Who will win the 2023 Vuelta a España

[Gigs_98]

With less than a week to go until the start and the final preparation race finished, who are you expecting to win? Will Vingegaard get the double? Will Remco silence his doubters? Will Primoz raise his hands and if yes why? Or will Ayuso annoy the sh*t out of Red Rick? Discuss!

 

[Pinot's goat]

Carapaz is not riding.

 

[Netserk]

The podium will be:

1st: Rogla
2nd: Vingegaard
3rd: Evenepoel

 

[Gigs_98]

Carapaz is not riding.

Ah I missed that. I basically just copied the 9 riders with the best odds to win and they seemingly hadn't updated their numbers. Is there any way to change the poll without completely deleting it?

 

[Bolder]

Head says Jonas, heart says Primoz.

 

[topcat]

I’m going to risk it all, go out on a limb and predict that someone from Team Jumbo will win. After all, No risk, no glory. (Can a mod ban that expression and the word stomp?)

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's a really bad route for Evenepoel, against a field he would have struggled to beat even on last year's route, and with form that seems just a tad less strong than last year's. Depending on the route of the latter, this might actually be a taller order for him than next year's Tour will be. If he does actually win this or come close, it's definitely time to start talking about a future Tour win as an expectation rather than a possibility, but I don't think he will.

As for Jumbo, Vingegaard should be a bit weaker than at the Tour, but he has room to slide compared to that level. I still expect him to assert his status as the team leader on Javalambre - Roglic will be good, but not good enough. And once he's in the lead, he basically never gets toppled. Hard not to see him as the biggest favourite here, and tbh I think the odds of a great race would be better if he wasn't here.

Ayuso, assuming he's fully recovered from the Ordizia crash, looks ready for the next big step. I think he'll give Vingegaard more trouble than anyone else on the climbs, but it's too early to expect him to match him blow for blow all day, every day for three straight weeks. Would be disappointed if he doesn't make the podium, though.

Thomas... I just can't see it. Let's also not forget he's never done two GT GCs in the same year.

Everyone else listed has the same chances of winning, and that includes Carapaz. Mas will need to be at his very best to stand a chance of another podium and the signs aren't exactly great, the rest can't hope for more than a top-5 here.

So I'll go with:
1. Vingegaard
2. Ayuso
3. Roglic

 

[Red Rick]

With less than a week to go until the start and the final preparation race finished, who are you expecting to win? Will Vingegaard get the double? Will Remco silence his doubters? Will Primoz raise his hands and if yes why? Or will Ayuso annoy the sh*t out of Red Rick? Discuss!

Or?

Are you underestimating my ability to see my guy win and still be annoyed regardless?

 

[topcat]

Vingo fans would have liked Vingo to win the tour by more than 7 mins 29 secs because it didn’t completely reveal his superiority.
Roglic fans wanted Rog to win the Giro by less than 14 secs so he could save energy for the Vuelta-Emilia double.

 

[Red Rick]

It's a really bad route for Evenepoel, against a field he would have struggled to beat even on last year's route, and with form that seems just a tad less strong than last year's. Depending on the route of the latter, this might actually be a taller order for him than next year's Tour will be. If he does actually win this or come close, it's definitely time to start talking about a future Tour win as an expectation rather than a possibility, but I don't think he will.

As for Jumbo, Vingegaard should be a bit weaker than at the Tour, but he has room to slide compared to that level. I still expect him to assert his status as the team leader on Javalambre - Roglic will be good, but not good enough. And once he's in the lead, he basically never gets toppled. Hard not to see him as the biggest favourite here, and tbh I think the odds of a great race would be better if he wasn't here.

Ayuso, assuming he's fully recovered from the Ordizia crash, looks ready for the next big step. I think he'll give Vingegaard more trouble than anyone else on the climbs, but it's too early to expect him to match him blow for blow all day, every day for three straight weeks. Would be disappointed if he doesn't make the podium, though.

Thomas... I just can't see it. Let's also not forget he's never done two GT GCs in the same year.

Everyone else listed has the same chances of winning, and that includes Carapaz. Mas will need to be at his very best to stand a chance of another podium and the signs aren't exactly great, the rest can't hope for more than a top-5 here.

So I'll go with:
1. Vingegaard
2. Ayuso
3. Roglic

Evenepoel has an easier path to victory here than in the Tour next year, simply because this Vuelta has a chance of Vingegaard not being at Tour level, and Roglic probably not being Pogacars Tour level, which is a much bigger factor than the route IMO. He should be at least the level of last year IMO. Don't think there's a very strong reason to believe he'll be worse, and frankly if he's worse than last year he's gonna get massacred.

Vingegaard just has the question what level he shows up at. He's the favorite for me in most scenarios, because he's got the ability to make the biggest gain in 1 or 2 days. Roglic should be the best he's been since at least the 2021 Vuelta, but we still don't know how much better he can be than what he's previously shown this year.

Thomas I actually do expect to put in a respectable effort.

Ayuso is just whatever. Needs to gain like 3 levels in a season of injury to be in contention. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Ulle97]

The route is very tough indeed but I don't think every one of those MTFs will be ridden full gas. On some of them we might see a group of 8 finish in the same time or just small gaps.

Can I ask the more science savvy members here about the watts per kilo factor on climbs.

Can Remco match the top dogs (Jonas, Roglic, Ayuso, Thomas etc) based off watts per kilo numbers??? What has been Remco's best watts per kilo climb and how does that stack up against Vingegaard??

 

[dazaau]

Head says Jonas, heart says Primoz.

This. And I also agree with @Devil's Elbow that it would be a better race if Jonas stayed home.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm also very curious how Jumbo will play it. IMO are making way too much of the rivalry between Roglic and Vingegaard. Ideally they can fight it out among each other, and if they can ride away together I bet they'll destroy everyone else first, but I also expect Jumbo to just use stage 3 as a testing ground.

Stage 13, 14 and 18 are also massive opportunities for Jumbo to use their far superior team to put other guys in trouble.

 

[Nick2413]

I’ll go with Roglic given Vingegaard is in uncharted territory and I rate him a tad higher than Remco in a GT mainly due to his consistency being so damn good especially in this race.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

hard to see past vingo

 

[Netserk]

I'm also very curious how Jumbo will play it. IMO are making way too much of the rivalry between Roglic and Vingegaard. Ideally they can fight it out among each other, and if they can ride away together I bet they'll destroy everyone else first, but I also expect Jumbo to just use stage 3 as a testing ground.

Stage 13, 14 and 18 are also massive opportunities for Jumbo to use their far superior team to put other guys in trouble.

I think they will be passive in the first week and just follow, then unleash Vingegaard come Tourmalet.

 

[Red Rick]

I think they will be passive in the first week and just follow, then unleash Vingegaard come Tourmalet.

I think they'll only be passive if Vingegaard feels really *** somehow. Roglic should just never be bad because he comes into the race with ideal prep.

For that reason, I think if an Evenepoel or Ayuso should hammer it if they feel good and Jumbo is just fake pacing there with 6 guys

 

[meat puppet]

If Vingo actually gets to or near Tour level, hard to see past him. Don't buy it just yet, but that's what Jumbo's performance people claim they expect.

Interesting to see how Evenepoel fares.

 

[nightowl]

If Vingegaard is really anything close to his tour form then this will be a pretty boring race GC-wise

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Going with Roglic until I see any resemblance of good form from Jonas.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[Andy schleck]

The route is very tough indeed but I don't think every one of those MTFs will be ridden full gas. On some of them we might see a group of 8 finish in the same time or just small gaps.

Can I ask the more science savvy members here about the watts per kilo factor on climbs.

Can Remco match the top dogs (Jonas, Roglic, Ayuso, Thomas etc) based off watts per kilo numbers??? What has been Remco's best watts per kilo climb and how does that stack up against Vingegaard??

It's not just about the w/kg. It's also about the w/kg that you can do in the last climb after they ride the stage full gas, it’s also about riding full gas all the GT until the third week, and then continue to be able to push his best watts.
That's the advantage that Vingegaard has to everybody.

 

[Gigs_98]

I went with Roglic, but it's close.

I can see why Vingegaard is rated very highly but I'm skeptical that winning two consecutive GTs will ever be easy. Especially when the rider seemingly didn't prepare his season with that goal in mind already. Froome couldn't do the double when he was flying all spring and dominated the Dauphine. It was in the season of his far and beyond least commanding Tour victory when he finally got it. If Vingegaard has a bit of a Froome 2012 experience and burns out towards the end of the race I certainly wouldn't be shocked. It will have been be 3 and a half months between him crushing everyone in the Dauphine and the end of the Vuelta.

Remco I rate very highly, but not highly enough for me to think he will win a race where the cards are slightly stacked against him. Firstly, I don't think his preparation has been perfect. I know he didn't ride the Tour and only half of the Giro, but his big target for this part of the season was always the worlds TT, not the Vuelta. He certainly didn't have the same focus on this race as Roglic and hasn't ridden a stage race since mid June. It's not like that's a huge issue, but I think everything would have to go perfect for him to win this race and little factors like that can easily start adding up. I know a lot of people think the route is not suiting him, but I'm not actually too sure about that. I don't think we have the sample size to conclusively say on what kind of mountain stages he performs best on. The thing about the route that might be a real problem is that for once it's a Vuelta route where you can absolutely do damage from far out. Everyone is talking about the Tourmalet but I'm looking at the Larrau a day later thinking, what on earth is Remco supposed to do there if one of the Jumbo guys attacks? He absolutely does not have the team to counter and you just cannot pull the other guy for 40 km's through a valley. If Vingegaard and Roglic are about as strong as him I think they would need to play it really stupidly to not win.

Which brings me to Roglic. I don't think he will dominate the mountain stages, he rarely does. But he is usually rock solid and this is a gt where I think rock solid can get you very far. I've talked about the doubts I have about Vingegaard and Remco, and I simply don't have similar doubts about him. The only questionmark is that if one of the other two (or Ayuso for that matter) shows a genuinely great climbing level, can he match it? I'm not sure he can, but I have enough confidence to make him my favorite.

Finally, Ayuso is a real wildcard. I just think his peaks have been so high that he becomes impossible to ignore. The competition at the Tour de Suisse wasn't that bad and while he sucked on one day, his level in the La Punt stage was so impressive that if he can sustain that for three weeks, you have to consider him winning a possibility.

The rest will have to hope for a podium at best. Enric Mas is always surprisingly strong at the Vuelta so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets on the podium yet again. Thomas was really good in the Giro and while I don't think the more explosive mountain stage with steeper climbs suit him as well as the mountain stages in the Giro, he is always a podium candidate. Anyone else on the podium would be a pretty big surprise for me but who knows. If there is one thing you can normally predict about the Vuelta it's that it's usually pretty unpredictable.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Enric mas will win with ener rubio as his lieutenant. Running amok in the mountains with remco having a tantrum and roglic unable to compute attacks.

 

[Riek s]

...

I agree with you. JV is just to strong as a team with two potential winners to not consider them the biggest favorite. Especially that both Roglic and vingegaard, as we were told, had the Vuelta in mind this year. If it had 40k itt extra I might have put Remco as a co- winner. But as things stand now, with the team strength and a TTT that offsets the ITT, it's JV to loose. ( must say that other then Roglic the team didn't make a big impression in Burgos).
I have put Roglic as the Vuelta winner. ( I do hope Remco though)