- Apr 30, 2011
- 47,112
- 29,734
- 28,180
While I also think that he has had more on his plate than optimal for a Tour-Vuelta double, I don't doubt that it's true that he planned to do this from the start of the season.
- Mar 26, 2023
- 363
- 798
- 4,480
Hoping for strong performances from Evenepoel, Almeida and Ayuso. But. Acknowledging that my imagination is limited, I can't really see Jumbo-Visma losing this.
- Feb 18, 2015
- 13,820
- 9,809
- 28,180
I didn't say he didn't plan to ride the Vuelta all along. I just don't think his shape at the Vuelta was ever a big focus in the planning of his season. I think it was always all about the Tour and if he is still in good shape a few weeks later that's a nice bonus.
- Aug 29, 2011
- 3,700
- 2,089
- 16,680
- Mar 26, 2023
- 363
- 798
- 4,480
*raises hand timidly*
Vote from the heart (bypassing the head _entirely_), but a girl can dream.
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Vingegaard was already flying in February, not sure that is ideal, remember for Froome's one he was kinda crap early season and just sort of rode around.
If he's coming into this cold and looking to ride into it by the 2nd week then the likes of Evenepoel and Ayuso need to be having a conversation before the race to try and bury him early, though it might be the other way round and he could fade by the 3rd week.
If he's coming into this cold and looking to ride into it by the 2nd week then the likes of Evenepoel and Ayuso need to be having a conversation before the race to try and bury him early, though it might be the other way round and he could fade by the 3rd week.
Folks using prior history of doing a Tour-Vuelta for context re: Vingegaard’s possible level: performance-wise Froome was the strongest rider in both the Tour and Vuelta 2016, but only lost the Vuelta because of the ambush on the (awesome) Formigal stage. On the other hand he didn’t have to go as deep in that Tour given the level of his competition.
- Aug 13, 2011
- 7,882
- 12,032
- 23,180
In this order my top three favorites are; Vingegaard, Roglic, and Evenepoel while top three dark horses are; Ayuso, Almeida, and Mas and with Bernal as just a complete wildcard flyer pick.
Who I want to win of these seven in order is; Evenepoel, Almeida, Bernal, Ayuso, Mas, Roglic, and Vingegaard. Who I think will win in order is; Vingegaard, Roglic, Evenepoel, Ayuso, Almeida, Mas, and Bernal.
Surprise for me to say but I think people are underrating Vingegaard. While yes a double attempt is uncharted territory, it was planned and he’s been hyped up to have a super recovery that is better than anyone else. He didn’t look tired at all at the start of third week and if he needed to could have destroyed everyone even more. Rejuvenated by love and the flat terrain of his homeland, I think he’s going to absolutely destroy this TTT and ITT. That would gain him sole leadership and I don’t see Roglic dropping him at all barring a meltdown, and I don’t think he can gain enough time sprinting away at the finish.
Roglic while not looking like he can hang or properly stomp the competition bar the Giro MTT has still shown to be able to hang on to the lead group and sprint away to win his stage races and gain his time. Having bonus seconds are definitely in his favor but I don’t think they’ll be enough.
Evenepoel is playing the David role against two Goliath’s who have a much better team. His chance is TJV infighting or their leaders being under par. The route can see him go on a flyer if he’s in great shape but TJV has the team to bring it back and do the same to him.
Ayuso and Almeida both have the threat of a duo leader but most likely will be a step below the top three. I think Almeida has really progressed this year while this is Ayuso’s big target and on home soil but unless something happens to the top three it’s hard seeing either climb the top step.
Mas is always stronger in the Vuelta but I think the others are just going to be better. With how random a GT can be though, he can still make the podium but a win is out of reach unless some craziness occurs.
Bernal at least according to some articles I have read seems to be coleader with Thomas. I could see him sneaking a top 10 or getting some stage wins and KoM to build off of for next year.
Who I want to win of these seven in order is; Evenepoel, Almeida, Bernal, Ayuso, Mas, Roglic, and Vingegaard. Who I think will win in order is; Vingegaard, Roglic, Evenepoel, Ayuso, Almeida, Mas, and Bernal.
Surprise for me to say but I think people are underrating Vingegaard. While yes a double attempt is uncharted territory, it was planned and he’s been hyped up to have a super recovery that is better than anyone else. He didn’t look tired at all at the start of third week and if he needed to could have destroyed everyone even more. Rejuvenated by love and the flat terrain of his homeland, I think he’s going to absolutely destroy this TTT and ITT. That would gain him sole leadership and I don’t see Roglic dropping him at all barring a meltdown, and I don’t think he can gain enough time sprinting away at the finish.
Roglic while not looking like he can hang or properly stomp the competition bar the Giro MTT has still shown to be able to hang on to the lead group and sprint away to win his stage races and gain his time. Having bonus seconds are definitely in his favor but I don’t think they’ll be enough.
Evenepoel is playing the David role against two Goliath’s who have a much better team. His chance is TJV infighting or their leaders being under par. The route can see him go on a flyer if he’s in great shape but TJV has the team to bring it back and do the same to him.
Ayuso and Almeida both have the threat of a duo leader but most likely will be a step below the top three. I think Almeida has really progressed this year while this is Ayuso’s big target and on home soil but unless something happens to the top three it’s hard seeing either climb the top step.
Mas is always stronger in the Vuelta but I think the others are just going to be better. With how random a GT can be though, he can still make the podium but a win is out of reach unless some craziness occurs.
Bernal at least according to some articles I have read seems to be coleader with Thomas. I could see him sneaking a top 10 or getting some stage wins and KoM to build off of for next year.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,905
- 44,292
- 28,180
Froome missed that break cause he was terrible that day and got found out. He got dropped hard from the chasing group in the end as well. He got dropped hard in 3 seperate mountain stages and put all of 6 seconds into Quintana in road stages on Mirador de Ezaro on stage 3.
Thomas will be flanked by 2 UAE riders on the podium in Madrid.
Okay, I take your point on the other things, but the main reason he ended up chasing that Formigal stage is because he and the entire team were’nt paying attention and let the gap go out before they got their act together.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,905
- 44,292
- 28,180
I can still mad they didn't OTL the grupetto that day, and Froome's entire team with it.
Yeah, that was beyond ridiculous, and it shaped the race after that.
- Jul 16, 2015
- 5,374
- 13,954
- 23,180
Heart says Roglič but head says this one is way, way too close to call.
The more I think about this one, the more totally open it seems. The big variable is the intra team battle at Jumbo. It's what makes the situation different compared to the Tour, i.e. where even last year Pog was such a huge rival to beat, he focalized the entire Jumbo team on that mission. Here, there's no such binding enemy. It's Rog looking for a 5th GT win versus Vingegaard looking for a Tour-Vuelta double... with Evenepoel right there in the mix (in fact he could be labelled the outright favorite himself as well).
So no, I have no idea what's going to happen. Let's just hope it doesn't get decided by crashes or whatnot (sickness), because 'on paper' it's got all the ingredients to be a bit of a classic IMO.
The more I think about this one, the more totally open it seems. The big variable is the intra team battle at Jumbo. It's what makes the situation different compared to the Tour, i.e. where even last year Pog was such a huge rival to beat, he focalized the entire Jumbo team on that mission. Here, there's no such binding enemy. It's Rog looking for a 5th GT win versus Vingegaard looking for a Tour-Vuelta double... with Evenepoel right there in the mix (in fact he could be labelled the outright favorite himself as well).
So no, I have no idea what's going to happen. Let's just hope it doesn't get decided by crashes or whatnot (sickness), because 'on paper' it's got all the ingredients to be a bit of a classic IMO.
Whoever wins the GC, one thing is already certain by now (in my opinion):
The cycling fan won‘t be the winner.
We now had it much too often, in recent times: all seemed prepared for a great race, a great battle, and then everything evaporated, and all we felt was sadness, anger and disappointment. The bigger the hopes and expectations, the bigger the disappointment.
Examples, all from 2023 season:
Remco vs Roglic at Giro. Remco gets Covid, big battle didn’t happen.
Remco vs Pog in Liege. Pog crashes, no battle.
MvdP vs Wout in Roubaix. Wout punctures after last big pave, so no battle.
And so many more examples.
Vuelta 2023 stage profiles and startlist look great. No doubt about that. Everything looks perfect (except Pog not there, OK).
It looks TOO good. This time, I will not make the same mistake again. So, this time, I will not be looking forward, in euphoria, to this race, this Vuelta. Why? The answer is clear: the next disappointment, next sad stories, will happen. Favourites crashing out, getting Covid, testing doping-positive, whatever. So no joy for me, at the moment, and I don‘t care too much who‘ll win.
Who of you guys feels the same?…
The cycling fan won‘t be the winner.
We now had it much too often, in recent times: all seemed prepared for a great race, a great battle, and then everything evaporated, and all we felt was sadness, anger and disappointment. The bigger the hopes and expectations, the bigger the disappointment.
Examples, all from 2023 season:
Remco vs Roglic at Giro. Remco gets Covid, big battle didn’t happen.
Remco vs Pog in Liege. Pog crashes, no battle.
MvdP vs Wout in Roubaix. Wout punctures after last big pave, so no battle.
And so many more examples.
Vuelta 2023 stage profiles and startlist look great. No doubt about that. Everything looks perfect (except Pog not there, OK).
It looks TOO good. This time, I will not make the same mistake again. So, this time, I will not be looking forward, in euphoria, to this race, this Vuelta. Why? The answer is clear: the next disappointment, next sad stories, will happen. Favourites crashing out, getting Covid, testing doping-positive, whatever. So no joy for me, at the moment, and I don‘t care too much who‘ll win.
Who of you guys feels the same?…
- Aug 31, 2019
- 3,503
- 6,282
- 14,180
53 minutes behind in an 118 km stage with winning time less than 3 hours. Just to OTL the grupetto wouldn't be enough, they all deserved a 12 month ban or something as well.
zlev11
BANNED
- Jan 23, 2011
- 2,734
- 3,146
- 17,180
Roglic. I think Roglic with perfect preparation is better than Vingegaard after just finishing a Grand Tour a month ago.
- Aug 29, 2011
- 3,700
- 2,089
- 16,680
I voted Remco but it's a vote of the heart. Realistically, if Jumbo doesn't sabotage themselves, Remco would need to be a lot better than both Roglic and Vingegaard to not fall to their combined efforts.
- Apr 16, 2009
- 17,599
- 6,854
- 28,180
- Jul 18, 2020
- 1,167
- 1,754
- 7,680
Tadej Pogacar. I thought the interview with the Jumbo staff that talked about how they used the 2022 data to figure out how to train for and eventually crack Pogacar at the 2023 Tour was fascinating. It was great insight in how data gets used to tweak training and performance. Maybe the Vingegaard fans are correct and he is an unbeatable machine in the high mountains over 3 weeks and no amount of data, training and adjustments can make it possible for Pog to beat Vingegaard. But I am skeptical. The more we see Vingegaard in Grand Tours- the more data his rivals get. I think Pog is too determined and too hard-working to just concede the Tour to Ving. So I think Pog might be the real winner.
But in terms of actual predictions- I don't have any. Too many variables going into this time. I am rooting for Roglic but beyond that, no idea.
But in terms of actual predictions- I don't have any. Too many variables going into this time. I am rooting for Roglic but beyond that, no idea.
- Apr 8, 2023
- 5,596
- 6,538
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- Aug 6, 2010
- 6,884
- 6,216
- 23,180
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