Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[KZD]

One of the most open Grand Tours of the last few years that also a very hard route overall.

Still, if he recovered well enough from his Tour crash, Roglič has to be the favourite. Bora brings a very good squad to support him with Vlasov and Martinez also possible GC cards and the route itself also suits Roglič because at least on paper he can win like half of the stages and while that won't happen he should still pick more bonus seconds than any other rider.

UAE should be the main challengers. They have won both the Giro and the Tour with Pogačar and they bring a stacked squad but I do fear that they have a lack of riders willing to play the domestique role which in the end might cost them dearly. Still, I would be shocked if they don't finish with any rider on the podium, likely Yates or Almeida, who will be extra motivated because the Vuelta starts in Portugal but it wouldn't shock me to see Del Toro there either.

Last year's winner Kuss will have a hard time defending his title but he is now chanceless as he was still the third best climber in the race last year and I think the route should suit him with many steep climbs aling the way. Uijtdebroeks is also another strong card for Visma to play with Van Aert has everything to win at least one stage in his debut.

Spanish speaking riders like Landa, Mas, Rodriguez or Carapaz shouldn't be underestimated either as any of them are outside picks for win. Trek also brings a strong squad with Ciccone, Hart and Skjelmose the latter of which has been preparing this race for months. Finally, also curious to see Tarling GT debut.

 

[Invicituz]

With the three amigos, Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel, not participating, it's a wide-open race. This is my top ten prediction:

1) Primož Roglič
2) Richard Carapaz
3) Enric Mas
4) Carlos Rodríguez
5) Mikel Landa
6) João Almeida
7) Sepp Kuss
8) Daniel Martínez
9) Adam Yates
10) Cian Uijtdebroeks

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Of the seven voting 'Other', I believe only @Tricycle Rider has said who he is picking to finish in red: Nairo Quintana.

So come on @TheRossSeaParty @GenericBoonenFan @Mayomaniac @Anderis @Remy55 and @Links2003 : are you actually tipping Nicolas Vinokourov for the win, or who?

 

[Anderis]

So come on @TheRossSeaParty @GenericBoonenFan @Mayomaniac @Anderis @Remy55 and @Links2003 : are you actually tipping Nicolas Vinokourov for the win, or who?

Yes.

 

[proffate]

So many excuses from Yatesy:

• we didn't do a training camp
• training power is not the same as racing power
• not enough time since TDF
• other guys trained for this race
• don't live at high enough altitude
• it was too warm the last couple weeks

I think he's ready to dominate.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Of the seven voting 'Other', I believe only @Tricycle Rider has said who he is picking to finish in red: Nairo Quintana.

So come on @TheRossSeaParty @GenericBoonenFan @Mayomaniac @Anderis @Remy55 and @Links2003 : are you actually tipping Nicolas Vinokourov for the win, or who?

Look I know Nairoman doesn't stand a chance in hell, but what chance does Rogla stand if he can't even stay upright on the bike?

I'd love to vote for Rogla otherwise...

 

[Samu Cuenca]

When I voted in the Tour poll, my pick crashed out, so I only dared to vote for Vino this time around.

 

[YavorD]

When I voted in the Tour poll, my pick crashed out, so I only dared to vote for Vino this time around.

So you hope that poor Nico crashes out?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

So you hope that poor Nico crashes out?

He's the rider, I'd like to see crash out the most.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Of the seven voting 'Other', I believe only @Tricycle Rider has said who he is picking to finish in red: Nairo Quintana.

So come on @TheRossSeaParty @GenericBoonenFan @Mayomaniac @Anderis @Remy55 and @Links2003 : are you actually tipping Nicolas Vinokourov for the win, or who?

You give me a Vino option, I use it.

 

[mrgmyers]

Does anyone know where I can find .gpx files for the stages of the 2024 vuelta please I have looked on Strava without much success thanks in advance? Update I have now found them on cyclingstage.com

 

[mrgmyers]

Don't know, what are your thoughts?

Just commenting on this race, it seems there's no obviously dominant rider given Roglič's difficulties, and a lot of very good riders potentially with ambition.

I was looking at Roglic for my fantasy team but he just falls off such a lot I could not bring myself.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Of the seven voting 'Other', I believe only @Tricycle Rider has said who he is picking to finish in red: Nairo Quintana.

So come on @TheRossSeaParty @GenericBoonenFan @Mayomaniac @Anderis @Remy55 and @Links2003 : are you actually tipping Nicolas Vinokourov for the win, or who?

Yes

 

[houtdffan]

asterisk on the winner

no 3 aliens = not the best riders present

 

[triley36]

Voted Roglic. Hoping for Daniel Martinez or Carapaz. In any case, the Vuelta is usually fun because it is far more open than the other GTs. Usually no teams to dominate the race and it seems that later in the season form can come and go more quickly and unexpectedly than in the Giro or Tour.

 

[perico]

I have to vote for Enric out of loyalty, but the head is definitely leaning towards Carapaz this morning.

 

[Unchained]

Not many people voting for Kuss.

Isaac Del Toro...probably the favorite ahead of Kuss!!

 

[Pozzovivo]

It looks like he relinquished no. 21 to Arensman, I'm not sure if the team leadership goes with it. He said though that he has trained and gradually recovered his form after the illness.

C-Rod is just better than Arensman I believe. Does it really matter if TA is plan A and C-Rod plan B? I doubt that any of them can challenge for the W this vuelta. Podium would be an upset imo.

 

[RJH]

Nairoman for the win!

(I'm too scared to vote for Rogla, he crashes. At this point I'm just kind of hoping he'll make it to the end of the Vuelta without any devastating crashes, fingers crossed.)

The thing is, if Primoz has pain and/or is careful with his back, he could crash again on nervous Spanish roads. I hope he stays on his bike; if not I hope a crash won’t worsen his back.

But on paper Vuelta suits him perfectly. It is his race, more than Giro and Tour.

It‘s Gesink‘s last race, he did a GT every year since 2008. Won stage race Circuito Montanes aged 20. Lives in Spain/Andorra. Surprisingly never won the Vuelta. Was crash prone also, like Kelderman.

I hope Gesink thinks better of it and prolongs his career until at least 2030. I mean, why not?

I miss the days of Sevilla and Mancebo at the Vuelta. Task for Caja or Kern to sign them, and let them race the Vuelta. WT should not be restricted to 20 to 35 year olds.

 

[Pozzovivo]

El jaguar de tulcan got this in the bag already! He will hunt this victory down my friends.

Arguments:
1. He came out of the Tour in great shape!
2. He did the best TT he's done since the move to EF on stage 1.
3. The parcour offers plenty of opportunities to take time. Carapaz is very persistent and tenacious.
4. The race will be uncontrolled with Bora, Jumbo and UAE messing about with multiple leaders. And if there is one guy who can read a race and pick the good move it's Carapaz.
5. And obviously, we have no Pog, Vinge or Remco to kill el jaguar.

Vamos!

 

[Valv.Piti]

El jaguar de tulcan got this in the bag already! He will hunt this victory down my friends.

Arguments:
1. He came out of the Tour in great shape!
2. He did the best TT he's doen since the move to EF on stage 1.
3. The parcour offers plenty of opportunities to take time. Carapaz is very persistent and tenacious.
4. The race will be uncontrolled with Bora, Jumbo and UAE messing about with multiple leaders. And if there is one guy who can read a race and pick the good move it's Carapaz.
5. And obviously, we have no Pog, Vinge or Remco to kill el jaguar.

Vamos!

Very solid arguments, and those are the exact same arguments I use for Enrico Massi. Apart from point number 4, my guy is generally not very good at reading a race and often races too passively and what not, but hey, let me dream.

 

[Unchained]

15 years ago? Mate, I have some bad news for you...

I think that Wurst made more money and pedaling progress being a overly handsome cycling model than anything he ever did as a racer..
CN wasn't one I don't think but he was used on multiple other sites and magazines to be photographed riding featured bikes, cycling vacation spots and clothing, eyewear.. He is probably picking up some silver foxes in a retirement home riding his scooter!!

 

[Pozzovivo]

Very solid arguments, and those are the exact same arguments I use for Enrico Massi. Apart from point number 4, my guy is generally not very good at reading a race and often races too passively and what not, but hey, let me dream.

Don Enric? - Wouldn't that be lovely! While I completely see your point, Mas sometimes rides "aggressively" in the vuelta. Put Rogla and Remco under real pressure several times if or am I misremebering?

Problem for both Carpaaz and Mas is that they need to take the jersey late but still have a good gap coming into the last TT. If either of them are in red, RB-Bora, UAE, and Visma are gonna roll them pretty hard!

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

With the three amigos, Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel, not participating, it's a wide-open race. This is my top ten prediction:

1) Primož Roglič
2) Richard Carapaz
3) Enric Mas
4) Carlos Rodríguez
5) Mikel Landa
6) João Almeida
7) Sepp Kuss
8) Daniel Martínez
9) Adam Yates
10) Cian Uijtdebroeks

Good list. Super tough call! I don't feel overly confident, but I'll go:

1. Roglic
2. Yates
3. Carapaz
4. Almeida
5. Kuss
6. Landa
7. CRod
8. Mas
9. Martinez
10. Del Toro

 

[Pozzovivo]

Good list. Super tough call! I don't feel overly confident, but I'll go:

1. Roglic
2. Yates
3. Carapaz
4. Almeida
5. Kuss
6. Landa
7. CRod
8. Mas
9. Martinez
10. Del Toro

Looks very reasonable indeed! Only question is why do people think that Del Toro will do so well? He must be like 4th(?) in the team hierarchy and has not looked that good since Tirreno. I can't see him in the top 10. Also he's 20...