Who will win Amstel Gold Race?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The Cauberg has never been Purito's hill. I've been at the finish a plethora of times and all I've ever seen Rodriguez do is struggle up the final hill, or even drop at the Keuteberg already.

I think what hurts Purito the most is the amount of corners, narrow roads and positioning in the AGR. Same reason why Valverde, except for 3 years where he finished 2nd, 6th and 4th, almost never does well here

 

[lastplacerider]

Think Gerrans dropped out of PV last year too. Just saving himself for Amstel. Cunego did well in PV...until final stage ITT. May not be a winner at AGR but I like his podium chances. He is a former winner.

 

[BigMac]

So he stayed away on the decent...what about the flat 3km after? We both know to stay away in these situations it is the group behind that decides whether the move sticks or not. I don't see any reason it is ludicrous to consider it happening. Yes I agree these finshes are very different, but the point still holds, Rodriguez stayed away on a flat finish and a longer one, than he'll have to on Sunday.
I'm curious to see if Katusha will have Moreno or Rodriguez leadout the other up the Cauberg, or have one attack and the other mark Valverde and wait for the sprint. If one of them doesn't try they might as well not turn up.

I also don't think Purito will ever perform as Gilbert in the Cauberg. The Cauberg is 8% and on this type of slopes what counts the most, after the punch, is your speed. If you want to get a gap on the Cauberg itself you should be a decent sprinter (in theory), what Purito is not. He makes the difference on higher slopes. Main reason he got bested by Dan Martin on the 6/7% slopes of the climb to Ans in LBL.

 

[Afrank]

Gonna wait until after Brabantse Pijl to vote. But I expect Valverde to be right up there, definitely a podium. Would like to see Betancur do well also, but his Ardennes are in doubt at the moment.

And that's exactly the thing I was waiting for before voting. Phil for the win I think.

Liking Gallopin's chances as well.

 

[Pentacycle]

Anybody who can get a gap on the final Cauberg ascent is most likely gone for good, even if he's Rodriguez or if someone in the chasing group still has a teammate. It's a hard task to bring back the strongest rider in the race.

 

[Netserk]

Anybody who can get a gap on the final Cauberg ascent is most likely gone for good, even if he's Rodriguez or if someone in the chasing group still has a teammate. It's a hard task to bring back the strongest rider in the race.

Like Gilbert last year?

 

[Pentacycle]

Like Gilbert last year?

Did he get a gap? I haven't rewatched it in a while.

Edit: yes he did.

 

[Netserk]

Yes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nns0plkt7zI

 

[Netserk]

IF (a big one) Purito is the first over the Cauberg, his gap will most likely be under 5 seconds. More likely 2 or 3. No ****ing way in hell will he be able to hold such a gap.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Voted Gerrans. Win from a group sprint.

 

[pigoonse]

Thinking Gilbert is going to win but already voted for Kwiatkowski. It's gonna be good this year...feeling it, cant wait

 

[Fzotrlool]

I also don't think Purito will ever perform as Gilbert in the Cauberg. The Cauberg is 8% and on this type of slopes what counts the most, after the punch, is your speed. If you want to get a gap on the Cauberg itself you should be a decent sprinter (in theory), what Purito is not. He makes the difference on higher slopes. Main reason he got bested by Dan Martin on the 6/7% slopes of the climb to Ans in LBL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6Wvlmr-N6w

He was getting close in 2011 against a Gilbert in top shape. Should at least give it a try this year. Maybe a little earlier on. Otherwise, they got Moreno, who is a slightly better rouleur.

 

[Kokoso]

Kreuziger at this point last year was little more than a bust who never lived up to his potential and didn't seem likely to do much but domestique and scrape top 10s in stage races. He was given a lot more leeway than the 2 time defending Lombardi and Uci world ranking champion, can hope for.

You are too harsh here on him. Are you following Ryo Hazuki style now? Year before he was third at T-A, sixth at Romandie, sixth at Trentino, sixth at TdS...and he was overloaded with racing days by Astana so considering this he did pretty well. And last Ardennes clasic he did was LBL 2012 where he finished fourth.

 

[Kokoso]

Hasn't the course changed since Frank won?

Kreuziger only won because he was allowed into the break. And only won from the break because no one thought he could do it. Once bitten twice shy, he will not be allowed to get away this year.

Purito - no chance to get into a break. Its a flat finish and the last climb is not long/steep enough to get a huge margin.

Best chance for most is a breakaway. Otherwise, small group at the finish won by quickest sprinter.

Hence why I vote for Kwia. And a few quid at 15/2

Kreuziger won because he was flying after he gone clear. I think he even increased his lead over the bunch.

 

[ILovecycling]

You are too harsh here on him. Are you following Ryo Hazuki style now? Year before he was third at T-A, sixth at Romandie, sixth at Trentino, sixth at TdS...and he was overloaded with racing days by Astana so considering this he did pretty well. And last Ardennes clasic he did was LBL 2012 where he finished fourth.

Hitch is right,he wasnt considered a future classics favourite/winner and his GT were poor (giro one was pretty good tho) so expectations were really low on him.Last year he improved a lot.

 

[Kokoso]

Hitch is right,he wasnt considered a future classics favourite/winner and his GT were poor (giro one was pretty good tho) so expectations were really low on him.Last year he improved a lot.

Nobody was talking about if he was considered future GT or classic winner so I don't understant you.

 

[theyoungest]

A shame Terpstra isn't racing. Would have a fair chance if he'd be in the fav. group over the penultimate Cauberg.

Indeed. He even got close on the former, harder, course. So this easier one should suit him even better.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Kreuziger won because he was flying after he gone clear. I think he even increased his lead over the bunch.

I agree that Kreuziger was, by far, the strongest rider at Amstel last year, but it's also true that the favourites let him slip away. Still it should be pretty obvious to anyone that the strongest rider won that race

 

[BigMac]

I agree that Kreuziger was, by far, the strongest rider at Amstel last year, but it's also true that the favourites let him slip away. Still it should be pretty obvious to anyone that the strongest rider won that race

I don't think Kreuziger was the strongest.

You think that had it come to a sprint up the Cauberg against the likes of Valverde, Gilbert, Gerrans and the others, or a select group sprinting to the finish line, Kreuziger would have won?

Can't see how he was the strongest (just my opinion).

 

[Kokoso]

I don't think Kreuziger was the strongest.

You think that had it come to a sprint up the Cauberg against the likes of Valverde, Gilbert, Gerrans and the others, or a select group sprinting to the finish line, Kreuziger would have won?

Can't see how he was the strongest (just my opinion).

Then consider that Kreuziger managed to increase his lead TTing alone against the peloton. That's pretty impresive. Valverde said he was strongest... Maybe he wasn't, one never know. Who else do you think was strongest?

 

[VeloHuman]

Too bad Betancur's knee is bothering him. Would like to see what he's got in the post-Cauberg sprint.

 

[Roude Leiw]

Voted for Gilbert after fleche brabanconne. Was on the fence if i would not vote for Gerrans. I am less convinced for purito (not steep enough to make a real difference) and valverde who seems to be coming down from his stellar early form if the ITT in basque country was any indication

 

[ILovecycling]

Nobody was talking about if he was considered future GT or classic winner so I don't understant you.

Then you are probably a bit dumb.You said he was doing pretty good before that race and what im tryin to explain you lol is that he just wasnt.He didnt live up to expectations years before at all and he wasnt taken seriously by other classics oponnents, simple as that.

 

[greenedge]

Then you are probably a bit dumb.You said he was doing pretty good before that race and what im tryin to explain you lol is that he just wasnt.He didnt live up to expectations years before at all and he wasnt taken seriously by other classics oponnents, simple as that.

Well it's hard as a young rider who has early success, to then match those (really high) expectations. He also had to ride for Nibali and Basso at Liquigas (maybe not that relevant). In 2011 he came 6th (5th with Contador's suspension ) at the Giro and in 2012 3rd at T-A and then won a stage at the Giro. Sure he didn't get on the podium as most of us expected, but still...

He'd also came 4th at the 2011 LBL- so they should have

 

[Nathan12]

Other, Wout Poels.