Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[Valv.Piti]

Don Enric? - Wouldn't that be lovely! While I completely see your point, Mas sometimes rides "aggressively" in the vuelta. Put Rogla and Remco under real pressure several times if or am I misremebering?

Problem for both Carpaaz and Mas is that they need to take the jersey late but still have a good gap coming into the last TT. If either of them are in red, RB-Bora, UAE, and Visma are gonna roll them pretty hard!

Of course, Don Enric. And yes, Im being slightly unfair to Mas - usually he simply just isn't good enough to do damage, but this race specifically (the Vuelta) have a lot going for it that really benefits Mas:

1. Its very hot and comparable to other leaders, thats a net gain for Enric
2. The best of the best usually arent here, and when they are, its not at 100% like in July
3. Some riders, like Mas, are actually best in their 2nd GT of the season
4. Mas is super lightweight and his trackrecord for these somewhat short, but very steep climbs in this race is very good. Certaintly better than 20 km at 7%.
5. Less stress, all about w/kg, and those w/kg efforts are usually in the ballpark of 10-30 minutes where he excels.

But then again, Im most likely just a romantic dreaming of him winning, but its certaintly doable this year, no doubt.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Very reasonable arguments @Valv.Piti! Logic supports the romance here. Also, people talk about the remco w/kg to pico jano but most fail to mention that Don Enric held that wheel and put 1.20(?) into Roglic and the rest. He can go very fast on his day! Lets hope it's up to Cuitu Negru this time.

And I've dreamt about a Pozzovivo GC win since Giro 2012, so I know the pain.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Looks very reasonable indeed! Only question is why do people think that Del Toro will do so well? He must be like 4th(?) in the team hierarchy and has not looked that good since Tirreno. I can't see him in the top 10. Also he's 20...

I agree it doesn’t make sense on paper for reasons you laid out, but he has looked like bottled lightning at times, and I am thinking it’s only a matter of time before he has some big performances.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I agree it doesn’t make sense on paper for reasons you laid out, but he has looked like bottled lightning at times, and I am thinking it’s only a matter of time before he has some big performances.

Haha "bottled lightning" never heard that expression before. Like it! Yes, he got that "shiny new toy" quality. Kinda weak TT on stage 1 though. I'm pretty sure he's gonna be riding in support of Yates and Almeida and not so much else.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Your home boy Don Enric is at it again @Valv.Piti! Nuclear in the vuelta rampas inhumanas. El jaguar got hard dropped and it makes me very sad. All the talk in the media and building up expectations for nothing. Wtf.

And are we all in line for another roglification? Let's hope not.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Of course, Enric is about to get his 2nd for the 4th time and get railed by the postman or the mailman or whatever the *** his fans call him

Nah, great stuff, Roglic will feel the heat on Hazallanes!

 

[Gigs_98]

I find it funny that Mas being good was the most predictable thing about this Vuelta yet some people were still surprised. Before the start Benji Naesen said something along the lines of "I think Enric Mas can top 7 this Vuelta" like it was some kind of hot take.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I find it funny that Mas being good was the most predictable thing about this Vuelta yet some people were still surprised. Before the start Benji Naesen said something along the lines of "I think Enric Mas can top 7 this Vuelta" like it was some kind of hot take.

Benji Naesen is also a complete buffoon. Its a shame since I think Patrick Broe is just about the best cycling influencer in the world. I consume a lot of his stuff and its usually right on the money IMO, but Benji is just bringing the analysis and insights way down usually. He doesn't bring anything to the table other than him being Belgian and therefore being able to report stuff about Belgian riders that others probably wouldnt.

 

[Netserk]

Of course, Enric is about to get his 2nd for the 4th time and get railed by the postman or the mailman or whatever the *** his fans call him

Meditate on it. May you become enlightened.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Almost a third of the forum, including me, voted for someone who missed the top-10 today. Oops.

I find it funny that Mas being good was the most predictable thing about this Vuelta yet some people were still surprised. Before the start Benji Naesen said something along the lines of "I think Enric Mas can top 7 this Vuelta" like it was some kind of hot take.

I mean, it’s pretty obvious that Naesen knows less ball than the majority of posters on here. And it’s not like this place doesn’t have its share of, shall we say, less knowledgeable users.

 

[Red Rick]

Benji Naesen is also a complete buffoon. Its a shame since I think Patrick Broe is just about the best cycling influencer in the world. I consume a lot of his stuff and its usually right on the money IMO, but Benji is just bringing the analysis and insights way down usually. He doesn't bring anything to the table other than him being Belgian and therefore being able to report stuff about Belgian riders that others probably wouldnt.

He brings the skill of being on twitter and abusing the algorithm 24/7.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Meditate on it. May you become enlightened.

"Arh, but my back hurts"
"Arh, my team just decided to randomnly put on a chase"
"Arh, lets see, Im still not feeling great in my back, but Im here"

 

[Pozzovivo]

Benji Naesen is also a complete buffoon. Its a shame since I think Patrick Broe is just about the best cycling influencer in the world. I consume a lot of his stuff and its usually right on the money IMO, but Benji is just bringing the analysis and insights way down usually. He doesn't bring anything to the table other than him being Belgian and therefore being able to report stuff about Belgian riders that others probably wouldnt.

Completely agree!!!!

 

[Sciatic]

He brings the skill of being on twitter and abusing the algorithm 24/7.

Some Companies pay people to do that

 

[Pozzovivo]

Some Companies pay people to do that

PB is clever.

 

[Berniece]

Great start for Landa, still on track to win the Vuelta

 

[Squire]

I find it funny that Mas being good was the most predictable thing about this Vuelta yet some people were still surprised. Before the start Benji Naesen said something along the lines of "I think Enric Mas can top 7 this Vuelta" like it was some kind of hot take.

Yeah, it was the only predictable thing, really. That, and Kuss not being anywhere near repeating 2023.

Still feeling okay about my Mas vote. We need at least one inspiring GT victory story this year.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Good list. Super tough call! I don't feel overly confident, but I'll go:

1. Roglic
2. Yates
3. Carapaz
4. Almeida
5. Kuss
6. Landa
7. CRod
8. Mas
9. Martinez
10. Del Toro

One day has passed and already most of these takes were completely wrong. As an American I felt bad for putting Kuss this low but now it seems generous.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Yeah, it was the only predictable thing, really. That, and Kuss not being anywhere near repeating 2023.

Still feeling okay about my Mas vote. We need at least one inspiring GT victory story this year.

What count as inspiring GT victory?

 

[Gigs_98]

Almost a third of the forum, including me, voted for someone who missed the top-10 today. Oops.

That's just how it always goes at the Vuelta. Before the race everyone is at awe about all the big names on the startlist but once the first mountain stage takes place it turns out 2/3 of those big names are actually in sh*t shape and among the other third are Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas. It's been like this since about 2018.

 

[Sciatic]

That's just how it always goes at the Vuelta. Before the race everyone is at awe about all the big names on the startlist but once the first mountain stage takes place it turns out 2/3 of those big names are actually in sh*t shape and among the other third are Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas. It's been like this since about 2018.

That’s a bit overblown isn’t it? Being 1:15 (Kuss) behind after stage 4 with many mtn stages left is hardly out of contention, which means 6 of the 8 most talked about favorites are still right there. Only Yates and Carapaz gave indication of being in sh&t shape, and with them we don’t know if it was just a jour sans in the heat.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Cant wait for mythical 3rd week Mas

 

[Gigs_98]

That’s a bit overblown isn’t it? Being 1:15 (Kuss) behind after stage 4 with many mtn stages left is hardly out of contention, which means 6 of the 8 most talked about favorites are still right there. Only Yates and Carapaz gave indication of being in sh&t shape, and with them we don’t know if it was just a jour sans in the heat.

Yeah, the top favorites surely have a higher hit rate than a third. But usually there are tons of climbers who enter the Vuelta who end up nowhere after they were talked about as gc contenders. We simply forget they were even in the race in the first place. Who will remember Ben O'Connor was in this race a year from now? Yet if I had told you yesterday that he was gonna finish the Vuelta in the top 5 I don't think you would have deemed that impossible.

 

[perico]

I find it funny that Mas being good was the most predictable thing about this Vuelta yet some people were still surprised. Before the start Benji Naesen said something along the lines of "I think Enric Mas can top 7 this Vuelta" like it was some kind of hot take.

Benji Naesen is a moron.

 

[Red Rick]

Its already down to Roglic and Almeida for me, with Roglic being the clear favorite. Today was pretty ominous in that regard, considering Roglic means to peak later in the race

Mas tends to look good but then it turns out his attacks font have sting or he blows himself up