Those gaps are too small to have a major influence.
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Yeah, and I don't think any of these 8 guys will be ahead after the TT. Maybe if the gap was a few minutes bigger someone like Kuss would be a serious threat, but now I don't really see it. The best he can hope for is to be in about the same time as the favourites after the TT.I think you're looking at the stage results from yesterday, not at the GC situation?
In GC, Remco is the first of the 'favorites' in 9th spot but yes that's still 8 guys ahead of them.
I can see Kuss still ahead after the TT.Yeah, and I don't think any of these 8 guys will be ahead after the TT. Maybe if the gap was a few minutes bigger someone like Kuss would be a serious threat, but now I don't really see it. The best he can hope for is to be in about the same time as the favourites after the TT.
|YEAR||WINNER||WINNER WITHOUT TT|
|2022||EVENEPOEL Remco||MAS Enric|
|2020||ROGLIČ Primož||CARAPAZ Richard|
|2015||ARU Fabio||RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim|
|2010||NIBALI Vincenzo||RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim|
|2003||HERAS Roberto||CÁRDENAS Félix Rafael|
|2002||GONZÁLEZ Aitor||HERAS Roberto|
|2001||CASERO Ángel Luis||SEVILLA Óscar|
|1999||ULLRICH Jan||JIMÉNEZ José María|
|1998||OLANO Abraham||JIMÉNEZ José María|
|1991||MAURI Melchor||LEJARRETA Marino|
|1990||GIOVANNETTI Marco||RUÍZ CABESTANY Pello|
|1989||DELGADO Pedro||PARRA Fabio Enrique|
|1987||HERRERA Luis Alberto||DIETZEN Reimund|
|1981||BATTAGLIN Giovanni||BELDA Vicente|
|1976||PESARRODONA José||LÓPEZ Vicente|
|1975||TAMAMES Augustín||PERURENA Domingo|
|1971||BRACKE Ferdinand||OCAÑA Luis|
|1970||OCAÑA Luis||TAMAMES Augustín|
|1967||JANSSEN Jan||DUCASSE Jean-Pierre|
|1966||GABICA Francisco||HAAST Cees|
|1964||POULIDOR Raymond||OTAÑO Luis|
|1963||ANQUETIL Jacques||MALIEPAARD Bas|
|1959||SUAREZ Antonio||SEGU José|
|1941||BERRENDERO Julián||TRUEBA Fermín|
Important to note that the stat also includes TTTs. If you only ignore the ITT last year, for example, Evenepoel still wins.Per PCS
Winners of La Vuelta Ciclista a España excluding TTs.
YEAR WINNER WINNER WITHOUT TT 2022 EVENEPOEL Remco MAS Enric 2020 ROGLIČ Primož CARAPAZ Richard 2015 ARU Fabio RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim 2010 NIBALI Vincenzo RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim 2003 HERAS Roberto CÁRDENAS Félix Rafael 2002 GONZÁLEZ Aitor HERAS Roberto 2001 CASERO Ángel Luis SEVILLA Óscar 1999 ULLRICH Jan JIMÉNEZ José María 1998 OLANO Abraham JIMÉNEZ José María 1991 MAURI Melchor LEJARRETA Marino 1990 GIOVANNETTI Marco RUÍZ CABESTANY Pello 1989 DELGADO Pedro PARRA Fabio Enrique 1987 HERRERA Luis Alberto DIETZEN Reimund 1981 BATTAGLIN Giovanni BELDA Vicente 1976 PESARRODONA José LÓPEZ Vicente 1975 TAMAMES Augustín PERURENA Domingo 1971 BRACKE Ferdinand OCAÑA Luis 1970 OCAÑA Luis TAMAMES Augustín 1967 JANSSEN Jan DUCASSE Jean-Pierre 1966 GABICA Francisco HAAST Cees 1964 POULIDOR Raymond OTAÑO Luis 1963 ANQUETIL Jacques MALIEPAARD Bas 1959 SUAREZ Antonio SEGU José 1941 BERRENDERO Julián TRUEBA Fermín
The GC situation is very interesting indeed. I mean if it was Roglic instead of Kuss and Ayuso instead of Soler then it would be clearer. JV's and UAE's best GC guys are less proven than their nominal leaders. JV has a lot to think about: are they completely confident in Kuss and will they ride defensively for some time? Or will they attack Remco (likely with Primoz, maybe with Vinge) making a full-gas race and risking Kuss' position for a possible Rogla's gain?
I think its safe to say Kuss is no Voeckler or Alaphilippe. Neither of them were genuine climbers. We shouldn't forget Kuss did big damage on Col de la Loze in the 2020 TdF.I only hope it doesn't end dramatically for Kuss, i.e. I don't want any drama or heartbreak.
His current 'adventure' sort of reminds me of Voeckler in 2011 & Alaphilippe in the 2019 Tour, i.e. both went far & above what was expected & neither ended well (off the podium).
Right now he's climbing really well & seems mentally dialled in (he was super fast onto Evenepoel's wheel today). But in these types of scenarios where a rider overperforms expectations in GC there often that one stage when everything goes completely to sh*t.
I think its safe to say Kuss is no Voeckler or Alaphilippe. Neither of them were genuine climbers. We shouldn't forget Kuss did big damage on Col de la Loze in the 2020 TdF.
I agree it’s likely between Rog and Remco. Just saying it’s strange Kuss isn’t in the poll when he is clearly a better chance than others listed.I still think Kuss is a massive decoy & he's doing the best he can in his situation.
I think Roglič is Jumbo's number one guy & their behavior sort of shows this (Vingegaard is on the brink of falling behind IMO). I also think Evenepoel & Quick-Step know this as well. The GC race will naturally 'unpack itself', i.e. it'll explode & the two best riders in the race will fight it out for the win.
That's Rog & Evenepoel IMO. Kuss has super performances in isolation (Loze & Angliru 2020, or even Monte Bondone in the Giro 2023), but there's always the other stages where he drops, even when he doesn't mean to (like the Loze/Courchevel stage in the last TdF).
Sepp Kuss should be in the poll? I'm sticking with Roglic beating Remco.
But this is a very interesting Vuelta so far and probably the most hotly contested in a long time. Also keen to see how Ayuso and Almeida fare when we get to the big mountains.
The thread was posted before the Vuelta started so naturally Kuss wasn’t on anyone’s mind to win.I agree it’s likely between Rog and Remco. Just saying it’s strange Kuss isn’t in the poll when he is clearly a better chance than others listed.