Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

[FroomeWagon]

Implied probability to win TDF using odds from today. Numbers not too different from the poll.

Edit: I made one mistake typing the numbers in. Rodriguez has the same odds as Ayuso at 33:1 or 2.94%.

 

[AmRacer]

I got a hunch, this TdF will be epic.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Ladies and gentlemen...start memeing!

 

[SHAD0W93]

I got a hunch, this TdF will be epic.

I just don’t want a repeat of 2014 or even worse if Pog, Vinge, Roglic, and Evenepoel all crash out.

 

[ice&fire]

I got a hunch, this TdF will be epic.

The pre-race is being as epic as the "Remco vs Roglic" '23 Giro. If that's a predictor of the race epicness...

 

[Froome]

I got a hunch, this TdF will be epic.

And then some stupid crash happens in the first week, or in that stupid gravel stage.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Old cycling fans will say that what matters is the anticipation before the Tour...the real Tour happens while we speculate about what will happen in the Tour.

 

[Potomac]

I'm surprised Jorgenson isn't rated higher. He should basically be top 3 among the dudes who don't have a chance in hell

I"m guessing the bettors are mostly European, I think few Americans wager on professional cycling.
And when it comes to long shots, people bet on their countrymen before a foreigner.
Thus, fewer betting on Jorgenson and he gets longer odds.

 

[Potomac]

I got a hunch, this TdF will be epic.

My hunch is that no matter what happens we will have loads of posters here whining how boring it is and they will claim they won't watch it anymore, and then they will keep watching and posting after saying the wouldn't.

 

[Escarabajo]

Implied probability to win TDF using odds from today. Numbers not too different from the poll.

Edit: I made one mistake typing the numbers in. Rodriguez has the same odds as Ayuso at 33:1 or 2.94%.

Some people always asking for the preferred rider being low on the pecking order. But this is where the money is.
For once I really think they have it wrong with Jonas and Remco. And more Jonas than Remco. But the way they see it they probably believe a Jonas at 80% could have a better chance than the others below him. We'll see.

 

[yaco]

Simon Yates reminds me of Aru in 2017. How can someone do a prep like that is beyond me.

He did the same prep in 2023 and came 4th.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Simon Yates might've pushed for podium last year if he didn't crash on stage 8 and lose time.

Straight down from altitude after a 2 month block, been training with Adam, expect him to feature on stage 1.

 

[Rob5091]

My hunch is that no matter what happens we will have loads of posters here whining how boring it is and they will claim they won't watch it anymore, and then they will keep watching and posting after saying the wouldn't.

My hunch is the Tour is a re-run of the Giro and Teddy is elevated to the ranks of Holy Roman Emperor or Pope or some such person with infallibility. I await the Teddy icons and claims of a virgin birth. Maybe a stop at Lourdes on the parcours could conjure up a miracle or two.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Some people always asking for the preferred rider being low on the pecking order. But this is where the money is.
For once I really think they have it wrong with Jonas and Remco. And more Jonas than Remco. But the way they see it they probably believe a Jonas at 80% could have a better chance than the others below him. We'll see.

Or they think a fully fit Vingegaard has 80% chance of winning but there’s a fairly low chance of that happening.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

My hunch is the Tour is a re-run of the Giro and Teddy is elevated to the ranks of Holy Roman Emperor or Pope or some such person with infallibility. I await the Teddy icons and claims of a virgin birth. Maybe a stop at Lourdes on the parcours could conjure up a miracle or two.

I don’t think it will be that big of a domination if Vingegaard is not up to scratch. Then again Pogi has proved me wrong previously.

 

[Netserk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804074482027434061

View: https://x.com/LidlTrek/status/1804074482027434061


One of the contenders are out.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Heart says Roglic, head says Pogacar. My funny bone insists on Vingegaard and the bast*rd is usually right.

 

[Rob5091]

As it seems the Italian police busted Piccolo, I look forward to a massvie police raid on team's hotels in Florence next week - forza Carabinieri!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Still one week till the Tour starts - can't wait to it! Not gonna lie, Skeletor at the start line makes the anticipation and excitement much bigger. Otherwise, I feel, Teddy's only rival would be potential post-Giro fatigue. But now who knows?

 

[shadowrider]

It is the strongest Tour ever. The expectations are enormous. That is precisely why I fear that we will all be somewhat disappointed.
Because of a few crashes from topriders. Or because Poga appears to be in Giro form that does not weaken during the second half of the Tour. Destroying the field (boring). Or because Vingegaard turns out to be good against all the rules of medicine, riding everyone home during the second half of the Tour. Or because.....

I continue to hope for a huge battle and changing leaders in the rankings. But I have doubts.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I don't think it will be one of the big 4 for the following reasons

Pog will bonk early in the final week
Vingegaard will capitalise on it but bonk the next day
Roglic can't help himself...as sure as night follows day he will crash
Evenepoel is just too big boned and time trialing up the high mountains wont cut it

But Jumbo Visma will probably win

 

[Miha81]

Less than a week. Come on get this TDF going already

I hope this years edition won't get disappointing like the 3rd week of last year's TDF with epic battle until that point.

Let the best rider win.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Remember early Tour hype about the Big4? Well, somehow all of them made it to the start line so it's time for a big show! So how are they doing?

Pogi is doing final touches to his form in the middle of his Giro-Tour attempt.
Vingo is getting better every day after his hard crash.
Rogla is attaching pillows to his body, just in case...
Remco is making quick progress in w/kg department (reducing denominator).

 

[Froome]

Heart says Roglic, head says Pogacar. My funny bone insists on Vingegaard and the bast*rd is usually right.

And he will be right again.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Just been informed that the tour starts in 1 week not 2, no idea wtf I was thinking, even booked the wrong week off work.

Anyway it's looking a bit tetchy re: stage 4, though it's ASO so not a chance any of them throw a fit this time round.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804819513172455864