Who will win the 2023 Vuelta a España

[Netserk]

Those gaps are too small to have a major influence.

 

[theyoungest]

I think you're looking at the stage results from yesterday, not at the GC situation?

In GC, Remco is the first of the 'favorites' in 9th spot but yes that's still 8 guys ahead of them.

Yeah, and I don't think any of these 8 guys will be ahead after the TT. Maybe if the gap was a few minutes bigger someone like Kuss would be a serious threat, but now I don't really see it. The best he can hope for is to be in about the same time as the favourites after the TT.

 

[rghysens]

Yeah, and I don't think any of these 8 guys will be ahead after the TT. Maybe if the gap was a few minutes bigger someone like Kuss would be a serious threat, but now I don't really see it. The best he can hope for is to be in about the same time as the favourites after the TT.

I can see Kuss still ahead after the TT.

 

[Big Doopie]

I can see Kuss still ahead after the TT.

kind of a perfect scenario for remco.

vingo and rog cannot move.

 

[ice&fire]

I can see Kuss still ahead after the TT.

I can see 3rd Jumbo leader defeated in the TT by 3rd UAE leader

 

[Blanco]

Primoz Roglic of course..

 

[SHAD0W93]

Per PCS

Winners of La Vuelta Ciclista a España excluding TTs.

YEAR	WINNER	WINNER WITHOUT TT
2022	EVENEPOEL Remco	MAS Enric
2020	ROGLIČ Primož	CARAPAZ Richard
2015	ARU Fabio	RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim
2010	NIBALI Vincenzo	RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim
2003	HERAS Roberto	CÁRDENAS Félix Rafael
2002	GONZÁLEZ Aitor	HERAS Roberto
2001	CASERO Ángel Luis	SEVILLA Óscar
1999	ULLRICH Jan	JIMÉNEZ José María
1998	OLANO Abraham	JIMÉNEZ José María
1991	MAURI Melchor	LEJARRETA Marino
1990	GIOVANNETTI Marco	RUÍZ CABESTANY Pello
1989	DELGADO Pedro	PARRA Fabio Enrique
1987	HERRERA Luis Alberto	DIETZEN Reimund
1981	BATTAGLIN Giovanni	BELDA Vicente
1976	PESARRODONA José	LÓPEZ Vicente
1975	TAMAMES Augustín	PERURENA Domingo
1971	BRACKE Ferdinand	OCAÑA Luis
1970	OCAÑA Luis	TAMAMES Augustín
1967	JANSSEN Jan	DUCASSE Jean-Pierre
1966	GABICA Francisco	HAAST Cees
1964	POULIDOR Raymond	OTAÑO Luis
1963	ANQUETIL Jacques	MALIEPAARD Bas
1959	SUAREZ Antonio	SEGU José
1941	BERRENDERO Julián	TRUEBA Fermín

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Per PCS

Winners of La Vuelta Ciclista a España excluding TTs.

YEAR	WINNER	WINNER WITHOUT TT
2022	EVENEPOEL Remco	MAS Enric
2020	ROGLIČ Primož	CARAPAZ Richard
2015	ARU Fabio	RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim
2010	NIBALI Vincenzo	RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim
2003	HERAS Roberto	CÁRDENAS Félix Rafael
2002	GONZÁLEZ Aitor	HERAS Roberto
2001	CASERO Ángel Luis	SEVILLA Óscar
1999	ULLRICH Jan	JIMÉNEZ José María
1998	OLANO Abraham	JIMÉNEZ José María
1991	MAURI Melchor	LEJARRETA Marino
1990	GIOVANNETTI Marco	RUÍZ CABESTANY Pello
1989	DELGADO Pedro	PARRA Fabio Enrique
1987	HERRERA Luis Alberto	DIETZEN Reimund
1981	BATTAGLIN Giovanni	BELDA Vicente
1976	PESARRODONA José	LÓPEZ Vicente
1975	TAMAMES Augustín	PERURENA Domingo
1971	BRACKE Ferdinand	OCAÑA Luis
1970	OCAÑA Luis	TAMAMES Augustín
1967	JANSSEN Jan	DUCASSE Jean-Pierre
1966	GABICA Francisco	HAAST Cees
1964	POULIDOR Raymond	OTAÑO Luis
1963	ANQUETIL Jacques	MALIEPAARD Bas
1959	SUAREZ Antonio	SEGU José
1941	BERRENDERO Julián	TRUEBA Fermín

Important to note that the stat also includes TTTs. If you only ignore the ITT last year, for example, Evenepoel still wins.

 

[Andy schleck]

I'm not gonna change my "predictions". I still believe ayuso will win the vuelta if Vingegaard don't find his best shape.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

The helicopter.

 

[Cookster15]

Sepp Kuss should be in the poll? I'm sticking with Roglic beating Remco.

But this is a very interesting Vuelta so far and probably the most hotly contested in a long time. Also keen to see how Ayuso and Almeida fare when we get to the big mountains.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The GC situation is very interesting indeed. I mean if it was Roglic instead of Kuss and Ayuso instead of Soler then it would be clearer. JV's and UAE's best GC guys are less proven than their nominal leaders. JV has a lot to think about: are they completely confident in Kuss and will they ride defensively for some time? Or will they attack Remco (likely with Primoz, maybe with Vinge) making a full-gas race and risking Kuss' position for a possible Rogla's gain?

 

[Rackham]

The GC situation is very interesting indeed. I mean if it was Roglic instead of Kuss and Ayuso instead of Soler then it would be clearer. JV's and UAE's best GC guys are less proven than their nominal leaders. JV has a lot to think about: are they completely confident in Kuss and will they ride defensively for some time? Or will they attack Remco (likely with Primoz, maybe with Vinge) making a full-gas race and risking Kuss' position for a possible Rogla's gain?

I only hope it doesn't end dramatically for Kuss, i.e. I don't want any drama or heartbreak.

His current 'adventure' sort of reminds me of Voeckler in 2011 & Alaphilippe in the 2019 Tour, i.e. both went far & above what was expected & neither ended well (off the podium).

Right now he's climbing really well & seems mentally dialled in (he was super fast onto Evenepoel's wheel today). But in these types of scenarios where a rider overperforms expectations in GC there often that one stage when everything goes completely to sh*t.

 

[Cookster15]

I only hope it doesn't end dramatically for Kuss, i.e. I don't want any drama or heartbreak.

His current 'adventure' sort of reminds me of Voeckler in 2011 & Alaphilippe in the 2019 Tour, i.e. both went far & above what was expected & neither ended well (off the podium).

Right now he's climbing really well & seems mentally dialled in (he was super fast onto Evenepoel's wheel today). But in these types of scenarios where a rider overperforms expectations in GC there often that one stage when everything goes completely to sh*t.

I think its safe to say Kuss is no Voeckler or Alaphilippe. Neither of them were genuine climbers. We shouldn't forget Kuss did big damage on Col de la Loze in the 2020 TdF.

 

[Rackham]

I think its safe to say Kuss is no Voeckler or Alaphilippe. Neither of them were genuine climbers. We shouldn't forget Kuss did big damage on Col de la Loze in the 2020 TdF.

I still think Kuss is a massive decoy & he's doing the best he can in his situation.

I think Roglič is Jumbo's number one guy & their behavior sort of shows this (Vingegaard is on the brink of falling behind IMO). I also think Evenepoel & Quick-Step know this as well. The GC race will naturally 'unpack itself', i.e. it'll explode & the two best riders in the race will fight it out for the win.

That's Rog & Evenepoel IMO. Kuss has super performances in isolation (Loze & Angliru 2020, or even Monte Bondone in the Giro 2023), but there's always the other stages where he drops, even when he doesn't mean to (like the Loze/Courchevel stage in the last TdF).

 

[Bonimenier]

After today it's even more clear that my prerace pick is going to win this Vuelta. On a stage with only 1 relative easy climb Thomas managed to take over 5 minutes on the other favourites. Imagine what he can do on Friday and Saturday when the real climbing begins.

 

[Cookster15]

I still think Kuss is a massive decoy & he's doing the best he can in his situation.

I think Roglič is Jumbo's number one guy & their behavior sort of shows this (Vingegaard is on the brink of falling behind IMO). I also think Evenepoel & Quick-Step know this as well. The GC race will naturally 'unpack itself', i.e. it'll explode & the two best riders in the race will fight it out for the win.

That's Rog & Evenepoel IMO. Kuss has super performances in isolation (Loze & Angliru 2020, or even Monte Bondone in the Giro 2023), but there's always the other stages where he drops, even when he doesn't mean to (like the Loze/Courchevel stage in the last TdF).

I agree it’s likely between Rog and Remco. Just saying it’s strange Kuss isn’t in the poll when he is clearly a better chance than others listed.

 

[Nick2413]

Vingegaard has been clearly a step behind so far, but they’re now entering his favored territory, he said he feels he’s improving, and the first half of the race was never going to be his ideal stomping grounds. Tourmalet should answer some questions for him.

 

[nightowl]

This week could really turn the GC battle on its head. Stages 13 and 14 are completely unlike anything we’ve had so far, and should favour Vingegaard - as well as the UAE duo of Ayuso and Almeida - much more than the first week or so, which was prime Roglic territory. Remco is a bit of an unknown quantity on these types of stages and is a wildcard - he could do something crazy or he could struggle.

 

[ManicJack]

His current 'adventure' sort of reminds me of Voeckler in 2011 & Alaphilippe in the 2019 Tour, i.e. both went far & above what was expected & neither ended well (off the podium).

How?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Sepp Kuss should be in the poll? I'm sticking with Roglic beating Remco.

But this is a very interesting Vuelta so far and probably the most hotly contested in a long time. Also keen to see how Ayuso and Almeida fare when we get to the big mountains.

I agree it’s likely between Rog and Remco. Just saying it’s strange Kuss isn’t in the poll when he is clearly a better chance than others listed.

The thread was posted before the Vuelta started so naturally Kuss wasn’t on anyone’s mind to win.

 

[dazaau]

It is time for the organisers to rescue the vuelta.

The Angliru needs to be changed, due to safety issues or any excuse available, into a mountain TT. only then will we actually see some racing

 

[Miss Violet Smith]

Almeida voters who are you?

“Faithless is he that says farewell when the road darkens.” J.R.R. Tolkien.

If you expect me to be a realist on weekends, mmmm, no.

 

[Netserk]

Vingo and Roglic will guide Sepp Kuss to Vuelta victory.

Damn.

Best prediction ever on the forum?

 

[Netserk]

Plot twist: Kuss rode Giro and Tour as practice sessions to peak at the Vuelta. Primoz and Jonas will make history as the best ever pair of climbing domestiques!

Vuelta a España 2023: The Power of Memes.