Vuelta a España Who will win the 2022 Vuelta a España? Third rest day poll

[Tonton]

Mas is my biggest disappointment. Choosing the vulture approach, stepping over a Dollar to get a dime. I hope that Ayuso beats him. And/or Joao. I like lesser riders with more heart.

 

[Cookster15]

He lost time because he dragged Roglic' ass up a 20k climb at 2500m altitude, after which Roglic took 15s out of him. Yeah, i don't think he needs to be thinking Roglic is stronger than him right now.

We are guessing - that includes you. He is yet to finish a grand tour and he was popular with the media in last years Giro until the wheels fell off in the 3rd week. Hopefully he proves the doubters wrong. But I am quite confident Roglic will continue to strengthen. And we also know Jumbo has a strong team should Roglic need it.

Ps - Cadel Evans dragged what was left of the peloton on stage 18 to 2,600+ metres in the 2011 TdF - and didn’t lose time to Andy the following day to AdH before demolishing him in the stage 20 TT. If you are strong enough dragging other riders does not matter.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

We are guessing - that includes you. He is yet to finish a grand tour and he was popular with the media in last years Giro until the wheels fell off in the 3rd week. Hopefully he proves the doubters wrong. But I am quite confident Roglic will continue to strengthen. And we also know Jumbo has a strong team should Roglic need it.

Ps - Cadel Evans dragged what was left of the peloton on stage 18 to 2,600+ metres in the 2011 TdF - and didn’t lose time to Andy the following day to AdH before demolishing him in the stage 20 TT. If you are strong enough dragging other riders does not matter.

I am guessing... that if Roglic was better than Evenepoel today, he would have taken more than 15s after sitting in his wheel for the entire climb.
I'm kidding. I'm not guessing at all. My comment was a response to your claim about him losing time, not about the third week. I thought that was obvious.

Regarding the third week, i wrote what i believe in the same post above my response to your post. The fact that you have to keep referring to the 2021 Giro should tell you enough. Not only are you ignoring everything that went wrong back then (i assumed everybody by now understood why using the Giro as a reference is not the best idea), but you also ignore the major difference between this Vuelta, with the hardest stages being over after the second week, while the Giro had the toughest stages still to come starting end of week 2.

 

[SHAD0W93]

We are guessing - that includes you. He is yet to finish a grand tour and he was popular with the media in last years Giro until the wheels fell off in the 3rd week. Hopefully he proves the doubters wrong. But I am quite confident Roglic will continue to strengthen. And we also know Jumbo has a strong team should Roglic need it.

Ps - Cadel Evans dragged what was left of the peloton on stage 18 to 2,600+ metres in the 2011 TdF - and didn’t lose time to Andy the following day to AdH before demolishing him in the stage 20 TT. If you are strong enough dragging other riders does not matter.

The key word you used is dragged. Roglic got to sit on and recover while Quickstep rode tempo. Roglic then attacked in his patented last km sprint he’s done to everyone. Roglic didn’t ride Evenepoel off his wheel. Evenepoel unlike Evans has also been leading the climbs every stage. Roglic didn’t have it today and the team screwed up their team strength, only thing Romgic had over Evenepoel is the intelligence to recover and take time at the end. Everyone keeps harping on Evenepoel’s bad last week of the Giro when there have been many, many riders who have had terrible GT placements and suddenly finish top 10 or higher. Both riders in my opinion have exceeded everyone’s expectations.

 

[Cookster15]

Both riders in my opinion have exceeded everyone’s expectations.

I agree on this. I still think Roglic is improving.

On Evans 2011 he didn’t have any climbers in his team unlike these two. Evans saved energy on flat stages thanks to his team. In the mountains he had to use his experience to know who to follow and when. Plus of course he had the legs.

Remco still has to deliver and sky high VO2 max lab tests are a poor indicator of 3rd week grand tour outcomes at this level.

 

[BR2]

I'm sure it's going to be Remco, but if not, it's Mas. However all my predictions have been wrong lately, so...

 

[SHAD0W93]

I agree on this. I still think Roglic is improving.

On Evans 2011 he didn’t have any climbers in his team unlike these two. Evans saved energy on flat stages thanks to his team. In the mountains he had to use his experience to know who to follow and when. Plus of course he had the legs.

Remco still has to deliver and sky high VO2 max lab tests are a poor indicator of 3rd week grand tour outcomes at this level.

but Evans was also helped by Europcar wanting to keep Voeckler in yellow and high on GC on top of the Schlecks realizing too late Evans is the main problem, not Contador.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Evenepoel lost half of his lead in the weekend, but he still has a good cushion. The climbs from Tuesday to Friday aren't so tough, so he should be able to keep his lead, or at worst lose a handful of seconds.

The decisive stage will be on Saturday. The danger will be to get isolated and having to lead on the flat. It might be a good idea to send Vervaeke up the road again and let him wait after the penultimate climb, to put Evenepoel out of the wind in the valley before the Navacerrada.

This race is far from over, but the GC top 3 might just stay the way it is.

 

[dazaau]

First time I have voted for Remco. The final week is light on, there are few surprises left and his form remains strong.

 

[Cookster15]

but Evans was also helped by Europcar wanting to keep Voeckler in yellow and high on GC on top of the Schlecks realizing too late Evans is the main problem, not Contador.

Evans was not helped much if at all by Europcar on the mountains. On the flats Evans team did most of the work.

On that Galibier stage Europcar briefly went to the front but Cadel had to take back control seeing they couldn’t hold the pace. Then Evans had to deliver the following day when both Andy and Contador ganged up in him and still have the legs to deliver in the TT, which he did. My point is despite this he could still be strong and not lose time. This was the excuse given by Logic for Remco losing 15 seconds, so I am merely countering this with an example. Plus 15 seconds is actually quite a lot. Pretty sure Remco would have preferred to lose less if he could.

 

[Scarponi]

Shame there isn’t one epic three climb stage left

 

[SHAD0W93]

Evans was not helped much if at all by Europcar on the mountains. On the flats Evans team did most of the work.

On that Galibier stage Europcar briefly went to the front but Cadel had to take back control seeing they couldn’t hold the pace. Then Evans had to deliver the following day when both Andy and Contador ganged up in him and still have the legs to deliver in the TT, which he did. My point is despite this he could still be strong and not lose time. This was the excuse given by Logic for Remco losing 15 seconds, so I am merely countering this with an example. Plus 15 seconds is actually quite a lot. Pretty sure Remco would have preferred to lose less if he could.

We’re talking about different things and points of the race and what had been highlighted previously. Galibier was on stage 18 and week 3 is when Evans started doing more work. The overall post and consensus is Evenepoel and Quickstep have done the vast majority of the work since the Vuelta started. Evans and BMC didn’t have to do that because Europcar was helping them to keep Voeckler up front. You referencing Evans and the work he did week 3 when at this point they’re at different stages of the race isn’t comparable to Evenepoel and Quickstep doing the vast majority of work.

 

[houtdffan]

the only danger stage for Remco is stage 20 on Saturday

The summit finishes prior are just not hard enough to gain the time Rog needs

 

[gregrowlerson]

the only danger stage for Remco is stage 20 on Saturday

The summit finishes prior are just not hard enough to gain the time Rog needs

Why isn't stage 18 potentially dangerous?

Profile looks perfect for an attack on the penultimate climb some 45-50 kms from the finish. Especially with stage 19 being short (therefore not necessarily discouraging attacks on stage 18) and more for the breakaway probably.

 

[houtdffan]

Why isn't stage 18 potentially dangerous?

Profile looks perfect for an attack on the penultimate climb some 45-50 kms from the finish. Especially with stage 19 being short (therefore not necessarily discouraging attacks on stage 18) and more for the breakaway probably.

Remco is not getting dropped on a 13.5km climb at 5.0% gradient

 

[dercuforever]

We are guessing - that includes you. He is yet to finish a grand tour and he was popular with the media in last years Giro until the wheels fell off in the 3rd week. Hopefully he proves the doubters wrong. But I am quite confident Roglic will continue to strengthen. And we also know Jumbo has a strong team should Roglic need it.

Ps - Cadel Evans dragged what was left of the peloton on stage 18 to 2,600+ metres in the 2011 TdF - and didn’t lose time to Andy the following day to AdH before demolishing him in the stage 20 TT. If you are strong enough dragging other riders does not matter.

If you are strong enough AND the slope is >8%. Yesterday, being dragged was quite beneficial : Evenepoel produced more w/kg than Roglic.

In 2011 Cadel mostly dragged dead wood. At that point only Andy was stronger that him in a climb, and after doing such a solo it's not surprising that the next day Andy couldn't do much.
The level was quite low : 42min AdH.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I think Remco will win this Vuelta, now. He only lost 15 seconds on Sierra Nevada…

Primoz and Mas will probably not be able to win the GC. The third week offers surprisingly easy stages. I had in mind that this third week would be very hard, and then yesterday I checked the stages from tomorrow until Saturday: these are all quite easy stages for a third week of the Vuelta. I was shocked, and angry at myself, because I completely misjudged them in recent weeks. Only yesterday I learned that there now only are six easy to medium hard stages to come.

Remco will face a new situation, leader coming into the third week of a GT. The terrain, however, will now enable him to keep Red until the finish line of the final stage. He survived the hardest stages, and now it‘s too late for Primoz and Mas to go for the Red Jersey. Remco also fully will deserve this Vuelta victory.

LBL and Vuelta 2022: his palmares now will include victories in these two super important competitions, and one can only be happy for him… The guy has been through this terrible fall from the Italian bridge - he could have died, or sit in a wheelchair today. God (or fate, if you prefer) decided otherwise, and so now he‘s back on top.

 

[Volderke]

I”ll wait until we have a start list on Tuesday morning.

 

[BR2]

I”ll wait until we have a start list on Tuesday morning.

O'Connor will win this race after all.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Remco is now the favorite. I was expecting him to loose a minute but >1.5 minutes is too much for Roglic who also must be getting third week fatigue

 

[Ilmaestro99]

@Bonimenier the only question is what stage will Superman and O'connor do a Formigal/Fuente De and go 1-2 on GC

 

[BigCoward]

Shame there isn’t one epic three climb stage left

I can't tell if you are being serious? Epic = 3 climbs?

 

[Scarponi]

I can't tell if you are being serious? Epic = 3 climbs?

Well three ESP climbs.

 

[ontheroad]

I think both Evenepoel and Roglic showed signs of weakness yesterday.

Evenepoel watched as Roglic both initially got momentarily distanced by his doms and then subsequently had to pull off the front and draft at the back of the lead GC group. If Evenepoel had confidence in his ability he would have upped the tempo to try and drop Roglic but he didn't have the legs for it. Its not like he was riding a super hard tempo since both Ayuso in behind and Arrensman out in front were effectively climbing at the same pace.

On the other hand the big Jumbo move at the bottom of the climb was a failed mission due to Roglic not having the legs. He knew he needed to take close to a minute yesterday yet waited until the last possible minute before attacking. That suggests to me that he was afraid that he would blow up altogether had he moved earlier. So in the circumstances I think both riders will be satisfied with the outcome. But Evenepoel moreso given the time cushion he already has.

Evenepoel is firmly in the driving seat now after getting through the weekend. Looking at the remaining stage profiles, I simply can't see where Roglic will take the necessary time to turn around that deficit but then again stranger things have happened.

 

[Sciatic]

Since there isn’t a separate rest day thread, I will use this venue to post my annual lament. It’s outrageous that the Vuelta, Giro, and ocassionally even the Tour have rest days on U.S. summer national holidays. Can’t they have rest days on Tuesdays sometimes ? And these (Memorial Day and Labor Day) are not just ANY holidays—these are our lazy summer holidays, with no big morning obligations (cooking Turkey etc) or traveling afar to see family like for Christmas or Thanksgiving. And we’re perhaps not hung over like on New z year’s morning. They are the perfect time to have morning coffee and leisurely watch a GT stage, and maybe even the post-race coverage. It’s heinous disregard for the U.S. cycling fans—like all 57 of us