Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

[movingtarget]

The winner probably comes from Yates, Quintana, Uran or Porte but I see some surprises for the top 10 and probably even the top five. Yates will have learned something from the Giro. Pinot and Zakarin should do okay as for Nibali, not sure how he will handle three weeks with his injury. He probably should be recuperating not riding but he needs the km's for the Worlds. Valverde of course will sense an opportunity, maybe one of his last in a grand tour. Could end up being a crazy race.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Nairio, S Yates, Ion...

 

[SafeBet]

Random Sky rider A vs random Sky ride B.
Gonna be epic.

 

[Tim Booth]

off to a good start

Unfortunately, some gastrointestinal issues will keep @richie_porte from the @lavuelta press conference and team presentation today but don't worry, he will be at the start line on Saturday.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

off to a good start

Unfortunately, some gastrointestinal issues will keep @richie_porte from the @lavuelta press conference and team presentation today but don't worry, he will be at the start line on Saturday.

So he’s got the $hits then

 

[Squire]

There are possible question marks about all the big contenders, so this Vuelta is a good chance for a slightly 'random' winner/podium finisher. Anybody from Formolo, Bennett, Zakarin, Izagirre, Mas, Kelderman, Carapaz, Mollema or Woods (in order of likelihood) could end up on the podium if they get lucky with their form.

It's promising to be an exciting race, so I'll be really disappointed if someone like Porte or Yates ends up dominating everyone.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Random Sky rider A vs random Sky ride B.
Gonna be epic.

Don't see that happening even though it is a strong C Team for Sky.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kelderman said he doesn't have pain anymore and he felt super in training rides. Ofc that says nothing about races and he knows that

 

[Andy262]

Would like to see LRP have a proper pitch at a GT so I'll be rooting for him.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Simon Yates, with relative ease.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The optimist in me says:
1. Quintana
2. Nibali
3. M.A. López
4. Aru
5. Pinot
6. S. Yates
7. Mollema
8. Kelderman
9. Zakarin
10. Kruijswijk

The pessimist in me says:
1. Porte
2. Uran
3. Henao
4. Kwiatkowski
5. A. Yates
6. S. Yates
7. Mollema
8. Kelderman
9. Zakarin
10. Kruijswijk

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

The optimist in me says:
1. Quintana
2. Nibali
3. M.A. López
4. Aru
5. Pinot
6. S. Yates
7. Mollema
8. Kelderman
9. Zakarin
10. Kruijswijk

The pessimist in me says:
1. Porte
2. Uran
3. Henao
4. Kwiatkowski
5. A. Yates
6. S. Yates
7. Mollema
8. Kelderman
9. Zakarin
10. Kruijswijk

If the best possible 6-10 and the worst possible 6-10 are identical, does that mean those positions are inevitable?

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

I think random sky rider could be a dark horse. And I guess the random will be de la Cruz. Good for at least a podium, and maybe even more.

All of the 'favourites' are so flaky right now. Something always happens to Porte, Yates can't maintain GC winning form for three weeks, Aru and Valverde haven't looked like serious GT riders for two years now, Quintana hasn't reached GT winning form for two years either, Nibali and Pinot returning from health issues, and Uran not good enough.

I think an outsider will take it. Probably de la Cruz, becase Sky.

I voted "random Sky." I could easily see de la Cruz, Kwiat or even Hart winning. Don't discount Hart -- he has the Sky "look" about him and clearly Brailsford sees something in him.

My heart, as always, is with Pinot but he should probably stick to stage hunting. I'm also pulling for Quintana. In theory, the Yateseses should be able to pull off a podium between them. MAL in theory should also be a podium contender but I have a hard time cheering on any Astana rider.

Tao's never ridden a GT before. When's the last time a GT debutant won GC? Not going to happen, but I do expect him to impress and be at the pointy end on a consistent basis.

Probably not but the first two GTs this year have proved to me that you can't rule out anything Sky-related...

 

[perico]

The surprising unmention of Enric Más in this thread...

 

[Robert5091]

Predictions -
1 Nibs - he has the voodoo
2 MAL
3 Carapaz

Half the peloton go home after 2nd rest day to train for the Worlds.

 

[Jspear]

Lopez. He did well in the Giro despite his crash.
2. Yates
3. Quintana

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

There’s quite a bizarre 10 riders who need to save their season at the Vuelta article on the front page. Bizarre because it includes the likes of Simon Yates, who has had his best ever season so far and has won three GT stages so far.

 

[markene2]

Simon Yates will win this bike race

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

There’s quite a bizarre 10 riders who need to save their season at the Vuelta article on the front page. Bizarre because it includes the likes of Simon Yates, who has had his best ever season so far and has won three GT stages so far.

Apparently his collapse in the Giro was enough to destroy his entire season.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

The optimist in me says:
1. Quintana
2. Nibali
3. M.A. López
4. Aru
5. Pinot
6. S. Yates
7. Mollema
8. Kelderman
9. Zakarin
10. Kruijswijk

The pessimist in me says:
1. Porte
2. Uran
3. Henao
4. Kwiatkowski
5. A. Yates
6. S. Yates
7. Mollema
8. Kelderman
9. Zakarin
10. Kruijswijk

You don't have Valverde in the top 10 on either list? You do realize he's only finished outside the top 10 in la Vuelta once in his career and that was 2016 when he raced all 3 GTs in one season.

 

[WKA311]

Not sure who wins, but Buchmann will get 7th.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

If the best possible 6-10 and the worst possible 6-10 are identical, does that mean those positions are inevitable?

It means I see them as eternal subtop riders. There aren't ten GC riders I dislike, so I had to use them as "filling". In an open Vuelta with not all the big names in top shape or focusing on the GC it's perfectly possible that one of them ends up competing for the podium.

You don't have Valverde in the top 10 on either list? You do realize he's only finished outside the top 10 in la Vuelta once in his career and that was 2016 when he raced all 3 GTs in one season.

I honestly overlooked him, wasn't trying to annoy you. I would add him to the top 5 of my optimistic list.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

If the best possible 6-10 and the worst possible 6-10 are identical, does that mean those positions are inevitable?

It means I see them as eternal subtop riders. There aren't ten GC riders I dislike, so I had to use them as "filling". In an open Vuelta with not all the big names in top shape or focusing on the GC it's perfectly possible that one of them ends up competing for the podium.

You don't have Valverde in the top 10 on either list? You do realize he's only finished outside the top 10 in la Vuelta once in his career and that was 2016 when he raced all 3 GTs in one season.

I honestly overlooked him, wasn't trying to annoy you. I would add him to the top 5 of my optimistic list.

Well I guess since he was injured last year, can be an invisible rider at times (he does like hiding in the peloton sometimes) and is 38, I guess overlooking him can happen.

 

[Carols]

Re:

The surprising unmention of Enric Más in this thread...

Injuries do that I certainly would like to see him do well!

 

[Jspear]

Quintana doesn't mind being considered the favorite....It's annoying that he would show confidence like this when Froome isn't around. He really could win I guess. He knows what it takes to win a gt....