Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

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Who will win the 2024 Tour de France?

  • Total voters
    207
  • Poll closed .
FroomeWagon

FroomeWagon

Jun 15, 2021
357
625
5,480
Implied probability to win TDF using odds from today. Numbers not too different from the poll.

Edit: I made one mistake typing the numbers in. Rodriguez has the same odds as Ayuso at 33:1 or 2.94%.

odds.png
 
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Potomac

Potomac

Jan 22, 2010
4,759
5,847
21,180
Red Rick said:
I'm surprised Jorgenson isn't rated higher. He should basically be top 3 among the dudes who don't have a chance in hell
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I"m guessing the bettors are mostly European, I think few Americans wager on professional cycling.
And when it comes to long shots, people bet on their countrymen before a foreigner.
Thus, fewer betting on Jorgenson and he gets longer odds.
 
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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

Apr 16, 2009
17,600
6,854
28,180
FroomeWagon said:
Implied probability to win TDF using odds from today. Numbers not too different from the poll.

Edit: I made one mistake typing the numbers in. Rodriguez has the same odds as Ayuso at 33:1 or 2.94%.

odds.png
Click to expand...
Some people always asking for the preferred rider being low on the pecking order. But this is where the money is.
For once I really think they have it wrong with Jonas and Remco. And more Jonas than Remco. But the way they see it they probably believe a Jonas at 80% could have a better chance than the others below him. We'll see.
 
Rob5091

Rob5091

Apr 8, 2023
5,629
6,569
16,180
Potomac said:
My hunch is that no matter what happens we will have loads of posters here whining how boring it is and they will claim they won't watch it anymore, and then they will keep watching and posting after saying the wouldn't.
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My hunch is the Tour is a re-run of the Giro and Teddy is elevated to the ranks of Holy Roman Emperor or Pope or some such person with infallibility. I await the Teddy icons and claims of a virgin birth. Maybe a stop at Lourdes on the parcours could conjure up a miracle or two.:)
 
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V

VayaVayaVaya

Jun 1, 2015
2,289
3,478
17,180
Escarabajo said:
Some people always asking for the preferred rider being low on the pecking order. But this is where the money is.
For once I really think they have it wrong with Jonas and Remco. And more Jonas than Remco. But the way they see it they probably believe a Jonas at 80% could have a better chance than the others below him. We'll see.
Click to expand...
Or they think a fully fit Vingegaard has 80% chance of winning but there’s a fairly low chance of that happening.
 
Jumbo Visma Fan :)

Jumbo Visma Fan :)

Oct 13, 2021
2,570
3,317
11,180
Rob5091 said:
My hunch is the Tour is a re-run of the Giro and Teddy is elevated to the ranks of Holy Roman Emperor or Pope or some such person with infallibility. I await the Teddy icons and claims of a virgin birth. Maybe a stop at Lourdes on the parcours could conjure up a miracle or two.:)
Click to expand...
I don’t think it will be that big of a domination if Vingegaard is not up to scratch. Then again Pogi has proved me wrong previously.
 
Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
8,144
15,003
23,180
Still one week till the Tour starts - can't wait to it! Not gonna lie, Skeletor at the start line makes the anticipation and excitement much bigger. Otherwise, I feel, Teddy's only rival would be potential post-Giro fatigue. But now who knows?
 
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S

shadowrider

May 18, 2023
706
590
3,580
It is the strongest Tour ever. The expectations are enormous. That is precisely why I fear that we will all be somewhat disappointed.
Because of a few crashes from topriders. Or because Poga appears to be in Giro form that does not weaken during the second half of the Tour. Destroying the field (boring). Or because Vingegaard turns out to be good against all the rules of medicine, riding everyone home during the second half of the Tour. Or because.....

I continue to hope for a huge battle and changing leaders in the rankings. But I have doubts.
 
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A

AnotherArmChair

Mar 8, 2024
1,717
2,678
8,180
I don't think it will be one of the big 4 for the following reasons

Pog will bonk early in the final week
Vingegaard will capitalise on it but bonk the next day
Roglic can't help himself...as sure as night follows day he will crash
Evenepoel is just too big boned and time trialing up the high mountains wont cut it

But Jumbo Visma will probably win
 
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Miha81

Miha81

Jul 17, 2021
1,545
2,893
10,180
Less than a week. Come on get this TDF going already ;)

I hope this years edition won't get disappointing like the 3rd week of last year's TDF with epic battle until that point.

Let the best rider win.
 
Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
8,144
15,003
23,180
Remember early Tour hype about the Big4? Well, somehow all of them made it to the start line so it's time for a big show! So how are they doing?

Pogi is doing final touches to his form in the middle of his Giro-Tour attempt.
Vingo is getting better every day after his hard crash.
Rogla is attaching pillows to his body, just in case...
Remco is making quick progress in w/kg department (reducing denominator).
 
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