Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Zinoviev Letter]

have bet on dan martin, £10 @ odds of 150 for return of £1500 = new carbon bike
Seriously good odds on him,

Yes, 150 to 1 is the kind of odds - setting that someone could live to regret, when you are talking about a talented climber whose limits aren't really clear. 100 to 1 on Kruijswijk is another one that surprised me. Both should be very much outsiders, but there are outsiders and then there are outsiders. If I was a bookmaker I wouldn't feel comfortable offering odds better than 40 to 1 on either. What if one of them goes nuts on a mountain stage and the big favourites watch each other?

dont rate Anton, what has he ever done in the third week of a gt, he was beating Nibali in the Giro this year or was close and had a shocker, hes inconsistent

That's a bit harsh. If he hadn't fallen off his bike last year, he'd have finished first or second. Third at the absolute worst. I'd be more worried about his ITT than his consistency in the mountains. He's shown a lot more in the third week of GTs than Dan Martin has!

 

[SHAD0W93]

I say the top 10 will be:
1. Menchov
2. Nibali
3. Kloden
4. Anton
5. Rodriguez
6. Roche
7. Van den Broeck
8. Scarponi
9. Wiggins
10. Brajkovic

 

[The Hitch]

Yes, 150 to 1 is the kind of odds - setting that someone could live to regret, when you are talking about a talented climber whose limits aren't really clear. 100 to 1 on Kruijswijk is another one that surprised me. Both should be very much outsiders, but there are outsiders and then there are outsiders. If I was a bookmaker I wouldn't feel comfortable offering odds better than 40 to 1 on either. What if one of them goes nuts on a mountain stage and the big favourites watch each other?

Id say Dan Martin should have better odds than Kruiswick because we saw in the Giro that Kruiswick (sorry if i mispell it) isnt capable of beating Nibali Scarponi Purito Menchov in a gt.

Dan Martin on the other hand is as you say an unknown quantity. He hasnt faced any of them in a gt this year so while his chances of total failure might be greater than Kruiswicks, his chances of success are also greater.

I do wish i had access to a betting site so that i could put even £1 on Martin just in case. Of course it would probably involve some Oscar Perreiro Sio like luck, or maybe Anton taking down the entire heads of state group with him but still.

 

[Nielsa]

100 to 1 on Kruijswijk is another one that surprised me. Both should be very much outsiders, but there are outsiders and then there are outsiders.

I agree the bookmakers give surprisingly high odds sometimes - I saw a site giving 250 to 1 on Cunego winning this year's TdF.

 

[jsem94]

Totally forgot about Kruijswijk. But I don't think he'll match the greats, he'll end up at 5th-8th ish. He'll be even stronger next year though, no doubt about that.

 

[hfer07]

That's a bit harsh. If he hadn't fallen off his bike last year, he'd have finished first or second. Third at the absolute worst. I'd be more worried about his ITT than his consistency in the mountains. He's shown a lot more in the third week of GTs than Dan Martin has!

maybe is a bit harsh-but realistic, and that's why I do believe is difficult to say Igor is the main favorite-He rode this year's Giro which was tailor made for his qualities & yet he didn't make the podium-and yes-considering he didn't have his form a 100% then, I am inclined to believe he will be better prepared for the Vuelta-but so Nibali, Scarponi & many more will too, so the competition is going to be tougher for him...

I hope he can prove us wrong- I like him a lot

 

[the asian]

I say the top 10 will be:
1. Menchov
2. Nibali
3. Kloden
4. Anton
5. Rodriguez
6. Roche
7. Van den Broeck
8. Scarponi
9. Wiggins
10. Brajkovic

No way Kolden is going to podium. It's also very unlikely that Menchov will win, but can't write him off.

 

[theyoungest]

Id say Dan Martin should have better odds than Kruiswick because we saw in the Giro that Kruiswick (sorry if i mispell it) isnt capable of beating Nibali Scarponi Purito Menchov in a gt.

Dan Martin on the other hand is as you say an unknown quantity. He hasnt faced any of them in a gt this year so while his chances of total failure might be greater than Kruiswicks, his chances of success are also greater.

I do wish i had access to a betting site so that i could put even £1 on Martin just in case. Of course it would probably involve some Oscar Perreiro Sio like luck, or maybe Anton taking down the entire heads of state group with him but still.

If you ride two GTs and you show no signs of consistency and recovery over 3 weeks, apparently you're an "unknown quantity" in GTs, and you're worth placing your bets on. However, if you ride two GTs and you clearly show these signs, and improve strongly while doing so, you have no chance, and you are too much of a gamble

 

[Tank Engine]

I say the top 10 will be:
1. Menchov
2. Nibali
3. Kloden
4. Anton
5. Rodriguez
6. Roche
7. Van den Broeck
8. Scarponi
9. Wiggins
10. Brajkovic

Klodi says his back is not 100% (maybe he's trying to deflect pressure, but there is probably some truth in what he says). Menchov is a bit of a dark horse. I'm only surprised by your prediction for Roche, above VdB and Scarponi Now that I would like to see.

 

[greenedge]

I don't know if Scarponi might try too hard to stick with Anton in the mountains. Unlike Nibali he does not pace himself. I can envisage him however getting a lot of bonuses, on the hills. Surprised that JVDB has got so many votes, there have not been many endorsements on him here on this thread???

 

[theyoungest]

I voted Igor Anton. I don't really think he can do it (in fact I think he's rated a bit too highly for someone who's only finished in the top-10 of a GT once, four (!) years ago) but he's the one you'd want to see winning this.

 

[LandEscape]

Starting grid
1 Nibali
2 Scarponi
3 Menchov (Geox HAS to do something)
4 Anton
5 Van den Broeck
6 Rodriguez

 

[Moondance]

My top 10:

1. Anton
2. Purito
3. Scarponi
4. Neebs
5. Menchov
6. VDB2
7. Wigans
8. Klodi
9. Brajkovic
10. Kruijswijk


Anton and Purito go twelve rounds on all the mountain stages, bashing each other's brains in with eye watering attacks on the steep ramps. Eventually, the 1 min Anton gained on the TT proves decisive.

Neebs and Scarponi have a Giro-esque battle it out for the prestigious 'Non-Iberian Jersey' with each day producing a shift in the dynamic of their duel.

I'd have liked to put VDB2 a little higher, but i think it will be very hard not too lose significant time on stage 4 to Sierra Nevada, or stage 5 to Cordoba, considering he'll be just coming back from quite a serious injury. He'll strengthen as the race goes on, and maybe he'll go for some stage wins (and mountains jersey) on some of the final climbing stages like the Angliru or Pena Cabarga.

 

[Duartista]

1 Menchov
2 Anton
3 Scarponi
4 Nibali
5 Rodriguez
6 Cobo
7 Roche
8 Nieve
9 Brajkovic
10 Sastre

I'm fairly confident in the top 5, although one of them will probably fail. The rest are fairly random guesses. I think Wiggins and VDB will struggle; Moncoutie seems in good enough shape to make the lower reaches of the top 10, but will probably lose time on purpose to go for stage wins.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I am actually leaning towards Menchov ftw. I don't think it is smart to have all the favourites in your top 10 as that never happens.

My top 3

1.Menchov - his superiority in the ITT could give him the buffer to bring it home to Madrid
2. Anton - his climbing prowess is very good but the ITT and some of the lesser likely stages where he is likely to get caught up in something may lose it for him.
3. Scarponi - is improving his tt and is kinda in the middle of Menchov and Anton of what he can do. A good TTT could get a handy little buffer over some of the other favourites teams though I don't think he'll match the others on some of the big MTF's like the angliru.

Expect a good ride from Matthias Frank. He may become very bad *** and be the surprise of al vuelta.

 

[Moondance]

I am actually leaning towards Menchov ftw. I don't think it is smart to have all the favourites in your top 10 as that never happens.

My top 3

1.Menchov - his superiority in the ITT could give him the buffer to bring it home to Madrid
2. Anton - his climbing prowess is very good but the ITT and some of the lesser likely stages where he is likely to get caught up in something may lose it for him.
3. Scarponi - is improving his tt and is kinda in the middle of Menchov and Anton of what he can do. A good TTT could get a handy little buffer over some of the other favourites teams though I don't think he'll match the others on some of the big MTF's like the angliru.

Expect a good ride from Matthias Frank. He may become very bad *** and be the surprise of al vuelta.

He did very well in the Giro of course.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Expect isn't the right word but I think he may do a good ride. He struggled a lot with ilness in what was pretty much his first grand tour.

 

[Midnightfright]

Very surprised Purito has the same number of votes as Scarponi. No way Purito finishes above Scarponi. Anyone else think JRod had a reasonable chance at the points jersey with all the sprinters dropping out.

 

[cineteq]

It will come down to 1 of these 6 riders:

1. Nibali
2. Wiggins
3. Menchov
4. Anton
5. Scarponi
6. Rodriguez

I'll give the edge to one of the better ITT riders for the overall win.
So Lo Squalo FTW!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Lo Squalo would be 3rd on that list for tt riders behind Denis and brad

 

[cineteq]

Lo Squalo would be 3rd on that list for tt riders behind Denis and brad

Maybe, but at least you agree that it will be one the best ITT riders of the group.

PS: I still don't understand why Anton got so many votes based on just last year's Vuelta. It doesn't make sense.

 

[jens_attacks]

PS: I still don't understand why Anton got so many votes based on just last year's Vuelta. It doesn't make sense.

it's all a psychological thing.most of the people saw how igor left the vuelta last year and now they will cheer for him.plus he's a very spectacular rider and incredibly modest.

 

[classicomano]

No love for TGBM!?

 

[cineteq]

it's all a psychological thing.most of the people saw how igor left the vuelta last year and now they will cheer for him.plus he's a very spectacular rider and incredibly modest.

He's indeed a very likeable guy and he'll be putting on a show on few stages..i'll give him that

 

[buster1]

Picked Wiggins but with no confidence whatsoever. Just think that his form prior to TDF was very good and in hindsight probably could have podiumed TDF had he not fallen off, also his TT ability in a long TT could be the one thing that seperates him from an evenly matched field where there are about 6 guys who would genuinely fancy themselves to win it.

I hope Anton wins though!