Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[Squire]

What count as inspiring GT victory?

A victory by someone who doesn't normally win for breakfast, second breakfast, lunch, dinner, supper and night snack.

And by someone I like. Not that I dislike Pog, really, I'm just kinda indifferent about him.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I voted for Roglic but maybe Almeida could od it

But I cant remember Almeida ever attacking off the front to any great degree ever . Is it possible , can he do that ?

 

[johnymax]

I voted for Roglic but maybe Almeida could od it

But I cant remember Almeida ever attacking off the front to any great degree ever . Is it possible , can he do that ?

Didn't he attack in last year's Giro when he and Thomas dropped Roglič? Or was it Thomas the one who attacked?

 

[Landeirovic]

Didn't he attack in last year's Giro when he and Thomas dropped Roglič? Or was it Thomas the one who attacked?

It was Almeida

 

[Tonton]

This Vuelta is coming too quickly after the Olympics, PFP and Remco. I could have used an extra week to build up for La Vuelta. The OP says it all, Roglic, then Mas, then an interesting bunch, and it's Almeida's podium spot to lose. Vai Antonio!

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah, the top favorites surely have a higher hit rate than a third. But usually there are tons of climbers who enter the Vuelta who end up nowhere after they were talked about as gc contenders. We simply forget they were even in the race in the first place. Who will remember Ben O'Connor was in this race a year from now? Yet if I had told you yesterday that he was gonna finish the Vuelta in the top 5 I don't think you would have deemed that impossible.

Lmao what a sh*t take

 

[Red Rick]

Lmao what a sh*t take

But.

It can't be

You weren't watching.

Judging by what happened, you haven't even checked the result yet.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Lmao what a sh*t take

Incredible stuff, nostradamus!

 

[Gigs_98]

But.

It can't be

You weren't watching.

Judging by what happened, you haven't even checked the result yet.

Tbf I was watching the last 10 km or so assuming that would be the only relevant part of the stage

 

[YavorD]

This Vuelta is coming too quickly after the Olympics, PFP and Remco. I could have used an extra week to build up for La Vuelta. The OP says it all, Roglic, then Mas, then an interesting bunch, and it's Almeida's podium spot to lose. Vai Antonio!

When I saw "Vai Antonio" for a second I thought you mean Nibali.

 

[Tonton]

When I saw "Vai Antonio" for a second I thought you mean Nibali.

You say that because I cheer for Thibaut Nys ...

 

[fenns]

O'Connor has changed the narrative. It looked like it was going to be how Roglic builds a lead over the field - which would been interesting enough but now it's even more intriguing.

 

[Pozzovivo]

My bet on O'connor to top 10 looks good...

 

[Sciatic]

O'Connor has changed the narrative. It looked like it was going to be how Roglic builds a lead over the field - which would been interesting enough but now it's even more intriguing.

Could be. Could also end up with teams that aren’t gutsy enough or strong enough to make much of a dent, and they’ll give up trying.

 

[Cookster15]

O'Conner not even considered for the poll LOL. This is going to be interesting. 4'45" is a lot. I think he would have to crack - certainly possible. But Roglic and co are not going to take that much time by shear superiority if O'Conner doesn't crack.

By comparison, non climber Thomas Voeckler was hard to dislodge from the yellow jersey at the 2011 Tour. But Voeckler's lead was only 2'26".

 

[Rackham]

I happen to think we're going to see O'Connor get repeatedly dropped here.

If Primož Roglič has his TdF legs, then just look at what's coming, i.e. from tomorrow all the way through to next weekend there's plenty of climbs with double digits where he can drop O'Connor & even take back the red jersey.

I mean just look at the last 3km's of stage 15:

IMO people are getting way too carried away with the O'Connor hype.

I still think it's Rog versus the tarmac & Almeida.

 

[Cookster15]

I happen to think we're going to see O'Connor get repeatedly dropped here.

If Primož Roglič has his TdF legs, then just look at what's coming, i.e. from tomorrow all the way through to next weekend there's plenty of climbs with double digits where he can drop O'Connor & even take back the red jersey.

I mean just look at the last 3km's of stage 15:

IMO people are getting way too carried away with the O'Connor hype.

I still think it's Rog versus the tarmac & Almeida.

Maybe. But unless O'Conner cracks he isn't going to lose 4 minutes on stages like this. very doubtful. He needs to crack else it ain't happening. Also remember when Roglic lost the 2019 Giro to Carapaz.

 

[Tim Cahill]

O'Connor will lose 20 or 30 seconds here and there on some of these climbs but it's not enough.

Roglic needs to go before the last climb on one of these stages, but Mas or LVE might be able to follow.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I happen to think we're going to see O'Connor get repeatedly dropped here.

If Primož Roglič has his TdF legs, then just look at what's coming, i.e. from tomorrow all the way through to next weekend there's plenty of climbs with double digits where he can drop O'Connor & even take back the red jersey.

I mean just look at the last 3km's of stage 15:

IMO people are getting way too carried away with the O'Connor hype.

I still think it's Rog versus the tarmac & Almeida.

There's only so much time that O'Connor can lose in 3 kilometres if he's still there at the start of them. Look at the time gaps when they did Zoncolan from the wrong side (that's almost an identical climb) in the 2021 Giro - the first 10 guys finished within a minute of each other. Assuming the same time difference per kilometre in the final TT, Roglic needs to make up 3:33 before then - not a crazy order, but with only six actual mountain stages plus tomorrow's HTF and maybe the odd bonus second on other stages to claw it back in, Roglic needs to be aiming for an average gain of ~35 seconds per mountain stage to reel in O'Connor. Can't see O'Connor losing much more than that in those final three kilometres of Cuitu Negru assuming he's still in the front group when they get there, and if he isn't, then the route is irrelevant to his chances anyway.

TL;DR - you are overrating Cuitu Negru by a lot.

 

[Red Rick]

The notion that it's either small gaps or fully cracking like an egg is so weird.

 

[Red Rick]

There's only so much time that O'Connor can lose in 3 kilometres if he's still there at the start of them. Look at the time gaps when they did Zoncolan from the wrong side (that's almost an identical climb) in the 2021 Giro - the first 10 guys finished within a minute of each other. Assuming the same time difference per kilometre in the final TT, Roglic needs to make up 3:33 before then - not a crazy order, but with only six actual mountain stages plus tomorrow's HTF and maybe the odd bonus second on other stages to claw it back in, Roglic needs to be aiming for an average gain of ~35 seconds per mountain stage to reel in O'Connor. Can't see O'Connor losing much more than that in those final three kilometres of Cuitu Negru assuming he's still in the front group when they get there, and if he isn't, then the route is irrelevant to his chances anyway.

TL;DR - you are overrating Cuitu Negru by a lot.

Conventionally, yes. But then by many of these normal assumptions we're talking about 2 climbers where the level difference is fairly marginal, and where riders would attack fairly late to minimize reverse implied odds.

Many climbs get these 20-30 second gaps among the top 2-3 or even top 5 but then lower down the top 10 gaps explode pretty hard.

O Connor had 2 days in the Giro where he wasn't in the top 10 of GC climbers, and where he dropped like 35 and 41s to Dani Martinez on very moderate climbs. He was also like 8th best on Grappa IIRC but it all came back together. And in the Giro, nobody gave a flying *** about O Connor dropping or not.

And that's to Dani Martinez. Now say what you want about Roglic, I still find it pretty fair to assume he's the 4th best climber in the world, judging by the trajectory of the TdF. If O Connor is basically at his Giro level, but a much stronger rider than Dani Martinez is gonna focus him down specifically, gaps can go up pretty quickly.

 

[AmRacer]

What about the last stage then? How much time can Roglic and Almeida gain on Ben?

 

[Red Rick]

What about the last stage then? How much time can Roglic and Almeida gain on Ben?

You can't know because you can't predict racing situation.

Picon Blanco itself is a pretty good climb to hit hard and attack from 5km or whatever to try and take a full minute.

 

[ppanther92]

One day has passed and already most of these takes were completely wrong. As an American I felt bad for putting Kuss this low but now it seems generous.

At least you didn’t put McNulty

 

[Red Rick]

Lmao the's apparently a climb with 2.5km at 14% - in what could be a sprint stage.