Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

[Nick2413]

That‘s 4 teams.

Somehow when I thought UAE/Visma/Bora/Ineos I came up with 3, time to go back to bed.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I like the new consensus that last year‘s Tour podium finisher Adam Yates is not in shape to beat 69 kg Matteo Jorgenson in a one-week race because he only beat any rider not on his team by three minutes in Suisse.

 

[Netserk]

I like the new consensus

Where?!

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Pello

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Vingegaard because if he starts I don’t see why Visma would start him if they think he can’t win.

 

[Escarabajo]

Vingegaard because if he starts I don’t see why Visma would start him if they think he can’t win.

They don't seem that confident like you said.

Visma-Lease a Bike lower ambitions for Jonas Vingegaard's participation in 2024 Tour de France

Merijn Zeeman says “competitive” rather than “fighting for yellow” is possible new benchmark

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[Nick2413]

Carapaz will obviously win the whole thing. After being left off the Olympic team he’ll be riding on pure emotion and will start to dominate when the mountains get high in week 3.

 

[Cookster15]

They don't seem that confident like you said.

Visma-Lease a Bike lower ambitions for Jonas Vingegaard's participation in 2024 Tour de France

Merijn Zeeman says “competitive” rather than “fighting for yellow” is possible new benchmark

www.cyclingnews.com

Indeed that is a revealing article. As Zeeman said:-

“It wasn’t just a broken collarbone,” he said. "We must not forget that it was a crash with a very big impact. There's also the fear of another fall. After the Dauphiné I drove on to Tignes, so I talked to him about it a lot.”

That is not the brash and confident Visma I am used to hearing. If Vingegaard understandably fears another fall then maybe skipping the Tour until his head is right is advisable.

If Vingegaard does choose to ride then I think if Jonas is competitive that is more than enough after what he has suffered. But I can understand why his fans might try to find any cause for optimism.

 

[durtyfat7]

Do you think Landa can finish top 5 or even podium if he doesn't end up playing in a domestique role through the TDF?

 

[Berniece]

Do you think Landa can finish top 5 or even podium if he doesn't end up playing in a domestique role through the TDF?

He also didn’t look that impressive at Dauphine

 

[durtyfat7]

He also didn’t look that impressive at Dauphine

It was his first race since his injuries, it's kinda normal he wasn't at his best. But he didn't ride Dauphine full gas too. We'll see.

 

[Rob5091]

Pogacar biggest enemy might well be the weather.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Pogacar biggest enemy might well be the weather.

Almost everyone’s honestly. Let me tell you, if it’s hot af outside I hate my workout and life.

 

[tobydawq]

I'm surprised that Pogacar is rated that much higher than Vingegaard. To me, they're about equal favorites to win the Tour. It's almost impossible to see anyone else winning, so perhaps we should instead discuss who's the most likely to podium, but now that everyone else has already handed out stars based on winning chances, I'll do that as well:

You didn't hear about Vingegaard's crash?

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Do you think Landa can finish top 5 or even podium if he doesn't end up playing in a domestique role through the TDF?

Not if he has to drag Remco's 16.2kg ass up into a top 5.

 

[Berniece]

It was his first race since his injuries, it's kinda normal he wasn't at his best. But he didn't ride Dauphine full gas too. We'll see.

Why couldn't he go all out? It's not like he had to ride for Evenepoel.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

We know everything now: Vingo is back. After thinking about it for a while my take is that JV were so satisfied with his anaerobic threshold test that they decided to take him to the race. UAE will want to test him early for sure and drop him but maybe it won't be that simple due to Vingo's good numbers (as probably noticed by JV).

What JV doesn't know is how he responds to a 3-week race (which will be ridden hard by UAE surely). Contrary to what many thought (i.e. Vingo starting slowly and building during the race) it may turn out to be the opposite: Vingo starting well (good power numbers and freshness) but fading afterwards.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

5 star: Pogacar
4 star: Vingegard, Adam yates
3 star: Roglic, Carlos Rodrigues , Simon Yates
2 star: Bernal, Almida, Landa, Ajuso
1 star: Gall, Carqpax, Remco, Hindley, Jorgensen, Vlasov, Mas, Derrick Gee

 

[danielovichdk2]

My prediction is that Tadej will be in yellow in the first week. Then lose it in the third week when his giro legs says "see you later".

Adam Yates won't do jack sh*t

 

[Rob5091]

WvA & Vingegaard to the Tour? Well, Visma are running out of healthy guys so they might have pushed extra hard for them to return. Would Vingegaard have gone to the Tour if Roglic was still there? We'll have to see, but if Vingegaard starts to descend like Zakarin and climb like Cavendish, then he's come back too quickly.
I'm betting on the first two stages going more then 40 km/h.

Edit- add make that 45km/h!

 

[Escarabajo]

Simon Yates reminds me of Aru in 2017. How can someone do a prep like that is beyond me.

 

[topcat]

Vingo's inclusion changes things. Now, I'm picking Remco to win.

 

[Froome]

We know everything now: Vingo is back. After thinking about it for a while my take is that JV were so satisfied with his anaerobic threshold test that they decided to take him to the race. UAE will want to test him early for sure and drop him but maybe it won't be that simple due to Vingo's good numbers (as probably noticed by JV).

What JV doesn't know is how he responds to a 3-week race (which will be ridden hard by UAE surely). Contrary to what many thought (i.e. Vingo starting slowly and building during the race) it may turn out to be the opposite: Vingo starting well (good power numbers and freshness) but fading afterwards.

Is there some news about Vingegaard today?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Is there some news about Vingegaard today?

Retirement and joining a monastery.

 

[Rackham]

One thing is for sure it's shaping up to be the most narratively convoluted pre-Tour ever in terms of predictions, IMO.

Just a small sample of some social media/forum reactions from fans & journalists reveals a pretty broad spectrum of absolute conclusions: Pog will dominate, Vinge will dominate, Pog & Vinge will have a tight battle, Vinge will start strong & then tire, Vinge will start slow & then get faster, Rog is past it, Evenepoel doesn't stand a chance, Rodriguez will get third, UAE will get 123, Yates will finish second etc. etc.

Everyone has an opinion... & no one really knows. I guess that's what makes this on paper a pretty exciting TdF.