Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? First rest day poll.

[Le Grand Doop]

voted with my head: vingo

I would love remco to stay in the game and somehow get to the podium. the big collapse lurks in the shadows, however.

 

[topcat]

Remco is peaking for the Olympics but he's going to pick up the tour win along the way. Word.

 

[Miss Violet Smith]

My vote went for Jonas. He is better than most people think.

Agree. Also, both Vingegaard and Roglič are very good at playing to their strengths.

 

[Sciatic]

I still hope Evenepoel will win it, chances are very slim

He’s put himself in excellent position, now just to see how holds up in multiple stages of multiple HC& Cat 1 climbs.

 

[Nick2413]

That final trifecta of stages could be a real killer of hopes and dreams for Remco if he manages to escape stage 15 in good shape. But if he makes it that far anything could conceivably happen.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Think Pogacar will take it. He’s looked strong with the best team. Pog and UAE look to be trying to do the reversal to Visma with making the race as hard as possible to take advantage of Vingegaard’s compromised prep.

Vingegaard would have to improve quite a bit since he’s been fading after each hard effort but his team has been great positioning him. If he does somehow win; it’ll either be a catalyst or inspiration.

Evenepoel has looked really well but has to get through the mountains. Compared to the Vuelta last year, it’s an upside that he’s not against 3 strong riders from the same team.

Roglic has looked the weakest of the four but is still hanging on and hasn’t lost big time. If he’s able to find better form and stay close he has an outside chance.

 

[hfer07]

Jonas & Visma have perfected the "3rd week shock", and adding the gap with Poga at the moment is well under control before the big mountains showdown...

 

[movingtarget]

Pogacar would have to weaken or Vingegaard would have to improve. Even after the Giro, Pogacar still looks the stronger of the two. After watching Roglic yoyo all day yesterday plus his previous struggles on earlier stages, he needs to up his game to secure a podium spot. The third week will be interesting as all four riders will see if their Tour prep was the right choice. Of course with Vingegaard we already know the answer but he is looking better than I expected so far. With Pogacar it simply comes down to holding his Giro form or a high percentage of it for as long as possible

The last week of the Giro indicated that Pogacar was going to give the double a shake especially with Vingegaard's issues. Roglic looks very thin but it didn't seem to effect him too much in the TT. Maybe it will pay off in the mountains in the third week but he will be glad to get through yesterday without more time lost.

 

[Peter von]

This is so interesting!

Pogi as winner makes so much sense, but then again, the Giro-Tour double attempts are avoided by most GC riders for a reason.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

After thinking about it for a while: neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard as a winner makes sense!

Vingegaard: 6 weeks of rushed preparation after a serious crash and injury.
Pogacar: peaking since early spring, no form reset in between and Giro+Tour double.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Going still with Pogacar. Vingegaard is very strong, stronger than most believed he would be, but I just cannot yet believe that the effects of a significantly compromised preparation won't catch him up later in the race. If the effects of the Giro-Tour double hit Pog simultaneously, then it could open the door for someone third, but right now Pogacar looks the most likely winner.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I voted Vingegaard before the Tour, and I think he's been slightly better than I expected, and the gap between him and Pogacar on first rest day slightly smaller than I expected, so obviously I still think that Vingegaard is gonna take it.

And as much as I love Pogacar's way of riding and I hope that he never changes, I don't think he's riding very smartly this Tour. He spent way too much energy yesterday for a minimal potential gain. He's playing right into the hands of Vingegaard.

 

[Netserk]

I voted Vingegaard before the Tour, and I think he's been slightly better than I expected, and the gap between him and Pogacar on first rest day slightly smaller than I expected, so obviously I still think that Vingegaard is gonna take it.

I agree that he has been better than expected, but then it surprises me that you stated before the Tour that he'd be as good as last year instead of going for the option where he would start slow and grow during the Tour.

 

[Eclipse]

Vingegaard will just glue on to Pogi's wheel and then end it in 2 stages when Pogi falters unfortunately.

Kind of hoping for a Remco ambush to throw the cat among the pidgeons

 

[spicelab]

Still marginally leaning towards Pog but Vingegaard is just unreal.

Visma aren't strong enough to soften up Pog in the mountains like the last couple of years so Vingegaard will 100% have to do everything himself.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Landismo doing very well in the battle of mortals. He trails only his teammate because of his domestique duties!

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I agree that he has been better than expected, but then it surprises me that you stated before the Tour that he'd be as good as last year instead of going for the option where he would start slow and grow during the Tour.

Yeah, perhaps I should have taken that option, that makes sense. I guess I just meant that he will be as good as last year in his terrain which we haven't really been at yet.

 

[glassmoon]

This is so interesting!

Pogi as winner makes so much sense, but then again, the Giro-Tour double attempts are avoided by most GC riders for a reason.

Yeah and the reason being that there is someone who will contest you for the win in both GTs... this year though, Pod won Giro with literally 0 competition/opponents and with "minimal" effort. Seems like people forget about that for some reason.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yeah and the reason being that there is someone who will contest you for the win in both GTs... this year though, Pod won Giro with literally 0 competition/opponents and with "minimal" effort. Seems like people forget about that for some reason.

Pog only has one opponent when we talk about GT's. He would beat Roglic, Remco, Rodriguez, etc with a 6 minutes gap in the Giro.

 

[Peter von]

Yeah and the reason being that there is someone who will contest you for the win in both GTs... this year though, Pod won Giro with literally 0 competition/opponents and with "minimal" effort. Seems like people forget about that for some reason.

beating Geraint Thomas by 10+ mins isn't something you do on minimal effort, even if you are Pogi.

He dominated the race from start to finish and did what he wanted I would be less nervous about his third week if he had taken the foot more off the gas and just let his team control the race. I don't think it would have changed that much if Remco or Rogla had raced the Giro and finished 7 mins behind Pogi or even if they had been flying and only finished 3 or 4 mins down.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, perhaps I should have taken that option, that makes sense. I guess I just meant that he will be as good as last year in his terrain which we haven't really been at yet.

Ah, okay. That's what I hoped for before the Tour, but I was very unsure of how he would fare until then. And now whether or not he can reach his best level in the last 3 stages.

 

[shadowrider]

If Vingegaard is not fading the second half of the Tour (against all sporting and scientific insights), after his forced recovery and (too) small physical basis, then we can assume that he will become stronger and stronger. Normally, Pogacar should also fade a bit, due to his fatigue after participating and winning the Giro.
But, the same as Vingegaard. If/when Pogacar "against all sporting and scientific insights" will not fade (a bit) the last week (using the same legal scientific methods), both riders will be at the same level. Pogacar has a time advantage at the moment. So, without a breakdown of Pogacar, Vingegaard will have to attack. Maybe not once or twice, but several times. But then, Vingegaard could also run on a counter. Not being helped by his teammates (only Jorgenson not too far).
Although Evenepoel is better than expected, I don't believe he will be able to fight for GC. But he could still play a role during one stage. Helping one of the favorites (Pogacar ?) when Vingegaard fading, or by staying in the wheel (of Vingegaard, as a revenge).

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[Rob5091]

My enemy's enemy is my friend.
Visma to sit tight on Pogi and hope he pushes himself too hard and goes the same way as last year. Using Remco (and Roglic if he's able) to keep up the pace is part of a smart plan. On the other hand, Vingegaard maybe hanging on by the skin of his teeth and Visma are reduced to just following as Vingegaard can not manage anything else.
A rest day can mess things up so if there's echelons on Tuesday then guys might well suffer.

 

[Carols]

I voted for Primoz also. Yeah, he's a real longshot as it currently stands. But Pogi and Jonas could burn each other out and Evenepoel will collapse after back-to-back days in the high mountains.

EDIT: I just heard Vlasov is out. I wish him a quick recovery at the same time the loss of him means Rogla's odds are even higher