Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Angliru]

Very kind of you. Alas, having repeatedly mocked the received wisdom on Anton in this thread, I am determined to gloat for a little while, before spending the rest of this evening in the slightly less entertaining pursuit of throwing away half my possessions pre flat move.

In my case Anton was/is the sentimental favorite, the rider I'm rooting for the most to win. I see Nibali as the likely winner but I can still hope for Anton but after today's time loss, almost all hope is lost .

 

[Fergoose]

With Kloden, Menchov & Anton's woes 44% of votes are pretty much out of the window already and we've not even had a stage that was meant to shuffle the GC!

I'm extremely tempted to switch to Van den Broeck now as I thought there was a decent chance he wouldn't even be in condition for a relatively mild stage like todays (given the heat) so voting for him would have been daft as he could easily have done a Kloden. That was the only reason I never picked him.

Infact, feck it. Cheerio Rodriguez, I'm switching and sticking with VdB who for me is the most talented and consistent rider in this competition. I love watching Nibali and think he has better support, but my hunch is VdB can have him.

 

[Duartista]

I wouldn't write Menchov off yet. He's two minutes behind Nibali on GC, much of which he could make up in the time trial (in theory). He claims to be feeling good, and Nibali is not immune to one or two bad days in the mountains.

That said, Wiggins and Van den Broeck are looking much better than I expected, which will make a podium more complicated for those who have already lost time.

 

[just some guy]

Scarponi the forgotten man - riding smart good team helpers

 

[The_Z_man]

Obviously it won't be Cav.

 

[Winterfold]

My someone else is Scarponi - a good TT and he will be second the more I think about it.

 

[The Hitch]

Anton failed and its very mysterious. We didnt hear of any problems and last year he took the same approach and was owning everyone else.

I wonder whats up.

If it was Evans we would already have 3 official excuses from the team by now

 

[Duartista]

Anton failed and its very mysterious. We didnt hear of any problems and last year he took the same approach and was owning everyone else.

I wonder whats up.

If it was Evans we would already have 3 official excuses from the team by now

The major difference from last year is that he did the Giro this year. I recall him saying something before the race about how he could feel in his legs that he had already done a GT this year.

 

[cineteq]

Anton failed and its very mysterious. We didnt hear of any problems and last year he took the same approach and was owning everyone else. I wonder whats up.

Well, it seems to me it's the same syndrome that A. Schleck was suffering from this year at TdF...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, it seems to me it's the same syndrome that A. Schleck was suffering from this year at TdF...

No, Antón clearly doesn't have the form or level to compete, Andy Schleck just raced like a wimp for the first 17 stages.

 

[The Hitch]

No, Antón clearly doesn't have the form or level to compete, Andy Schleck just raced like a wimp for the first 17 stages.

Didnt matter though. It was a 1 week race.

Right?

The major difference from last year is that he did the Giro this year. I recall him saying something before the race about how he could feel in his legs that he had already done a GT this year.

While i am in no position to mock that myself, as i would feel a Giro in my legs for the rest of my life, it is pretty surprising by pro cycling standards. A lot of his rivals have done the Giro and some have done the Tour. Youd expect a top gt rider to handle 2 gts a year, especially with a 3 month gap.

 

[cineteq]

No, Antón clearly doesn't have the form or level to compete, Andy Schleck just raced like a wimp for the first 17 stages.

I was referring to preparation of course. And yes, Schleck had too many issues besides a conscious preparation.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Didnt matter though. It was a 1 week race.

Right?




While i am in no position to mock that myself, as i would feel a Giro in my legs for the rest of my life, it is pretty surprising by pro cycling standards. A lot of his rivals have done the Giro and some have done the Tour. Youd expect a top gt rider to handle 2 gts a year, especially with a 3 month gap.

Especially considering he did the Tour-Vuelta in 2009, albeit as a support rider.

 

[l.Harm]

Almost all of his rivals has done the Giro. But it could be it has an other effect on Anton than on the others. If I look at him on tv I don't see a strong man, I don't say that's the reason but it could be one of them.

 

[usedtobefast]

just watching today's stage he(Anton) appeared to be suffering from the heat. he may have gotten dehydrated in the last days and was paying for it today. he still is not that far back and if he comes around, could still do a good result. the heat is merciless when you are not going as well as you would like.

 

[daveinzambia]

why did i listen to you all

as Anton's chances of winning faded yesterday so did my chances of winning that IG Markets pinarello.

Listen to the forum Dave. they know best Dave. why did i not put Nibali down.

 

[Duartista]

Didnt matter though. It was a 1 week race.

Right?




While i am in no position to mock that myself, as i would feel a Giro in my legs for the rest of my life, it is pretty surprising by pro cycling standards. A lot of his rivals have done the Giro and some have done the Tour. Youd expect a top gt rider to handle 2 gts a year, especially with a 3 month gap.

Especially considering he did the Tour-Vuelta in 2009, albeit as a support rider.

Perhaps he took too long a break after the Giro and thus didn't prepare as well as last year? Whilst I agree that it shouldn't be a factor, perhaps Anton is a rider who needs everthing to go perfectly in order be at or near his best. Barring an illness that the team hasn't revealed, the only other reasons I can think of are the pressure of being favourite - but that wouldn't explain a complete lack of form - or the heat (which affects everyone, obv.).

Just to show I didn't pluck this out of thin air, here is what Igor G de G said a couple of weeks ago:

¿Qué sensaciones te dejó Antón en la Vuelta a Burgos?
De haber corrido una vuelta grande anterior. Yo creo que está bien, aunque le falta un punto que esperemos que entre la recuperación de Burgos y dos entrenamientos más que tiene que hacer de cara a la Vuelta pues le dé el golpe de pedal necesario para empezar a un buen nivel.

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=42231

Maybe that is what I was thinking of, as I can't find the actual Anton quote.

 

[theyoungest]

Kruijswijk says it's hard to gauge the form of the other riders, but he mentions one guy who is going particularly well, in his opinion: Bradley Wiggins.

 

[MartinGT]

why did i listen to you all

as Anton's chances of winning faded yesterday so did my chances of winning that IG Markets pinarello.

Listen to the forum Dave. they know best Dave. why did i not put Nibali down.

Edge your bets kid

Ive got Anton, Nibali, JRod & Scarponi Thats for bets though, if youre talking about that

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Perhaps he took too long a break after the Giro and thus didn't prepare as well as last year? Whilst I agree that it shouldn't be a factor, perhaps Anton is a rider who needs everthing to go perfectly in order be at or near his best. Barring an illness that the team hasn't revealed, the only other reasons I can think of are the pressure of being favourite - but that wouldn't explain a complete lack of form - or the heat (which affects everyone, obv.).

The signs were there when he was nowhere in Burgos. Last year he was superdomestiquing for Samu there; this year Samu cracked and it wasn't Antón but Landa who was the last man with him; last year Antón ground away on the front until Nibali and Mosquera were cracking, before Samu snuck away for the win; this year Samu cracked, Landa took the win himself and Antón was long gone. "It's only a warmup race" I thought - but it seems like Antón's one of those guys who can't just turn form on like a lightswitch and needs to build up to it.

 

[Ewbles]

Well, I had Anton, so at least I'm not alone in picking badly. For all his win today tough, Rodriguez's acceleration didn't seem to be as frightening as it sometimes is. Maybe he just didn't need it to be. Still and all, I think I'm shifting my pick to Scarponi now.

 

[Angliru]

The signs were there when he was nowhere in Burgos. Last year he was superdomestiquing for Samu there; this year Samu cracked and it wasn't Antón but Landa who was the last man with him; last year Antón ground away on the front until Nibali and Mosquera were cracking, before Samu snuck away for the win; this year Samu cracked, Landa took the win himself and Antón was long gone. "It's only a warmup race" I thought - but it seems like Antón's one of those guys who can't just turn form on like a lightswitch and needs to build up to it.

Appears in his case its best to stick to what worked for him in the past, with that being his 2010 race schedule. He certainly came into last year's Vuelta with guns blazing.

 

[cineteq]

Appears in his case its best to stick to what worked for him in the past, with that being his 2010 race schedule. He certainly came into last year's Vuelta with guns blazing.

All in all, you got to love his personality and humility. He recognizes that his preparation didn't go as expected, and the main thing is to get better as he rides along the stages. He will certainly try and win a stage...

http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/videos/vuelta-ciclista-a-espana/anton-siento-pelea-general/1181278/

 

[hrotha]

Appears in his case its best to stick to what worked for him in the past, with that being his 2010 race schedule. He certainly came into last year's Vuelta with guns blazing.

He's 28 now. I don't think asking him to have a fuller racing calendar is unreasonable.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Antón had only done 9 more racing days pre-Vuelta this year than last - and that's with the whole Giro in there. However, in 2010 one of his Vuelta warmups was to do the Vuelta a Madrid in mid-late July before Burgos; in 2011 that race had moved to May, when he was at the Giro, and not replaced; he had done just 7 days of racing to warm up for the Vuelta - Ordizia, Getxo and the Vuelta a Burgos; in 2010 it was 10 days of racing, starting a week earlier and with the Vuelta starting a week later. His break started at the same time (after the Bayern Rundfahrt in 2010, after the Giro this year).