Who will win the 2015 Vuelta?

[Rollthedice]

This will be an Astana/Movistar affair. In the end Nibali vs. Valverde.

 

[SeriousSam]

I kinda hope Froome doesn't magically turn up in 2012/2013 TT form. If he is his mediocre time trial self, it's a very open race. Otherwise, Froome.

Odds suggest Quintana, I don't see it.

 

[Gigs_98]

The question was easy in the giro, not that hard in the tour and "not possible to find a good answer" in the vuelta. This race is so open. Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Valverde, Purito, Aru, Landa, Tejay, Pozzo, Majka. These are all absolutely possible, and none of these would really surprise me...not even Pozzo and that says about everything.
If I have to pick I choose Aru. He is the strongest gt rider who didnt ride the tour (IMO) so he will be fresh and has a general strength. However if one of the 3 "big4" riders has recovered very well, that rider is probably the absolute favorite (no matter if there is a TT or not. Quintana also lost 1.5 minutes in the cross winds in this tour and he wasnt that far behind at the end. If he rides a gt with a better climbing shape than froome he will probably win it except the gt really has a lot TT kilometers and no this vuelta doesnt have a lot, less than 40 km's are still very little)

 

[42x16ss]

The question was easy in the giro, not that hard in the tour and "not possible to find a good answer" in the vuelta. This race is so open. Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Valverde, Purito, Aru, Landa, Tejay, Pozzo, Majka. These are all absolutely possible, and none of these would really surprise me...not even Pozzo and that says about everything.
If I have to pick I choose Aru. He is the strongest gt rider who didnt ride the tour (IMO) so he will be fresh and has a general strength. However if one of the 3 "big4" riders has recovered very well, that rider is probably the absolute favorite (no matter if there is a TT or not. Quintana also lost 1.5 minutes in the cross winds in this tour and he wasnt that far behind at the end. If he rides a gt with a better climbing shape than froome he will probably win it except the gt really has a lot TT kilometers and no this vuelta doesnt have a lot, less than 40 km's are still very little)

That's the big thing, Aru will be fresh. I don't know if he'll win it but the podium is certainly possible and I can see him creating the move that sparks the win (similar to the Gautier/Rolland move at the Giro last year).

If Quintana can recover from the Tour I see him being very hard to beat. He'll want to make up for crashing out last year and being beaten in the Tour. Froome doesn't seem to be as good in his second GT of the year, he'll give a good account of himself but not sure if he can win. Hopefully Nibali can recover from his relatively sub par Tour, will have to wait and see.

Valverde and Majka to both top 5, possibly podium. This is going to be a cracker.

 

[gregrowlerson]

So... who will? Cast your votes.

Where is the Vino AKA Schleck option?

I have $40 on him at 300-1

 

[gregrowlerson]

So... who will? Cast your votes.

Where is the Vino AKA Schleck option?

I have $40 on him at 300-1

Only a $10 maximum bet

Oh well, I hope that Frank will still take me on an amusing ride for at least the first week!

 

[Nirvana]

I hope Purito but i think will be third behind Valverde and Nibali.

 

[jsem94]

Honestly, I don't know. This race is wide open. But if I had to choose one, I'd pick Valverde.

 

[l.Harm]

You guys think Nibali will target GC?

 

[Jspear]

Re:

You guys think Nibali will target GC?

His team thinks he will. They haven't come out with a clear gc leader. It's between Aru and Nibbes.

 

[fungusbear]

As long as Aru does not win I am happy
I want Quintana to win, but I can't see it happening with only a few multi-mountain stages and the flat TT. Would love to see Nibali win but I can't see him being strong enough after the tour. I think probably Valverde or Aru might take it which I would dislike strongly. Froome will be a step below in the mountains and move up to top 5 or even podium from the TT.

1. Valverde
2. Aru
3. Quintana
4. Pozzovivo
5. Froome

The most exciting thing about this race is that all of us are in the dark. Form for most of the main contenders is questionable at best and hopefully there will be lots of twists and surprises. Bring it on!!!

 

[Carols]

"He thought about it himself, and decided that the best thing to do was to ride the Vuelta. As a manager I hope that Vincenzo rides this Vuelta with three things in mind – to be a protagonist, to help Fabio to win the race, and to treat this as a new start, the start of the 2016 season," Martinelli said.

Sounds like Astana has a Vuelta leader to me. Aru for the win unless Nibali shows some much better form than Aru. Nibs has always played the good teammate.

 

[SafeBet]

Nibbles is not Landa.
If Aru is dropped big time like on Mortirolo Martinelli will give Nibbles freedom before we can even post about it.

 

[dacooley]

valverde
quintana
froome

 

[Pricey_sky]

I honestly think this is the toughest GT of the year to predict. In the Giro it was all about Contador, the Tour I believed would be between Froome and Quintana, which proved correct but this one is close.

I think Quintana will show the best form from those who did the Tour but I think Astana will be strong with 2 contenders. I just have a sneaky feeling that Surpassing these will be a fresh Pozzovivo.

 

[DFA123]

I don't get the hype around Aru. He's never finished ahead of a top tier rider at GT - it's a bit of a stretch to see him suddenly finishing above four of them in one tour.

Last year at the Vuelta he was the freshest of the top 5, with the others either having all finished the TdF or having recently missed training through injury, and he still could only finish fifth. Add in the flat time trial this year, as well as possible competition to be team leader, and it will be even harder for him.

 

[Carols]

Re:

Nibbles is not Landa.
If Aru is dropped big time like on Mortirolo Martinelli will give Nibbles freedom before we can even post about it.

Like I said 'unless Nibali shows some much better form than Aru.' Which I Hope happens but Aru is fresh and Nibs is not.....

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

I honestly think this is the toughest GT of the year to predict. In the Giro it was all about Contador, the Tour I believed would be between Froome and Quintana, which proved correct but this one is close.

I think Quintana will show the best form from those who did the Tour but I think Astana will be strong with 2 contenders. I just have a sneaky feeling that Surpassing these will be a fresh Pozzovivo.

Last week could end up being the main problem for Pozzovivo. He has improved as a TTer, but he's vulnerable on those downhill finishes. Speaking about that, does anybody know if the descents from Puerto de la Casera and Puerto de Cotos are technical? They could be difference makers.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Like I said 'unless Nibali shows some much better form than Aru.' Which I Hope happens but Aru is fresh and Nibs is not.....

I understand your point.
I'm just saying Aru could be in super shape and still have a bad day like in the Giro. And in that case, I don't think Nibali is going to wait for him.

There's alwways Landa for that

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

Like I said 'unless Nibali shows some much better form than Aru.' Which I Hope happens but Aru is fresh and Nibs is not.....

I understand your point.
I'm just saying Aru could be in super shape and still have a bad day like in the Giro. And in that case, I don't think Nibali is going to wait for him.

There's alwways Landa for that

Fingers crossed then

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I honestly think this is the toughest GT of the year to predict. In the Giro it was all about Contador, the Tour I believed would be between Froome and Quintana, which proved correct but this one is close.

I think Quintana will show the best form from those who did the Tour but I think Astana will be strong with 2 contenders. I just have a sneaky feeling that Surpassing these will be a fresh Pozzovivo.

Last week could end up being the main problem for Pozzovivo. He has improved as a TTer, but he's vulnerable on those downhill finishes. Speaking about that, does anybody know if the descents from Puerto de la Casera and Puerto de Cotos are technical? They could be difference makers.

The Puerto de Cotos descent is a real highspeed descent with hardly any turns and a very wide street, so I doubt anyone will a lot of time there.
Puerto de la Casera is harder to say. The descent also isnt that technical but the street isnt in the best condition and its rather narrow. However, ofc its likely that the street will be in a much better condition at the vuelta.

 

[DBotero]

Valverde vs J.Rod vs Froome in the battle for podium places,hopefully Valverde will win it.Aru to be the best of the Astana trio,TVG to get the 5th place.If Majka shows up in great shape he will in the mix too.

 

[bala v]

Re:

Nibbles is not Landa.
If Aru is dropped big time like on Mortirolo Martinelli will give Nibbles freedom before we can even post about it.

He wont even ask for freedom, he'll just go.
He was a team player when rode with Basso, but Basso was a legend and maybe even idol for him, don't know how much will he sacrifice for Aru, nor will he at all. Nibali is in his prime, I don't think he is coming to this Vuelta to work for anyone, especially for a rider who's much younger and arguably weaker than him

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Nibbles is not Landa.
If Aru is dropped big time like on Mortirolo Martinelli will give Nibbles freedom before we can even post about it.

Martinelli will have a nighmare in northern Spain if Landa is the stronger and he dont give the leadership.

 

[jsem94]

Oh, and Pozzovivo to podium. He just needs to not have a horrid TTT/ITT.