Heat is a factor, as you also pointed out in an earlier post. And given the climate trend heat waves in France are more and more likely with every passing year. Cold, rainy Tour (like Giro) aka Teddy's dream is utopia. However, 1 or 2 cold days in the mountains would definitely favor him. While I do think he bears the heat better than it's thought (he showed it during some of last year's stages i.e. on Puy de Dome) a prolonged period of hot weather is a factor, which (coupled with the Giro in his legs) can lead to fatigue later in the race.
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Heat is a factor, as you also pointed out in an earlier post. And given the climate trend heat waves in France are more and more likely with every passing year. Cold, rainy Tour (like Giro) aka Teddy's dream is utopia. However, 1 or 2 cold days in the mountains would definitely favor him. While I do think he bears the heat better than it's thought (he showed it during some of last year's stages i.e. on Puy de Dome) a prolonged period of hot weather is a factor, which (coupled with the Giro in his legs) can lead to fatigue later in the race.
Yep. In the same way a period of cold weather or rainy stages will seriously diminish Rog's chances.
I still remember the conversations about the Ventoux stage in the 2021 Tour, i.e. when Vingegaard legitimately dropped Pog. Some of us (myself included) thought Pog just let him go because there was no need to follow. But no, Vingegaard really did drop him & it just happened to coincide with the first hot day that year, if I remember correctly (his Grand-Bornand raid was of course a cold wet day).
Now don't get me wrong, i.e. I'm not saying Pog is a scrub in the heat (like you said his Puy de Dôme performance last year shows this) but there are riders in the peloton (including his rivals) who're pretty much the reverse & excel in hotter conditions. I mean the general consensus about Rog is the Vuelta suits him with its muritos but that's not the whole picture, i.e. he also absolutely excels in the hottest stages.
In regards to handling the heat it’ll be interesting if UAE change or improve anything from last year with the cooling vest immediately at the finish and dowsing Pogacar with water frequently during the stage.
Indeed.
I'm also just looking at this from a more balanced viewpoint in general, i.e. because the consensus (here & wherever online) is Pog will dominate this Tour de France.
That could very well be the case because he's obviously a formidable rider for sure, but, he's also a rider who has been dropped in each of his last 3 TdF's, i.e. with two of those (Granon & Loze) being absolutely massive cracks.
If something like that happens again he'll lose the Tour.
And jet he finished second despite those massive cracks in both of those tours. It just shows how much above the field him and Jonas were in last TDF editions.
It will be interesting to see if Giro in the legs will take its toll and if competiton will be able to capitalize in it (if it happens).
I'm curious what will be Primoz's form. There have been also opinions (mine included) that this is his best Tour shot (till the end of career), considering Vingo's problems and Pogacar's double GT effort. He wasn't convincing in the Dauphine and clearly should improve considerably. We will see, I guess.
It's for sure a good opportunity for Rogla but certainly not the last one. No need to be dramatic over that, it's a race like any other. One has to understand that Rogla only did one Tour edition in his whole career, on where he went for GC and he finished second. I am sure that now, when racing at Bora, Rogla will get a couple of proper chances and ultimately to finish higher. In the end it's stage racing and Rogla is one of the best, if not the best, stage racer in history of cycling.
I'd love for him to compete but also looking at this from the aforementioned 'balanced' view, I think he's just too inconsistent in the Tour to make any sort of accurate predication. It could go either way (& yeah his performance will be heavily influenced by race conditions like crashes & also weather conditions as well).
The first thing he needs to do is 'survive'. Then we'll see what he can do. Honestly I think he'll ride a super conservative race all the way until the end of week 3. If he's still in contention at that point it'll be a small victory in & of itself. Even stage 1 looks potentially problematic on paper, i.e. a series of cat 3 climbs towards the end of the stage where positioning will be super important (& this will naturally cause a huge amount of stress in the bunch).
So I'll revisit the Rogla hype 'if' he makes it through all these ambushes (including the gravel stage) & is in contention the morning of the Cime de la Bonette stage (on a profile like that "in contention" = within 2 minutes in GC).
Currently Pogi and UAE are just way to hyped, first cracks will start to appear at Galibier, on where UAE won't drop Bora and Pogi won't gain any significant time, if any, over Rogla. Then it will become a tad easier to discuss things like will Bora take Rogla to the Tour 2025, to defend, or if Tour 2024 was really the last one.
But you have to admit that UAE domestiques climbing in Tour de Suisse was more convincing than anything that Rogla and his team produced in June. Based on performances seen at Tour de Suisse or CdD it is hard to see any other rider than on form Vinge being able to keep up with Pogi.
If UAE won't be able to make a significant difference by the 3rd week then healthy Rogla will probably have his chance if he is on form.
I am still waiting what are Jumbo's plans for TDF as this can change the race dynamics significantly.
I think the route in Suisse was far easier than the Dauphiné though, so I wouldn't draw too many conclusions about the respective performance of the UAE riders versus Bora.
I do think though if (or more like when?) Vingegaard is announced for the Tour, it'll change everything. Namely the first stages (everything up to the Galibier stage) will be raced full gas even harder than if he wasn't there. Pog will try to drop Vingegaard immediately, I reckon.
Far easier? Wait, what? 5 consecutive mountain stages. At least, it was a little bit easier
Actually yeah it was far easier. Stage 6 was a joke.
I'll also say the entire premise of Yates & Almeida's supposed 'supremacy' over Rog entails both of them having suddenly made a substantial leap forwards since a few months ago.
Is it 'possible'? Maybe. Is it likely? I'd say no. Nicolas Fritsch (former French rider) even said on Eurosport that Yates was the 'third man' behind Pog & Vinge. I mean behave, i.e. a few dominant rides in Suisse shouldn't suddenly erase a career worth of data regarding his performances versus Rog.
I'll have to see it to believe it. Ditto Almeida (who like Ayuso gets very easily hyped).
I’m not convinced of Roglic’s form this year, his PN wasn’t good and Dauphine was concerning despite the win. If he can be his normal self he should be above Yates but he needs to improve for the Tour.
They were more convincing if we compare with the last stage of Dauphiné, where for some reason i don't understand why Roglic underperformed.
I don't think Roglic can climb at the level of Vingegaard and Pogacar, but in normal conditions he is the 3rd best climber in the world.
The previous perfomances on Dauphiné were at the same level of yates and almeida on Tour de Suisse.
What happened is that people went overhyped unconsciously because they saw some posts about Almeida doing 7 w/kg in almost 20 minutes, but is very easy to understand why that situation happened, similar situation of what happened o Lo Port (even more easy since it was just 40 km in good conditions).
Roglic or Pogacar for the win.
I think Matteo Jorgenson, save for any crahes or mechanicals will likely podium or top 5.
I think Matteo Jorgenson, save for any crahes or mechanicals will likely podium or top 5.
Roglic was very underwhelming after his first win in the Dauphiné. He seems to lack endurance.
People have often said this about Rog (for example the same was said after Tirreno last year before Catalunya).
I basically always keep in mind the cycling press (& youtubers) need something to talk about. So there's always going to be 'narratives' leading up to the Tour de France, i.e. based on conversations about the pre-Tour races (& drawing conclusions based on current form).
This will increase tenfold as soon as the Tour starts. Imagine if Evenepoel survives with the favorites until the ITT & takes yellow? Belgian media will go crazy. Imagine if Vingegaard isn't dropped? All the media will be saying "Vinge will be even better in the third week" etc.
I expect a lot of back & forth & narrative twists & turns regarding the riders & their form. Right now the narrative is about UAE's super strong domestiques, i.e. something which will either be verified when the Tour starts or completely forgotten about as soon as the real action gets underway (as is so often the case).
Jonas 20 minutes over Remco. Pogacar finishes 4th. Roglic DNF stage 1, Cavendish to beat Froome in GC.
Maybe true but I’m not going off a narrative, he’s just looked worse than past years and will need to be at his best to win. If he can stay on his bike hopefully he can make it a race.
This will be an epic battle between 4 top riders:
Juan Ayuso
Matteo Jorgenson
Mikel Landa
Alexandr Vlasov
Juan Ayuso
Matteo Jorgenson
Mikel Landa
Alexandr Vlasov
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