Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Lexman]

OK.

..., Gadret is a better climber than Voeckler, and wasn't given a headstart.

Everyone, even Voeckler himself, forgets that he has gotten a 3 minute or so bonus from the peloton.

Otherwise he wouldn't have finished top 5 certainly, maybe not even top 10...

 

[Lexman]

Top 3 :

Igor Anton
Vincenzo Nibali
Jurgen Van Den Broeck

 

[Havetts]

I'd love to see Sastre do something magical and I think hes extremely motivated to make something out of this GT, if there is to be a "dark horse" its going to be Sastre since no one counts on that anymore.

 

[PedalCastro]

If JVdB has recovered well enough I think he'll podium, if not he'll be invisible. Very close at the top, has the makings of a great Vuelta! Roche and Martin to top 15 Nibali to successfully defend his title

 

[Arnout]

Anton's had a 6th place in the Castilla Leon ITT this year against some decent competition. last year he had a 3rd place in castilla leon tt. The tt's he has done well in are generally on undulating courses. The long flat course in Salamanca may sort him out a bit.

Think he will lose 1.5 to 2 minutes on Menchov, providing both are in good form.

So that will be roughly 1 minute to Nibali.

He has been in wind tunnels in San Diego and more recently in the Basque country numerous times but barely rides time trials for a win as he usually crashes out at some point. His best GT result is still an 8th place, helping Samu to the Vuelta podium in 2007 (?).

Time to change that in the coming month.

 

[LabMonkey]

There has been quite a bit of talk on the Vuelta posts about 'aggressive' and 'defensive' riders... since this tour has time bonuses on the line... who will be going for those extra seconds?

YES - JRod, Scarponi

No - Menchov

What about all the others?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

menchov has gone for bonus seconds in past GTs, and been pretty effictive. Why he wouldn't (if the form is there) is beyond me.

 

[the asian]

I voted for Anton. He should win this unless he displays Euskatels' famous bike handling skills like last year.

 

[El Pistolero]

People who I want to win: Igor Anton, Scarponi, Van den Broeck, Joaquim Rodriguez and Sastre.

People who I don't want to win: Klöden, Wiggins, Nibali.

Most likely winner: Igor Anton if he doesn't crash out. Otherwise Scarponi.
Winner of the points jersey: Greg van Avermaet.
Winner of the mountain jersey: David Moncoutié.

 

[python]

i voted for scarponi though purito was my first choice for a while..

as for the russian, imo he wont win, may not even podium - something about his riding this year is unconvincing... in the context, it's hard not to recall jv's prediction early this year that menchov wont shine. personally, i noticed the more assertive menchov gets about his own chances, the less successful he becomes. this is in stark contrast with his generally modest and cautions comments.

nibali may surprise of course.

 

[Midnightfright]

i voted for scarponi though purito was my first choice for a while..

as for the russian, imo he wont win, may not even podium - something about his riding this year is unconvincing... in the context, it's hard not to recall jv's prediction early this year that menchov wont shine. personally, i noticed the more assertive menchov gets about his own chances, the less successful he becomes. this is in stark contrast with his generally modest and cautions comments.

nibali may surprise of course.

Dennis could go 1 of two ways he's the only person I see getting in the way of a nibbles, Anton, Scarponi podium. The bonus seconds will help JRod but of the other teams are clever they will allow breaks to go on the punchier finishes. Frankly I would be very surprised if he podiumed especially as he always has 1 bad day.

 

[Kvinto]

it's obvious: Anton or Scarponi (voted for Michele).
if it's neither Igor nor Michele then:
1. it was the great injustice;
2. the winner should be referred to The Clinic;
3. the Vuelta wasn't worth of watching it.
* if J.Rodriguez or Sastre will win, the item #3 should be excluded
** if VanDenBroeck will win, the item #3 should be excluded and the item #2 should start with "maybe";
*** if (God forbid) Anton will get injured again and Nieve will win, the items #2 and #3 should be excluded.

 

[Contre la montre]

I voted for Menchov. I expect him to have decent form. Also I'm not expecting too much from the people who have finished or crashed out of the tour. I'm not, however, rooting for Menchov. I wouldn't mind Rodriguez winning or a big surprise like Fuglsang who I feel had a very lacklustre tour.

BTW: does Caja have anything up its sleeve?

And slightly off topic... what happened to all of the other small Spanish oufits?

 

[Jan the Man]

I think it will be Niabli.

If not Nibali then I have a sneaky suspicion Menchov might surprise and show form he has not had this year.

 

[Fetisoff]

BTW: does Caja have anything up its sleeve?

Yeah, a non-invitation from the organizers

 

[MartinGT]

Nibali
Anton
Rodriguez
Menchov
Scarponi

 

[Cobblestoned]

Think Menchov will do it.
He'll be there and has a very strong team with him.
If he is really in good shape, he is better than any other of the GC starters.

Nibali will be his hardest rival for victory, followed by all the other favorites like Anton, Scarponi and JR.

I think the Shack will ride for Brajkovic, since Klöden still has some back-problems. We'll see.
No doubt RS brings a very strong team too. On paper strongest team, together with Geox (at least when it's about the mountains).

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah, a non-invitation from the organizers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DYje57V_BY&feature=related

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Interesting interview with Dan Martin:

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/9...ral-classification-targets-are-realistic.aspx

*The Vuelta is a kind of test for him, to see if his body has developed enough to be able to handle three week races. Wants to try to ride consistently.

*Doesn't care which of his team mates are or are not selected (except that he's looking forward to working with his room mate Le Mevel).

*Not putting big pressure on himself to get dramatic results, just hoping for a top 10.

*Enjoyed the Tour of Poland. Sagan rode well and deserved the win.

 

[hfer07]

podium regardless winner, 2nd & 3rd spots:

Nibali
Anton
Scarponi


Menchov may surprise, but i think he will lose chunks of time in the Angliru

 

[Tank Engine]

My head says Nibali, my heart says Anton (or Danny Boy, but that's too silly according to my head). Voted Nibali.

 

[The Hitch]

Will there be any descent finishes for Nibali? Because I cant see him beating Anton and Scarponi in the mountains. Might do it on tt but then theres Menchov so a downhill for him to own would do him a world of good.

I dont think i saw any though.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

There is no way on earth that Andalucía-Caja Granada are in any way shape or form superior than Caja Rural - except that there are stages of the Vuelta in Andalucía, and not in Navarra (plus there's already a Navarrese team in the race - Movistar). That invite is just a huge disappointment. Javier Moreno, José Herrada and Oleg Chuzhda would provide more to the race than anybody Andalucía can send.

 

[gilbertador]

have bet on dan martin, £10 @ odds of 150 for return of £1500 = new carbon bike
Seriously good odds on him, dont rate Anton, what has he ever done in the third week of a gt, he was beating Nibali in the Giro this year or was close and had a shocker, hes inconsistent

Scarponi for me

 

[Libertine Seguros]

dont rate Anton, what has he ever done in the third week of a gt

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