Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Anonymous]

Scarponi or Nibali

 

[goggalor]

I remember only one solid attack from him on Monte Grappa (I mean GT). Boring defensive cycling with hope to win time in ITT. My thought is winning GT made him even more сautious. ( Where he attacked on the Vuelta? Nibali prefers to use domestique like Kreuziger or Schmyd to give a feasible tempo that protects him from attacks of other contenders. I talk about final kms surely. Are you disagree?
Scarponi can climb Angliru using 53, i guess

I don't really agree that Nibs is a defensive rider, but I do despise liquigas' mind-numbingly boring super-dom tactic. Szmyd is to Basso/Nibali what HTC is to Cav.

Races like the Vuelta have a penalty for defensive riders. It's called time bonuses.

And climbs.

 

[AlejandroValverde]

Menchov. Not in top form on Giro, but was sick. Now aims 3rd win and when he is on his top form, may go pretty well. I bet him on winning La Vuelta 2011.

Nibali. Very consistent rider. On podiums in every gt in last 2 years in which taking part(Giro, Vuelta). He will ride quite good in highest mountains and that can lead him into 2nd.

Anton. Mountain chamois. Hope he can win Angrilu stage but i predict some stupid time losses will cross out his dreams about winning whole race.

On the 4th place i'd place Scarponi. He is such a strong guy, but i feel that here being 'only' consistent rider will not be enough.

 

[airstream]

I don't really agree that Nibs is a defensive rider, but I do despise liquigas' mind-numbingly boring super-dom tactic. Szmyd is to Basso/Nibali what HTC is to Cav.

I don't generally call him a defensive one, Nibali always only defends in a big mountains. As for HTC/Liqui comparison I disagree. HTC prepare Cav for an attack. If Liquigas are in front it may mean a defence. It's like Andy and Evans on Alpe d'Huez. Andy pulls not because he's strong, absolutely not, he realizes a slow pace can provoke Evans' attack. OK, probably our discussion is not for this thread. Thanx, i understand your point of view.

 

[Midnite]

Voted for Anton. The course this year is very mountainous and i believe him to be more of a climber than the other contenders, plus the time trial is on the first week prior to a rest day, so there will be plenty of time to assess and prepare a plan to comeback on time if that is necessary. I just hope Anton is lucky this year not to crash out of the race, because i believe he would have won last year's Vuelta as well.

Nibali will oubvisouly be a rider to challenge Anton so i would pick him for a second place.

I'm eager to see how VDB and Wiggins have recovered, if they are fine i think it will be very exciting, specially VDB. I don't think Wiggins can do a lot of damage on the mountains to be honest.

 

[Carols]

I'm leaning towards:

Anton
Nibali
Scarponi



Current odds:
Joaquim Rodriguez 5-1
Michele Scarponi 5-1
Igor Anton 5-1
Vincenzo Nibali 5-1
Denis Menchov 7-1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 12-1
Bradley Wiggins 17-1
Andreas Kloden 21-1
Janez Brajkovic 21-1
Carlos Sastre 81-1

Sorry I couldn't take anything less the 10-1 on Jrod
VBD2, nice price if you think he can get it done, I don't...
If for some reason you think Wiggins can win, put down your money!

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Major lols at all the people saying Anton will win if he doesn't crash.

Wiggins will win the tour if he gains 50W with no weight gain. About as likely.

Anton is a rider massively overrated because he normally withdraws before he has chance to fail, or people are willing to ignore data points because he says he wasn't trying. He's shown amazing ability on odd days, but never put a full tour together, or got anywhere close, at winning standard, so the level of confidence is utterly undeserved.

 

[iwasonbwh]

Denis Menchov will be very motivated,and has Sastre for some assistance.If he wins Geox may get a shot at HTC's World Tour licence next year?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I voted for Anton, and would like to see him win.

Menchov will definitely contend, but I think get dropped on enough climbs to make the difference. Klodi will crash at some point and be out of the running. If he doesn't, he could podium. Nibbles should podium. Lots of contenders watch. This should be a great Vuelta (as always these days!)

Agree that time bonuses help keep the Vuelta competitive and press rides to not sit and be defensive. I'm a big proponent for time bonuses.

[Working on the poll redirect, but it may be a tech problem beyond me.]

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think the TTT could turn out quite well for a team like Liquigas riding for Nibali.

If we look at the top 6 favourites according to the bookies:

Joaquim Rodriguez 5-1
Michele Scarponi 5-1
Igor Anton 5-1
Vincenzo Nibali 5-1
Denis Menchov 7-1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 12-1


Other than Nibali with Liquigas all those teams are renowned to be very average at the TTT and their lineups prove that. I might be being a little harsh on Lampre but that's just my take.

 

[greenedge]

The best battle will be Sastre VS Moncoutie for the KOM. If only we could bring Garzelli and Horner then it would be a 4way old style KOM contest.

 

[jobiwan]

I really thought about voting for Menchov, but I did that in the Giro, and it didn't work out so well

Anton should win this if he avoids the falls.

 

[auscyclefan94]

What is Anton's ITT like?

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Just had to post this for ACF94.

Cadel is apparently coming here to Utah tomorrow in time for the finish. He's going to pick up the squad and head over to Colorado.

I hope he finds the BMC team still in good spirits after tomorrow's queen stage.

 

[jobiwan]

What is Anton's ITT like?

Well, I don't know for sure, but I think he's better than Purito!

 

[auscyclefan94]

That's interesting though this is the Vuelta thread

Unsurprisingly BMC have been quite average in Utah.

 

[Swede1]

Well, I don't know for sure, but I think he's better than Purito!

I think he will be similar to Scarponi

 

[royalpig180]

I think he will be similar to Scarponi

That sounds about right. I'm too lazy to look up actualy TT results right now. In a week or 2 we'll ponder that.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Anton's had a 6th place in the Castilla Leon ITT this year against some decent competition. last year he had a 3rd place in castilla leon tt. The tt's he has done well in are generally on undulating courses. The long flat course in Salamanca may sort him out a bit.

 

[Ragerod]

I'm really looking forward to this and expect it to be the best GT this year. Having 5 guys with realistic ambitions of victory and a few more that could be a danger with a bit of luck should be fantastic.

I can't decide who I think will win but I'd like to see Anton finish and Wiggins prove that he can stay with the best in the mountains.

 

[greenedge]

The TDF also had a lot of guys who were higher quality ( Basso trumps Nibali in the Liquigas team hierarchy ) and had a lot of contenders as well. Here there is no one who is really the ultimate package to win the TDF: Menchov probably too old, Anton at times inconsistent, JROD has ITT issues, Nibali is still youngish and developing but is not a great attacker, Scarponi is good but you saw what happened on ETNA responding to Contador, but is overall very good and should focus on the TDF one time. Wiggins ( i like ) but everyone says he will not last in the mountains/ the race in 09 was dull and JVDB might not attack/ hold in mountains ( yet i still somehow think he will win the Vuelta )

Compare that to Basso, Evans, Vino, Shlecks, Contador, Gesink and all the rest.

This Vuelta will be purely exciting because most contenders have Flaws/ Weaknesses and are therefore evenly matched. Also the racing might be more full on.

Looking forward to it.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

lol do you think many at the tour what have responded to conta on etna better?

and yeah, nibbles giro form > basso tour form.

Vino etc = abandoned .
gesink = injured.

 

[The Hitch]

Compare that to Basso, Evans, Vino, Shlecks, Contador, Gesink and all the rest.

Forgetting someone?

lol do you think many at the tour what have responded to conta on etna better?

and yeah, nibbles giro form > basso tour form.

Vino etc = abandoned .
gesink = injured.

Good post Timmy. +1 on all counts.

And lets add "Samu = screwed" to the list.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The TDF also had a lot of guys who were higher quality ( Basso trumps Nibali in the Liquigas team hierarchy ) and had a lot of contenders as well. Here there is no one who is really the ultimate package to win the TDF: Menchov probably too old, Anton at times inconsistent, JROD has ITT issues, Nibali is still youngish and developing but is not a great attacker, Scarponi is good but you saw what happened on ETNA responding to Contador, but is overall very good and should focus on the TDF one time. Wiggins ( i like ) but everyone says he will not last in the mountains/ the race in 09 was dull and JVDB might not attack/ hold in mountains ( yet i still somehow think he will win the Vuelta )

Compare that to Basso, Evans, Vino, Shlecks, Contador, Gesink and all the rest.

OK.

Evans: until this Tour, had 0 GTs while Menchov had 3. If Menchov is "probably too old" it's worth noting that he's younger than Evans.

Basso: If Antón is "at times inconsistent", then that must surely apply to Basso too. Basso's two Giri help to make up the gulf in GTs made by Menchov prior to Evans' Tour win.

Schlecks: if J-Rod has ITT issues, then the Schlecks do too.

Gesink: if Nibali is still able to be dismissed as "young and developing" then the even younger Robert Gesink should definitely fall under that category. Hell, Nibbles is the same age as little Schleck, but has won a GT.

You mention Vino, but if Menchov is too old at 33, Vino was way older than that, AND crashed out.

You mention Contador, but Contador was actually there, doing the dominating.

Then you have the wildcard additions: Scarponi, Rujano. Who in the Tour is meant to be their equivalent? I guess Sammy Sánchez should count, since he was one of very few people to do anything in the Pyrenees. He's a good call in that respect. Rolland and Kruijswijk are the surprise packages and cancel each other out. But I'm not seeing how this Giro lineup should have these criticisms of age and inconsistency thrown at them yet the Tour's lineup be sacrosanct, because it suffers from all of the same weaknesses.

Sorry, but the Giro opposition is not leagues worse than the Tour's. And of the Frenchmen, Gadret is a better climber than Voeckler, and wasn't given a headstart.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Great parcours and an interesting field of contenders. Should be a terrific spectacle.

Not sure why Sastre is listed amongst the contenders. I would have thought he was well and truly cooked.

And I like the selections of Kloden for the win, but see them as very optimistic.

1. Nibali - a wonderfully consistent GT rider. Very underated.
2. Anton - great climber. Deserves a podium after what happened to him when leading last years race.
3. Kloden - more with my heart then head; looking forward to Tuesday week to see if he really does have a chance.