Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[The Hitch]

After looking at the results of races that took place while i was away, I conclude that Daniel Browne is an outside contender, especially if everyone is watching his leader.

 

[movingtarget]

I don't think Anton will make enough time on the climbs to cancel out the lost time in the time trials. Same with Rodriguez. EE never do very well in TT's either. Looking at the teams it's hard to see a dominant team. I think it will be open but I think Menchov, Scarponi and Nibali may fight it out. I would like to see VDB and Wiggins do something as well. The fact that they both crashed out early in the TDF might help them even though they have obviously lost training miles but considering they would almost have been at peak fitness entering the TDF, they should be okay as long as they have recovered well from their injuries. Probably more of a question mark around VDB's recovery.

 

[PedalCastro]

No love for TGBM!?

He has to give the others a chance at some stage.. He might just be happy with 2 jerseys and leave them fight it out for the overall

 

[jsem94]

Purito is probably taking points jersey as well as combination

 

[SHAD0W93]

Klodi says his back is not 100% (maybe he's trying to deflect pressure, but there is probably some truth in what he says). Menchov is a bit of a dark horse. I'm only surprised by your prediction for Roche, above VdB and Scarponi Now that I would like to see.

Hm hopefully his back is 100% since I only said that because of the TTT and the time trial. Menchov I think can do it espicially with Sastre helping him. Roche well that is more of a hope than what might happen.

 

[SHAD0W93]

No way Kolden is going to podium. It's also very unlikely that Menchov will win, but can't write him off.

I think he can if he is 100% from the TTT and ITT. Than for Menchov as long as he doesn't crash should do fine.

 

[Carols]

Well I voted for Menchov, ITT favors him. However last year I cashed on Nibali and I couldn't possibly be right 2 years in a row, LOL!

 

[PedalCastro]

I think he can if he is 100% from the TTT and ITT. Than for Menchov as long as he doesn't crash should do fine.

He has said he isnt 100% yet though. I think Jani will be team leader at the Vuelta and he will get a top 10.. Maybe..

 

[SHAD0W93]

He has said he isnt 100% yet though. I think Jani will be team leader at the Vuelta and he will get a top 10.. Maybe..

Yeah he did say that but either he is tellnig the truth or faking so people won't think of him as a threat.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

I haven't read the whole thread, but Menchov appears overrated by pollsters. He has a history to always factor, but that factor is aging; he is less and less impactful each time he rides. Maybe he "wanted" this past Giro less than this Vuelta, but there are too many guys who beat him who he is facing again.

I don't know, I was just really let down by his performance (Sastre similarly, which should be a cog in the menchov machine)

 

[Fetisoff]

I haven't read the whole thread, but Menchov appears overrated by pollsters. He has a history to always factor, but that factor is aging; he is less and less impactful each time he rides. Maybe he "wanted" this past Giro less than this Vuelta, but there are too many guys who beat him who he is facing again.

Somehow he always does well in at least one GT a year.
Although, there might not be enough TT km for him in the Vuelta (his TTT will be weak), however I'm certain on a good day he can still climb with Nibali

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Maybe, but at least you agree that it will be one the best ITT riders of the group.

PS: I still don't understand why Anton got so many votes based on just last year's Vuelta. It doesn't make sense.

Votes for Antón are not based on just last year's Vuelta.

- Igor Antón was by far and away the climber of last year's Vuelta for two weeks. Short and steep or long and gradual, it didn't matter, he won 2 stages on polar opposite climbing finishes.
- Igor Antón won on Monte Zoncolán earlier this year. Maybe the toughest climb currently in use in the sport - but its nearest competitor is on the Vuelta route approaching now. He put time into Nibali, Rodríguez and Menchov, all of whom are considered major threats to him in this Vuelta.
- Igor Antón is one of precious few people to have dropped Alberto Contador; on the Alto del Morredero in the Vuelta a Castilla y León 2010, he left Alberto stranded. Not outsprinted in the last couple of hundred metres like Morzine. Dropped during a climb.
- In the 2008 Vuelta a España, Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde traded attacks on the way to Pla de Beret. Igor Antón was the only rider who could follow these attacks. Ultimately, they didn't gain much; Pla de Beret isn't the most taxing climb. But, the fact still remains that Igor Antón was the only one who could follow, and this in a race that included Mosquera, Sastre, Leipheimer and Rodríguez. He was lying 6th overall, with one of those riders ahead of him being Egoi Martínez, who had been allowed the maillot oro in a breakaway, before he crashed out of the race on the descent of the Alto del Cordal.
- He won the queen stage of the 2010 Tour de Romandie, after Valverde's demotion. This included a few tough climbs, especially the final climb of Ovronnaz. Riders he beat that day include Menchov and Brajkovic.

There is plenty of evidence to say that Igor Antón is an élite climber and that he has a very good chance of winning this Vuelta, without needing to actually even talk about last year's race. I haven't even mentioned his week 3 mountaintop stage win from 2006 or his top ten finish in 2007, both of which came as a support rider!

 

[VeloCity]

I think Wiggins has a realistic shot and he's got to be motivated - he needs a good GT result. But I think Scarponi or Anton will come out on top.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Votes for Antón are not based on just last year's Vuelta.

- Igor Antón was by far and away the climber of last year's Vuelta for two weeks. Short and steep or long and gradual, it didn't matter, he won 2 stages on polar opposite climbing finishes.
- Igor Antón won on Monte Zoncolán earlier this year. Maybe the toughest climb currently in use in the sport - but its nearest competitor is on the Vuelta route approaching now. He put time into Nibali, Rodríguez and Menchov, all of whom are considered major threats to him in this Vuelta.
- Igor Antón is one of precious few people to have dropped Alberto Contador; on the Alto del Morredero in the Vuelta a Castilla y León 2010, he left Alberto stranded. Not outsprinted in the last couple of hundred metres like Morzine. Dropped during a climb.
- In the 2008 Vuelta a España, Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde traded attacks on the way to Pla de Beret. Igor Antón was the only rider who could follow these attacks. Ultimately, they didn't gain much; Pla de Beret isn't the most taxing climb. But, the fact still remains that Igor Antón was the only one who could follow, and this in a race that included Mosquera, Sastre, Leipheimer and Rodríguez. He was lying 6th overall, with one of those riders ahead of him being Egoi Martínez, who had been allowed the maillot oro in a breakaway, before he crashed out of the race on the descent of the Alto del Cordal.
- He won the queen stage of the 2010 Tour de Romandie, after Valverde's demotion. This included a few tough climbs, especially the final climb of Ovronnaz. Riders he beat that day include Menchov and Brajkovic.

There is plenty of evidence to say that Igor Antón is an élite climber and that he has a very good chance of winning this Vuelta, without needing to actually even talk about last year's race. I haven't even mentioned his week 3 mountaintop stage win from 2006 or his top ten finish in 2007, both of which came as a support rider!

and yet he's never put it together in a 3 week tour yet.

 

[The Hitch]

- He won the queen stage of the 2010 Tour de Romandie, after Valverde's demotion. This included a few tough climbs, especially the final climb of Ovronnaz. Riders he beat that day include Menchov and Brajkovic.

Umm Spillack.

And Dennis and Simon were content with the podiums that stage had got them. Valverde was about to get the win. Anton was the only person in that group who had nothing so he went for the sprint.

Menchov and Spillack knew they werent going to beat Piti in the sprint anyway and Anton got the second place and hence the eventual stage victory, by being the only person to try.

I certainatly dont see him getting time bonuses from a sprint in this race.

I dont know why you include that Romandie stage. It wasnt that impressive. To start with his attack didnt last, and he got caught by the guys behind. Then Spillack is hardly a major gt contender. the stage ended on a flat and had Valverde not been there we dont know if he would have even got 2nd.

His performance on Muur 2 weeks earlier where he paced and matched Contador 60% up the climb was more impressive.

The Romandie stage tells us nothing the 2 Vuelta stages last year did not. In fact it makes him look weaker.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

There is plenty of evidence to say that Igor Antón is an élite climber and that he has a very good chance of winning this Vuelta, without needing to actually even talk about last year's race.

There's no argument on the elite climber point. I'd go so far as to say that there's plenty of evidence to say that measuring best day against best day, he's the best climber in the field. But that's the key factor in winning a super hard mountain stage, not the only factor in winning a Grand Tour.

The fact is that at the Giro he was great one day, abysmal the next. And, bar Rodriguez and perhaps Dan Martin, every other potential top 10 guy time trials better than he does. He has to put significant time into the likes of Nibali and Menchov on the climbs, which is, if they are on form, a tough thing to do.

Anton is one of the guys who can win the Vuelta, but I think sentiment is making him the outright favourite here.

 

[cineteq]

There is plenty of evidence to say that Igor Antón is an élite climber and that he has a very good chance of winning this Vuelta, without needing to actually even talk about last year's race. I haven't even mentioned his week 3 mountaintop stage win from 2006 or his top ten finish in 2007, both of which came as a support rider!

Nobody doubts what he's capable of doing on steep MTFs, however it will be hard for him and his team to overcome the time lost in 2 TTs. In a way, I hope I'm wrong so I'll see a more competitive Vuelta.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

and yet he's never put it together in a 3 week tour yet.

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=6330

 

[SHAD0W93]

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=6330

In which he got 8th 8' behind Menchov.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In which he got 8th 8' behind Menchov.

Notice that he's 24 and his team leader is on the podium there. He put it together over 3 weeks, and he wasn't riding for himself.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=6330

8th in a GC!!!!!!

I'm sorry, but you're trying to convince people he's the favourite, so you link me to a race he came 8th in. That's beneath you.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

8th in a GC!!!!!!

I'm sorry, but you're trying to convince people he's the favourite, so you link me to a race he came 8th in. That's beneath you.

No, I'm not trying to convince people he's the favourite. I think Nibali is.

However, there was a post that seemed baffled that anybody could be considering him the favourite, and that anybody who was was basing it solely on last year's Vuelta. I was saying that there's plenty beyond that Vuelta to make a case for Antón, because I feel it's denigrating a lot of his achievements to argue that the 2010 Vuelta is all he's done that merits his being discussed among the favourites. Then the argument was that he's never done it over 3 weeks, after fading away in the Giro and crashing out of the Vuelta last year, so I posted the 2007 result to show that he has shown the recovery to do it over 3 weeks.

Your mileage may vary regarding him being called the absolute favourite.

It's possible to argue both for and against points that you don't necessarily believe in, but feel that certain key points and mitigating factors are being overlooked, prejudicing conclusions. Do I think Antón is the favourite to win the Vuelta? Probably not. But do I feel that some of the arguments being presented as justifications for that have some notable weaknesses that need to be pointed out? Yes.

 

[Arnout]

In the Giro, Anton came to win a stage. After he won that stage, he didn't have the mental power anymore to suffer for a GC. He felt empty and was also a bit ill in the last week.

 

[Tank Engine]

Hm hopefully his back is 100% since I only said that because of the TTT and the time trial. Menchov I think can do it espicially with Sastre helping him. Roche well that is more of a hope than what might happen.

Ah, I see. I also hope to see Roche (and Danny Boy) do something (either top 10 or stage win)

 

[Winterfold]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

hoping this will be this year's second time