Slagter on the podium...

 

[barmaher]

I also think that Gerrans will be tough to beat.

If he is on TDU form, the course suits him perfectly. Valverde seems to be coming off a peak, and I would find it hard to believe he won't dial it back a bit in anticipation of coming onto the boil again for July.

Kwiatowski is a challenger, and I suppose there is always a chance that Gilbert will recapture some of his old spark.

But apart from Gerrans, Valverde and maybe those two, I rule out the remainder of the list above.

There is a big chance of an outsider.

How about Leukemans?

 

[VeloHuman]

I also think that Gerrans will be tough to beat.

If he is on TDU form, the course suits him perfectly. Valverde seems to be coming off a peak, and I would find it hard to believe he won't dial it back a bit in anticipation of coming onto the boil again for July.

Kwiatowski is a challenger, and I suppose there is always a chance that Gilbert will recapture some of his old spark.

But apart from Gerrans, Valverde and maybe those two, I rule out the remainder of the list above.

There is a big chance of an outsider.

How about Leukemans?

I think Valverde and Kwiato are favorites, sure, but why are you ruling out a blazing Joaquim Rodriguez and last year's winner Roman Kreuziger, who looks great this year?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Costa fantalk

Well that's all fine and well, but you can't expect people to vote on him as one of the favorites with the given facts

I don't dispute he can do well in AGR or even win it. I'm just saying that, given the facts of last years and last weeks, you can't expect people to vote for him in this poll

 

[Netserk]

I think Valverde and Kwiato are favorites, sure, but why are you ruling out a blazing Joaquim Rodriguez and last year's winner Roman Kreuziger, who looks great this year?

Purito on the new course? Never.

 

[barmaher]

Yes, I think J-Rod has a very small chance on the new course.

Maybe I am over hasty ruling out Kreuziger.

 

[BigMac]

Well that's all fine and well, but you can't expect people to vote on him as one of the favorites with the given facts

I don't dispute he can do well in AGR or even win it. I'm just saying that, given the facts of last years and last weeks, you can't expect people to vote for him in this poll

Then they are being unreasonable. You don't have to have perfomed in a certain race in the past to be one of the favourites. And what are last week's facts? That his form was not good in País Vasco? Not true. He had one bad day for the reasons I already mentioned. That's not Costa fantalk, those are the facts.

I see more people voting for Slagter and Ulissi, for instance, than for Costa. Those two have never stand out in AGR either. And what was Dan Martin's best result in AGR? Has his form been that good recently? No. Yet I think those are perfectly reasonable choices, so why can't I expect people to vote for Costa?

The indisputable truth is that Costa is always underrated by most and is usually out of the pre-race favourites, at least for those in this forum. But when he does perform, people don't seem surprised, so I really don't get it.

Which leaves me to the conclusion that most vote according to their favourite riders, even when there's a poll appealing to member's logic rather than fanboysm.