Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

[Rollthedice]

The weirdest Vuelta in years is about to start. No clear favorite, nobody says they want to win the whole damn thing, everybody is thinking maybe win a stage. The weather will most likely be hot, Froome is not riding, the race is open, the poll too.

Edit. Though apparently I did what was supposed to do , the poll is not working, or is it? Mods, help.

 

[Vesica]

I know Kruijswijk is going to dom for Bennett, but in he’s in Tour shape, I think he got a really nice opportunity here.

Ps. Poll not working.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Voted Superman, with Zaka and Aru on the podium
I've not looked at the parcours yet mind

 

[RedheadDane]

So... what happens if you vote "one Yates" and it's the other Yates who wins?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Think you can change it to Si Yates, Adam isn't riding with the GC in mind

You can actually come into the race a bit undercooked with this parcours since the the race really only will start at stage 13. Obviously you have Alfaguara on stage 4 which can be tricky to some, but its not that hard and then the only real hard stage before stage 13 to Covatilla.

Needless to say what I voted.

 

[Lequack]

Re:

I know Kruijswijk is going to dom for Bennett, but in he’s in Tour shape, I think he got a really nice opportunity here.

Ps. Poll not working.

I doubt Kruijswijk will dom for anyone.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I know Kruijswijk is going to dom for Bennett, but in he’s in Tour shape, I think he got a really nice opportunity here.

Ps. Poll not working.

I doubt Kruijswijk will dom for anyone.

Agreed, why would he? Bennett has a bit higher chances, but its not like he is the big favourite or something. That can be Kuss' job.

 

[Climbing]

Apparently nobody is riding for GC...
There must be a ton of liars out there...

 

[Midnightfright]

I have less off a grasp of this GT than any I can remember. There isn't a single contender who doesn't need to answer a question to win it. With the World's coming up that makes it more difficult to predict but Nibali and Valverde I both think will strongly focus on that

Porte I imagine will be completely focused on the GC here so I slightly favour him although he has never put it together over a whole GT. Yates needs to learn to pace himself.

There is a part of me that suspects Aru will return to form as well..... Too difficult!

I'm going to follow my gut and say Aru

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Apparently nobody is riding for GC...
There must be a ton of liars out there...

Every time there's a hard World Championships loads of riders claim they're only there to prepare for the Worlds and not interested in the GC. Mendrisio is the best recent example, seeing as some - like Cunego - legitimately were like that - he was up there in the GC mix, but as soon as he wasn't feeling it, on the Sierra Nevada stage, he just let go, came in with the bus, then won from the break the next day (after a brief, comical moment where the top teams panicked about him going in the break and started chasing it down before they realised he was now over half an hour back), before dropping out. Evans was another, who was planning to build up for Mendrisio but wasn't going to say no to a GC tilt if it materialised and of course obviously it did.

 

[Laplaz]

Simon Yates will win this I think. Nairo 2nd, MAL 3rd.

 

[DFA123]

I think random sky rider could be a dark horse. And I guess the random will be de la Cruz. Good for at least a podium, and maybe even more.

All of the 'favourites' are so flaky right now. Something always happens to Porte, Yates can't maintain GC winning form for three weeks, Aru and Valverde haven't looked like serious GT riders for two years now, Quintana hasn't reached GT winning form for two years either, Nibali and Pinot returning from health issues, and Uran not good enough.

I think an outsider will take it. Probably de la Cruz, becase Sky.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Think you can change it to Si Yates, Adam isn't riding with the GC in mind

You can actually come into the race a bit undercooked with this parcours since the the race really only will start at stage 13. Obviously you have Alfaguara on stage 4 which can be tricky to some, but its not that hard and then the only real hard stage before stage 13 to Covatilla.

Needless to say what I voted.

The race starts on Stage 9 I think.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I think random sky rider could be a dark horse. And I guess the random will be de la Cruz. Good for at least a podium, and maybe even more.

All of the 'favourites' are so flaky right now. Something always happens to Porte, Yates can't maintain GC winning form for three weeks, Aru and Valverde haven't looked like serious GT riders for two years now, Quintana hasn't reached GT winning form for two years either, Nibali and Pinot returning from health issues, and Uran not good enough.

I think an outsider will take it. Probably de la Cruz, becase Sky.

Well since Valverde didn't exactly race a GT last year it's kind of hard for him to compete for a GT and this year at the Tour he specific said he was showing up in nothing better than race shape. The last GT he competed for GC in he finished on the podium.

Having said that, at this point I like Ion Izagirre to win the Vuelta. He's got what on paper looks like the strongest team around him.

 

[Laplaz]

What about the Bora boys Formolo and Buchmann?

 

[Nirvana]

I can't see past Yates if he'll be able to replicate Giro shape, otherwise will be very difficult to see someone with a legit shot over the others, almost everyone has an asterisk next to fitness or willing to go for GC.
Lopez could be a good pick but he has showed that he prefers high mountains rather than Vuelta muritos and he's likely to bleed time here and there in case of hectic/tricky finales.
Anyway I won't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere and pull a Cobo.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I can't see past Yates if he'll be able to replicate Giro shape, otherwise will be very difficult to see someone with a legit shot over the others, almost everyone has an asterisk next to fitness or willing to go for GC.
Lopez could be a good pick but he has showed that he prefers high mountains rather than Vuelta muritos and he's likely to bleed time here and there in case of hectic/tricky finales.
Anyway I won't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere and pull a Cobo.

Nope, we seem to be in for a Cobo/Horner Vuelta soon enough

How about Buchmann?!

Or Ion Izagirre as some have mentioned. Bennett maybe, he also seems like a nice fella. Or Sepp Kuss?

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I can't see past Yates if he'll be able to replicate Giro shape, otherwise will be very difficult to see someone with a legit shot over the others, almost everyone has an asterisk next to fitness or willing to go for GC.
Lopez could be a good pick but he has showed that he prefers high mountains rather than Vuelta muritos and he's likely to bleed time here and there in case of hectic/tricky finales.
Anyway I won't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere and pull a Cobo.

Nope, we seem to be in for a Cobo/Horner Vuelta soon enough

How about Buchmann?!

Or Ion Izagirre as some have mentioned. Bennett maybe, he also seems like a nice fella. Or Sepp Kuss?

IF Kuss winning it means we'll get actual real TV coverage of it in the future I'll be more than happy to cheer Kuss on.

 

[tobydawq]

Simon Yates vs. Porte. Yates will take it.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think random sky rider could be a dark horse. And I guess the random will be de la Cruz. Good for at least a podium, and maybe even more.

All of the 'favourites' are so flaky right now. Something always happens to Porte, Yates can't maintain GC winning form for three weeks, Aru and Valverde haven't looked like serious GT riders for two years now, Quintana hasn't reached GT winning form for two years either, Nibali and Pinot returning from health issues, and Uran not good enough.

I think an outsider will take it. Probably de la Cruz, becase Sky.

Well since Valverde didn't exactly race a GT last year it's kind of hard for him to compete for a GT and this year at the Tour he specific said he was showing up in nothing better than race shape. The last GT he competed for GC in he finished on the podium.

Having said that, at this point I like Ion Izagirre to win the Vuelta. He's got what on paper looks like the strongest team around him.

Yeah, which was two and a half seasons ago. He's never going to be leader anyway as long as Quintana is on the start list and still in contention.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I can't see past Yates if he'll be able to replicate Giro shape, otherwise will be very difficult to see someone with a legit shot over the others, almost everyone has an asterisk next to fitness or willing to go for GC.
Lopez could be a good pick but he has showed that he prefers high mountains rather than Vuelta muritos and he's likely to bleed time here and there in case of hectic/tricky finales.
Anyway I won't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere and pull a Cobo.

Nope, we seem to be in for a Cobo/Horner Vuelta soon enough

How about Buchmann?!

Or Ion Izagirre as some have mentioned. Bennett maybe, he also seems like a nice fella. Or Sepp Kuss?

Kuss as Cobo and Tao Geoghegan Hart as Froome though Tao showed some quality this year.

 

[Kwibus]

Kuss was extremely well prepared at Utah. Jumbo coach Heijboer said that Kuss had a hard time adjusting to pretty much everything this year. He was send home after the Dauphine ,in which Kuss actually had a decent ride, so he could be home with his family to relax and then focus on Utah.

So this guy had a very big build up toward Utah, pretty sure not many riders at Utah had this

Its still hard to predict how he will do @ the Vuelta.


He also mentioned that Kruijswijk will ride for GC and that he was still feeling good and had good numbers during training. They just dont know wether he will fade or not as it simply cant be predicted.

 

[tobydawq]

I don't think de la Cruz will be anywhere near a podium. He wasn't particularly good in Burgos (not too bad either, mind) and even though he rides for Sky and many refuse to believe that Sky riders have the ability to disappoint slightly, I think he will do just that.

I just don't see him as a GT GC top 5 rider.

 

[rick james]

Nairo

 

[ppanther92]

I can't see past Yates if he'll be able to replicate Giro shape, otherwise will be very difficult to see someone with a legit shot over the others, almost everyone has an asterisk next to fitness or willing to go for GC.
Lopez could be a good pick but he has showed that he prefers high mountains rather than Vuelta muritos and he's likely to bleed time here and there in case of hectic/tricky finales.
Anyway I won't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere and pull a Cobo.

Nope, we seem to be in for a Cobo/Horner Vuelta soon enough

How about Buchmann?!

Or Ion Izagirre as some have mentioned. Bennett maybe, he also seems like a nice fella. Or Sepp Kuss?

Kuss as Cobo and Tao Geoghegan Hart as Froome though Tao showed some quality this year.

Don't be so mean to Tao. He has already more than double the CQ-points now at the age of 23 years than Froome had before his break through with 26 years.