Who will win the 2023 Vuelta a España

[Tim Cahill]

Will be interesting to see how strong Vingegaard still is at the end of his season.

Last year after TdF, when it got to climbing, he was same level as Oscar Onley, a promising DSM climber…

Onley will have Max Poole and Bardet with him this time so it will be even tougher for Vingegaard

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Ah, OK, good point - I forgot about him…

Would be good if Froome was there… Would love to see him climbing against the other, younger, top men. So I hope we‘ll see Froome next year, doing two GTs… Giro and Tour, or Tour and Vuelta, 2024.

Just not the same, when the grand master isn‘t there…

Froome should have been allowed to ride Tour de l'Avenir.

 

[RedheadDane]

Last year after TdF, when it got to climbing, he was same level as Oscar Onley, a promising DSM climber…

So, he was onley at the same level as Oscar?

 

[noob]

Epic routes and fields can be boring as *** so the anticipation now is probably the most exciting part lol. So I'm enjoying the anticipation 🤣🤣🤣

Kelderman and Kuss should win lol. Nah but... either of them can end top 10.

I really would love it if Roglič was top notch and Jonas went back to domestique. Because it would really mean cycling is forever changed where leadership and team constellation are more fluid. I think that would be exciting. I don't mean it like Movistar UAE chaos leadership but switching places in different races would make it more varied.
Jonas and Sepp can fight it out on Angliru and🤣

I hope Mas is doing well.

Remco, Thomas, Ayuso, Almeida all dark horses. Tbh they all are. I will still get happiest if Roglic takes it.

 

[Unchained]

Ah, OK, good point - I forgot about him…

Would be good if Froome was there… Would love to see him climbing against the other, younger, top men. So I hope we‘ll see Froome next year, doing two GTs… Giro and Tour, or Tour and Vuelta, 2024.

Just not the same, when the grand master isn‘t there…

Need a resume update.. How many top 10, top 20..top 40 does Froome have this year? Froome is unqualified to zip up Remco's skinsuit..in 2023

 

[JosefK]

I picked Remco for the win to ensure that I don't put the hex on my emotional favorite, Roglič. I actually do think Remco can win. It's a great field. If this were July, I'd pick Vingo, but I suspect it will be hard for him to retain (or regain) the same impeccable form he had at the Tour. ... Of course, one of the other fine riders from the poll could surprise, which would be great.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Fun fact: the most popular pick in these pre-race polls has not gone on to win the race in any of the last 5 GTs. So Roglic is in trouble already.

The roll of (dis)honor:
Giro 2022 - most votes: Carapaz (48.6%), Hindley wasn't even listed
Tour 2022 - most votes: Pogacar (58.1%), Vingegaard came fifth behind Roglic, Vlasov and Vino at 4.3%
Vuelta 2022* - most votes: Roglic (45.1%), Evenepoel came second at 21.5%
Giro 2023 - most votes: Evenepoel (47.1%), Roglic came second at 38.6%
Tour 2023 - most votes: Pogacar (46.6%), Vingegaard came second at 44.4%

*poll on the first rest day after stage 3 because there wasn't a pre-race poll

Also, Vingegaard never being predicted the winner and only coming in second once (including this poll) tells us there's quite a bit of popularity bias in these polls.

 

[dennisdy]

I’m going to risk it all, go out on a limb and predict that someone from Team Jumbo will win. After all, No risk, no glory. (Can a mod ban that expression and the word stomp?)

I will go out on that limb even further. I predict that someone from Jumbo will be on the podium!

 

[topcat]

Fun fact: the most popular pick in these pre-race polls has not gone on to win the race in any of the last 5 GTs. So Roglic is in trouble already.

The roll of (dis)honor:
Giro 2022 - most votes: Carapaz (48.6%), Hindley wasn't even listed
Tour 2022 - most votes: Pogacar (58.1%), Vingegaard came fifth behind Roglic, Vlasov and Vino at 4.3%
Vuelta 2022* - most votes: Roglic (45.1%), Evenepoel came second at 21.5%
Giro 2023 - most votes: Evenepoel (47.1%), Roglic came second at 38.6%
Tour 2023 - most votes: Pogacar (46.6%), Vingegaard came second at 44.4%

*poll on the first rest day after stage 3 because there wasn't a pre-race poll

Also, Vingegaard never being predicted the winner and only coming in second once (including this poll) tells us there's quite a bit of popularity bias in these polls.

Yes, I voted for Roglic with this in mind.
With the team Jumbo have, it’s a lock, they couldn’t possibly lose or could they? It would be hilarious.

 

[StryderHells]

Ah, OK, good point - I forgot about him…

Would be good if Froome was there… Would love to see him climbing against the other, younger, top men. So I hope we‘ll see Froome next year, doing two GTs… Giro and Tour, or Tour and Vuelta, 2024.

Just not the same, when the grand master isn‘t there…

Climbing against the other, younger, top men?

Dropped sprinters and leadouts?

 

[IndianCyclist]

With the team SQS has why did they not replace one of the weaker guys with Merlier as it would not have made any difference to the outcome in the mountains. He would have at least given them some stage wins. If Remco the Rhino turns up, he will be impervious to any attacks but Remco the Rat will be toyed with by the Jumbo Cats.

 

[Rackham]

Yes, I voted for Roglic with this in mind.
With the team Jumbo have, it’s a lock, they couldn’t possibly lose or could they? It would be hilarious.

Of course Jumbo can lose this Vuelta.

It's not like Roglič is going to Granon himself into dust this time for Vingegaard, or Vingegaard is going to pull for Rog. Watch this space, i.e. in 7 days time the major conversation will be about the relationship on the road between Vinge & Rog, or more specifically lack thereof.

Dual captaincy was a meme at one point in pro-cycling (Movistar style) because it invariably leads to situations where two guys on the same team ride against each other. One successful counter-example (Jumbo's TdF 2022) doesn't change the fact two leaders will do battle at some point.... which can benefit a third rider who has total leadership himself.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So the Vuelta is almost underway! Let's look at the main contenders:

Vingegaard: The ultimate GT rider. Teddy's slayer. Not even a human. With the same setup as during the Tour the rest will be fighting for the second place. It's possible that they will program him as a superdom though.
Roglic: Preparing with one goal in mind, Primoz should be in optimal condition for the race. Will it be enough to grab his second GT of the year? I don't know, his own teammate could be the biggest threat actually. Internal JV dynamics should be interesting to watch.
Evenepoel: So can the defending champion climb? Remco has to prove himself again in the mountains, right? This time against JV 2-headed monster and amid transfer speculation and some disagreements with his grandfather DS. He will probably be the strongest in the TT and among the best in the mountains.

Obviously there are other guys like Mas (who will be fighting for top3 surely but usually there's at least one guy better than him). Also it'll be interesting to watch how Ayuso unleashes his potential. Is he already strong enough to fight for a GT victory? He should form a strong duo with Almeida, who will be there as well fighting for the podium. Will Thomas be able to hit the second peak of the year and fight for victory/podium again?

The Vuelta is looking very promising on paper so let's hope it will deliver in reality as well! My guess? The ski-jumper (but my head says Skeletor may slap everyone again with a wet fish).

 

[Rackham]

So the Vuelta is almost underway! Let's look at the main contenders:

Vingegaard: The ultimate GT rider. Teddy's slayer. Not even a human. With the same setup as during the Tour the rest will be fighting for the second place. It's possible that they will program him as a superdom though.
Roglic: Preparing with one goal in mind, Primoz should be in optimal condition for the race. Will it be enough to grab his second GT of the year? I don't know, his own teammate could be the biggest threat actually. Internal JV dynamics should be interesting to watch.
Evenepoel: So can the defending champion climb? Remco has to prove himself again in the mountains, right? This time against JV 2-headed monster and amid transfer speculation and some disagreements with his grandfather DS. He will probably be the strongest in the TT and among the best in the mountains.

Obviously there are other guys like Mas (who will be fighting for top3 surely but usually there's at least one guy better than him). Also it'll be interesting to watch how Ayuso unleashes his potential. Is he already strong enough to fight for a GT victory? He should form a strong duo with Almeida, who will be there as well fighting for the podium. Will Thomas be able to hit the second peak of the year and fight for victory/podium again?

The Vuelta is looking very promising on paper so let's hope it will deliver in reality as well! My guess? The ski-jumper (but my head says Skeletor may slap everyone again with a wet fish).

Good summary. If I had to choose (& not just for biased reasons either), I'd say Rog as well. He's smart, knows his limits, reads the race well & the Vuelta is tailor made for his qualities.

But I also think it's going to get a little bit ugly as well in terms of fan debates & various dramas over the next 3 weeks. The entirety of the Belgian cycling media lobby will be sharpening their knives with accusations of suckwheeling against Evenepoel's rivals, likewise the Danish contingent in Jumbo & their fans/media will jump on any hint of "lack of teamwork" from Roglič.

I keep in mind "teamwork" in these dual captaincy situations usually = "sacrifice yourself for my favorite guy". In that respect I expect zero favors from Vingegaard, even if he's a few minutes down at some point (& why should he? He's double TdF champ who has proven he can unleash unseen watts on his best days), but I totally expect there to be some pressure on Rog to work for Vingegaard, starting next Monday (Andorran MTF stage).

 

[Volderke]

There are 3 guys that can win this Vuelta: Evenepoel, Roglic, Vingegaard.

If Vingegaard has the Tour kind of shape, I can't see him losing.
Roglic / Evenepoel is a more balanced battle.

So all depends on Vingegaard.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Vingegaard. He's on form, apparently. Doesn't matter if the other favorites are in monster shape. Jonas doesn't have to be. Conventional wisdom doesn't apply to the mountain GOAT.

 

[Rob5091]

Apart from the TT's, there are a maximum 16 bonus seconds up for grabs on each stage. I don't believe bonus seconds will decide the Vuelta winner but it does seem excessive.

 

[Lequack]

Jumbo knows Vinge watts, so they must be confident he can with with ease. Just wait until the Angliru and then he can gain minutes.

 

[stekelegel]

I think this is the strongest line up (on paper) for any grand tour this year? If the tour 2023 lacked anything this year, it was some serious contenders for the top 5...

 

[Mayomaniac]

There's only Juan Ayuso!

 

[Berniece]

If Evenepoel has his Giro form, I can only see Vingegaard match that. If Vingegaard finds his TDF form, well then it doesn't matter, he'll win. If both of them are not at the top of their game the field is wide open with Roglic, Ayuso, Almeida and Thomas.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's not just about the w/kg. It's also about the w/kg that you can do in the last climb after they ride the stage full gas, it’s also about riding full gas all the GT until the third week, and then continue to be able to push his best watts.
That's the advantage that Vingegaard has to everybody.

Yup, Pogacar showed to have bazooka wattage on Vinge's level at the Tour (or even higher at times). But not in week 3 anymore.
I think a JV guy will win it. I predicted Primoz (assuming Vinge will lose some form compared to the Tour or will feel fatigue later on) but it could be Vinge's race as well.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

With both Roglic and Vingegaard on deck I don't see how Jumbo can lose this, I'll go with Rogla just because Vingo has already won a GT this year.

 

[Red Rick]

With both Roglic and Vingegaard on deck I don't see how Jumbo can lose this, I'll go with Rogla just because Vingo has already won a GT this year.

About that

 

[Ilmaestro99]

With both Roglic and Vingegaard on deck I don't see how Jumbo can lose this, I'll go with Rogla just because Vingo has already won a GT this year.

True, Giro this year dosen't count , it was a mickey mouse event won by Simon gerrans.