Who will win the 2020 Giro? (Rest day 1 edition)

[46&twoWheels]

'Fuzelgang' is still the funniest mispronounciation I have seen

I still don't get how's pronounced. "Reading" (rather looking at) your signature I assume you're dane right? Is it "Fullsan" because you tend to eat consonants for breakfast, or a more standard pseudo-germanisch "vugelsang" ?
yesterday Gianni Bugno on RAI called him "Fuzlan" and I giggled.

 

[will-10]

Wilco looks great but can he manage another two weeks without bad luck?
Would like to see Almeida hang on but if we make it through the third week I can't see it happening.
Head says Nibali.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Heart - Almeida. Though that's putting a lot of hope into ITTs and stage cancellations.
Head - not a clue though I've a feeling Nibs, Kelderman, Fuglsang and Kruijswijk will cancel each other out and someone steals it.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

I still don't get how's pronounced. "Reading" (rather looking at) your signature I assume you're dane right? Is it "Fullsan" because you tend to eat consonants for breakfast, or a more standard pseudo-germanisch "vugelsang" ?
yesterday Gianni Bugno on RAI called him "Fuzlan" and I giggled.

https://www.pronouncekiwi.com/Fuglsang (disambiguation)
The nr. 2 danish pronounciation on the list is spot on.

 

[tobydawq]

Nibali might sneak a top five.

I voted Fuglsang but probably should have voted Kelderman. He has quite an advantage with the time trials and usually he holds his level throughout a Grand Tour (he has been top 10 the past three years in the Vuelta and been best in the final parts of the races).

I don't think Almeida has any chance whatsoever. If it's still going to be a reasonably hard race, route-wise.

 

[tobydawq]

Did the Tour.

So he has trained well. He also did the Worlds. It's a tough schedule and he already showed signs of fatigue yesterday where he should have been better if he wants to keep up. A good time trialist compared to many others, though.

 

[tobydawq]

I still don't get how's pronounced. "Reading" (rather looking at) your signature I assume you're dane right? Is it "Fullsan" because you tend to eat consonants for breakfast, or a more standard pseudo-germanisch "vugelsang" ?
yesterday Gianni Bugno on RAI called him "Fuzlan" and I giggled.

Both G's are silent. Fugl is pronounced exactly like the English "fool" and Sang like the French "sans".

 

[topcat]

Nibali might sneak a top five.

I voted Fuglsang but probably should have voted Kelderman. He has quite an advantage with the time trials and usually he holds his level throughout a Grand Tour (he has been top 10 the past three years in the Vuelta and been best in the final parts of the races).

I don't think Almeida has any chance whatsoever. If it's still going to be a reasonably hard race, route-wise.

In the bag in the trophy cabinet, no need for voodoo this time.

 

[Red Rick]

Looking at this thread, I'm mostly surprised at how 20s-30s here and there make a gap insurmountable based on? Etna? An uphill sprint?

I think Fuglsang and Nibali are the clear favorites for now.

 

[tobydawq]

Looking at this thread, I'm mostly surprised at how 20s-30s here and there make a gap insurmountable based on? Etna? An uphill sprint?

I think Fuglsang and Nibali are the clear favorites for now.

Why not Kelderman? Just because he is Dutch and you're used to seeing him have accidents?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think it's just because we have a hard time imagining Kelderman to not have either a bad day or bad luck. It's a bit like Porte TDF podium. Unthinkable until it happens

 

[Red Rick]

Why not Kelderman? Just because he is Dutch and you're used to seeing him have accidents?

Because he's 29 and I can't think of a single stage in his career where he climbed like a potential GT champion.

 

[tobydawq]

Because he's 29 and I can't think of a single stage in his career where he climbed like a potential GT champion.

No but he does now (honestly, he has been looking exactly as strong as Fuglsang so far) and as I said, he usually doesn't drop his level during a GT if he stays upright.

I mean, "Kelderman the Giro champion" doesn't really sound right in my ears either, but it's not exactly the most loaded of races.

 

[Red Rick]

No but he does now (honestly, he has been looking exactly as strong as Fuglsang so far) and as I said, he usually doesn't drop his level during a GT if he stays upright.

I mean, "Kelderman the Giro champion" doesn't really sound right in my ears, either but it's not exactly the most loaded of races.

IMO Fuglsang has at least shown much better than his GT results in shorter stage races, primarily by winning the Dauphine twice. Kelderman has never won a MTF IIRC? In Tirreno he was also one of the stronger guys on the punchy stages but less so on Sassotetto

Meanwhile the only climb that gives any real indication of climbing form was Etna where they let him go and he got like 10s in the end?

 

[tobydawq]

IMO Fuglsang has at least shown much better than his GT results in shorter stage races, primarily by winning the Dauphine twice. Kelderman has never won a MTF IIRC? In Tirreno he was also one of the stronger guys on the punchy stages but less so on Sassotetto

Meanwhile the only climb that gives any real indication of climbing form was Etna where they let him go and he got like 10s in the end?

No he has never won a MTF. He has four wins as a pro, three ITT's and the overall GC of the Tour of Denmark. That's twice as many victories as Kruijswijk, though, who has won MTF win from the Tour de Suisse nine years ago.

I think it was pretty impressive to keep the others at bay on Etna. There was some stop-and-go but generally most go and I think they were riding quite fast but never really got close to him.

My thinking before yesterday was that Fuglsang was the strongest rider in the race but I wasn't able to compare him to Kelderman because of his early attack on Etna. Then yesterday they both seemed quite at ease on the final straight where all the others were suffering.

It's true that he wasn't very good on Sassotetto but maybe he was riding it as a preparation race and hadn't yet reached peak shape.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

But @Red Rick put it into perspective:

On the Sassotetto, from the current Giro cyclists. Only Majka did better than Kelderman by 14 seconds. Yates, Thomas, Vlasov aren't here. The other Giro participants were further behind...
Fugl by 1'30. Nibs by almost 3 minutes.

 

[42x16ss]

Astana team is basically non-existent, but the Etna stage and today's stage really make me think that none of the contenders are going to have any help at the end of these high mountain stages, at which point if they are all level on time it's going to come down to who has the best individual legs.

Nibali will have Ciccone, and I think that's going to be a game breaker.

Hindley and Kelderman seem to work well but I doubt they can match them. The rest will probably be alone with the possible exception of Hamilton/Haig if they can hang on, but that's a big if.

Fuglsang would have had the best team, but no Vlasov or Lopez...

 

[shalgo]

If Kelderman wins I will know that sometime in the last year we split off from a logical universe. Somewhere else in the multiverse is a world with no covid and where the “next Merckx” who wins the 2020 Giro is Evenepoel.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's really hard to choose between the four favourites. Nibali and Kruijswijk are more experienced and might peak in the third week. However at the moment Fuglsang and Kelderman look stronger. A lot will depend on decisions by the organizers. Agnello and Izoard might very well be cancelled, but could be replaced by Finestre. Stelvio isn't sure either. So my guess for the top 10 is pretty much at random:

1. Fuglsang
2. Kelderman
3. Nibali
4. Kruijswijk
5. Majka
6. Pozzovivo
7. Konrad
8. Bilbao
9. Almeida
10. Zakarin

 

[Jan the Man]

The head says someone like Nibali or Fuglslang. However have a feeling Kruijswik may be able to ride himself into decent enough shape to pose a real challenge in week 3, subject to the stages not being cancelled.

 

[RedheadDane]

However have a feeling Kruijswik may be able to ride himself into decent enough shape to pose a real challenge in week 3

No, he won't.

 

[Forever The Best]

Joao Almeida or Wilco Kelderman. Depending on the cancellations and the race going all the way or not. Fuglsang may have a chance too if he uses the hills of week 2 well. Nibali's chances are stages 18 and 20 without cancellations/shortenings.

Voted for Kelderman, but that was before the positive cases for multiple riders.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nobody!

 

[dutchdescent]

Nobody!

Agree it will be all shut down soon

 

[SarahtheDane]

Well, Fuglsang wont.