Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[Devil's Elbow]

This is probably the most unpredictable GT I can remember, not just in terms of who's going to win but also in terms of what kind of racing we're going to get. My main worries are Roglic being the strongest in the race (although I don't expect him to be much better than in 2022) and Mas being the second-strongest, both of those have historically been clear net negatives in terms of action.

As for my vote - honestly, none of them feel like they should be winning to me and I think Ayuso threw away a golden opportunity by insisting on doing the Tour and burning a bunch of bridges in the process. Roglic is coming back from injury and probably won't be better than in 2022, Yates at 32 has never come within 9 minutes of winning a GT since Contador retired, Kuss was more or less a fluke, Almeida is a serial 3-5 guy, Mas and Landa are serial losers, Martinez has done one good GT in his life and the riders he beat were an ancient Thomas and Ben O'Connor, Rodriguez had a disappointing Tour and I don't even know that he was planning to start here, Carapaz hasn't done a GT GC in 2.5 years. Fully expect a big surprise to at least podium here - Del Toro, Lipowitz, Poole and Van Eetvelt come to mind.

For the win, though - Carapaz also hasn't had an uninterrupted run at GC in those 2.5 years, came into the Tour undercooked and looked really good in the final week. So in absence of a better option, he gets my vote.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think the gap Yates was beaten with by Pogi and Vingegaard is all that important. It could easily have been less or more, depending on how the two raced against each other. Yates still beat all the rest.

He was more than 8 minutes closer to yellow than Almeida was this year, but I also think that number is completely meaningless here.

 

[Cookster15]

I'll go out on a limb and pick Almeida. This is the race Ayuso could have won if he wasn't so delusional.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

If Landa can reach the same level as at the TDF he’s got a good chance.

Sssshhhhhhhhhh. This is our secret

 

[Squire]

Although he's not quite elite, I really wouldn't mind seeing Mas finally get a Vuelta win.

The dream is of course Landa winning it, but I don't think the universe works that way. Probably just not meant to be. Until last year he has never really made it work in the Vuelta, and he's never really done two good GTs in one season either.

Would also be happy with a Carapaz win, and a Del Toro, Lipowitz, Poole or Van Eetvelt in the fight would definitely be fun to follow. Gall reaching a mythical climbing level would also be fun.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

and he's never really done two good GTs in one season either.

Hello, I would like to tell you about a special couple of years in the sport recent history, 2017 and 2019

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Anyway, we need to talk about boras true leader, alexadre vlasov

 

[Squire]

Hello, I would like to tell you about a special couple of years in the sport recent history, 2017 and 2019

Okay, I'll somewhat give you 2019, but he was still beaten by Alaphilippe and Buchmann in the Tour.

He was strong in 2017 of course, but I can't count it as a good GT with that crash. There are too many what ifs with Landa that I can count one of the what ifs as something good.

 

[red_flanders]

I'll go out on a limb and pick Almeida. This is the race Ayuso could have won if he wasn't so delusional.

I feel like I'm not buying Ayuso as a GT winner just yet. Which is to say nothing of his potential, finishing 4th last year was a super strong result at his age. If we had Ayuso here 100%, would I really pick him to win? I think probably not. Yet. I'd pick him to podium, but wouldn't bet much on it. Could go either way.

Where someone like Roglič, I kinda think he's gonna podium if he shows up...and finishes. So much stronger mentally. I kinda think Ayuso might become Landa with TT powers. Which ain't bad at all...but...there seems to be something between the ears (so far) keeping him from consistency and breaking out as a top rider.

 

[Gigs_98]

Voted Enric Mas. Don't even really believe it myself but I do think his chances are a bit underrated. His Vuelta shape is usually better than his Tour shape and the opposition is kinda meh with lots of questionmarks. A guy who has been 2nd three times might have a chance to actually get his win in an edition like this. But then Vuelta winner Enric Mas does sound a bit wrong so Idk.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Voted Enric Mas. Don't even really believe it myself but I do think his chances are a bit underrated. His Vuelta shape is usually better than his Tour shape and the opposition is kinda meh with lots of questionmarks. A guy who has been 2nd three times might have a chance to actually get his win in an edition like this. But then Vuelta winner Enric Mas does sound a bit wrong so Idk.

Mas is IMO definitely the safest bet for a top-3, but to win a GT it takes some belief in yourself and the guy (races like he) has absolutely none.

 

[CyclistAbi]

You did?!

After careful consideration.

 

[topcat]

Landa by a landaslide

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

No Skjelmose, aka the young Vingegaard?

He was 10th (excluding Ayuso) in the Oddschecker list: if I had included him, there would have been no room to vote for "Other"

 

[perico]

Time for Enric’s Masterpiece in a showdown with Carapaz. The last week of the TDF saw them really hit their stride and then attacking each other up the final climb was one of the more entertaining stages.

 

[Peter von]

Skjelmose never won Tour of Denmark.

*** you’re right; my brain fart.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Anyway, we need to talk about boras true leader, alexadre vlasov

I mean, he is indeed more of a Vuelta gc rider, so you're not wrong...

 

[velaso montador]

Still feels like watching ligue 2 when Pogacar is not in the race but what can you do, I guess its nice to let the other fight for the scraps.

This Vuelta feels like everybody has a punchers chance.

 

[Red Rick]

Almeida's done the Vuelta the previous 2 years and been terrible both years. Not sure why this year should be different.

 

[perico]

Still feels like watching ligue 2 when Pogacar is not in the race but what can you do, I guess its nice to let the other fight for the scraps.

This Vuelta feels like everybody has a punchers chance.

That has always been how it has gone. Indurain rode the Vuelta 1 time after he won the TDF. Armstrong never rode it again after 1998.

Contador rode it only in years when he didn’t win the TDF. To his credit, Chris Froome is the only dominant TDF rider to have ridden the Vuelta on a semi regular basis during their reign. Credit also to Vingegaard for riding last year.

 

[Luthor]

Roglic is def not 100% and the route doesn't help. A. Yates is better than Almeida with few ITT kms.

 

[velaso montador]

That has always been how it has gone. Indurain rode the Vuelta 1 time after he won the TDF. Armstrong never rode it again after 1998.

Contador rode it only in years when he didn’t win the TDF. To his credit, Chris Froome is the only dominant TDF rider to have ridden the Vuelta on a semi regular basis during their reign. Credit also to Vingegaard for riding last year.

Yes I know the Vuelta is the consolation price usually but was talking more in general of every race not only the Vuelta. While all those are legends and great riders, combined their not Pogacar what weve seen now even hence why its lackluster somewhat to watch races when youve been used to watching him.

Its like going from prime Barcelona to watching United. It dosent hit the same after. That beeing said hope Roglic gets his consolation price and smile on the podium.

 

[Luthor]

The UAE duo how they will fare gonne be interesting to see, suspect both will be better than Kuss.

Almeida is gonna fall off eventually, the climbs don't suit him.

 

[Berniece]

With UAE top riders maybe fading out, and Roglic coming back from injury, this race is wide open.

 

[Andre]

Without Remco this race is for the lower riders and it will be boring without the Belgian (at lest much less exciting). I think Yates and Almeida will fight it out for the win, but I can't pick them cause I won't be cheering for anyone from UAE; that's how my twisted brain works. Forget about Roglic, Remco drained him into crashing at the Tour and his confidence will be down along with his preparation. I don't believe Kuss can keep up. Landa and Mas will show occasional signs of strength but not enough like always. So my pick is Carlos Rodriguez.