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Who will win the Giro? 16th rest day poll

Page 2 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will not lose?

  • Armirail

    Votes: 4 2.5%
  • Thomas

    Votes: 17 10.6%
  • Roglic

    Votes: 75 46.6%
  • Leknesund

    Votes: 2 1.2%
  • Caruso

    Votes: 8 5.0%
  • Remco

    Votes: 7 4.3%
  • Zzzzzz

    Votes: 15 9.3%
  • Vino/Other

    Votes: 7 4.3%
  • Almida

    Votes: 25 15.5%
  • Rubio

    Votes: 1 0.6%

  • Total voters
    161
This Giro

FwqKpErXoAIKn62

Why is there a giant schlong wearing a bandit mask who is prodding G Thomas with a stick?

He's a Primoz Leipheimer fanboy, he loves to watch paint dry and grass grow.

These are definitely the best hobbies. I fully recommend both.
 
So there will be four crucial stages in the next five. No more hiding, no more saving energy. The race will absolutely detonate on Monte Bondone, where 17 years ago Robo Basso (while smiling) made Simoni and co look like amateurs. After it there's an easier day and then a triptich of hard stages ending with a brutal TT (which will undoubtedly be won by the strongest climber with the best recovery capabilities). Rogla is the favourite and my prediction here. I do think that Almeida will turn out to be his closest rival (it doesn't have to be close though). Let's hope for great GC racing (finally!).
 
A lot of the fault for the slow and boring racing comes from the route design. When you draw up a race where attacking like crazy, being extra good in the TTs and being in great shape the first two weeks might get you a one minute gap... and then you have 4(!) stages in the last week when you can gain or lose a minute in a span of 5km... then something is wrong. Everyone knows that any time that might be gained in the first two weeks can be lost in one single climb in week three. So they decided that it is wiser to save energy for stages when the differences will be huge. Smart decision but unfortunatelly it leads to boring racing. They are doing what they think is the best way to win on a route that was presented to them.

Yes, my issue is that a team that has the fire power (Ineos, JV) should at least test the other guys in one of the stages. But they decided against it. I am assuming JVs tactic changed as soon Remco and Tao were out of the race. Because I think they believe Roglič will wipe the floor with everyone when the real climbs start. Then there are the other teams, but I think they (except perhaps Ineos) would already be satisfied with a podium. So they all believe in their strenghts.

So, basically. Don't put 4 hardest stages in a GT in the last week. Simple as that. Plus, as soon as Remco was out the TTs were basically irelevant since the main three guys are very much equal. This route might have worked if you had two guys who can TT (Roglič, Thomas) vs GC contenders who cannot (Mas, O'Connor, Gaudu, Landa, Hindley to an extent, Carapaz). But since this year Tour has almost no TTs al those guys skipped the Giro so you are left just with guys who can TT. Which in turn makes all the TTing useless.
 
So there will be four crucial stages in the next five. No more hiding, no more saving energy. The race will absolutely detonate on Monte Bondone, where 17 years ago Robo Basso (while smiling) made Simoni and co look like amateurs. After it there's an easier day and then a triptich of hard stages ending with a brutal TT (which will undoubtedly be won by the strongest climber with the best recovery capabilities). Rogla is the favourite and my prediction here. I do think that Almeida will turn out to be his closest rival (it doesn't have to be close though). Let's hope for great GC racing (finally!).

I heard from someone who said they're apparently climbing Monte Bondone from the other side compared to Robo Basso in 2006 (which I'd already watched again to refresh my memory). The side they're going up is apparently more uneven.

It's a ridiculously long climb though.
 
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I heard from someone who said they're apparently climbing Monte Bondone from the other side compared to Robo Basso in 2006 (which I'd already watched again to refresh my memory). The side they're going up is apparently more uneven.

It's a ridiculously long climb though.

The stage is hard and the final climb as well. This coupled with the stage placement (after a rest day and before an easier day) make me think Bondone will be an all out effort by top guys, maybe even the decisive stage with large gaps. OTOH they may ride Val di Zoldo more conservatively (due to it being the start of a three-peat). The second big moment will be Tre-Cime stage. Lussari ITT will be about survival of the fittest (the winner may already be known by then but if not it could be super-dramatic).
 
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A lot of the fault for the slow and boring racing comes from the route design. When you draw up a race where attacking like crazy, being extra good in the TTs and being in great shape the first two weeks might get you a one minute gap... and then you have 4(!) stages in the last week when you can gain or lose a minute in a span of 5km... then something is wrong. Everyone knows that any time that might be gained in the first two weeks can be lost in one single climb in week three. So they decided that it is wiser to save energy for stages when the differences will be huge. Smart decision but unfortunatelly it leads to boring racing. They are doing what they think is the best way to win on a route that was presented to them.

Yes, my issue is that a team that has the fire power (Ineos, JV) should at least test the other guys in one of the stages. But they decided against it. I am assuming JVs tactic changed as soon Remco and Tao were out of the race. Because I think they believe Roglič will wipe the floor with everyone when the real climbs start. Then there are the other teams, but I think they (except perhaps Ineos) would already be satisfied with a podium. So they all believe in their strenghts.

So, basically. Don't put 4 hardest stages in a GT in the last week. Simple as that. Plus, as soon as Remco was out the TTs were basically irelevant since the main three guys are very much equal. This route might have worked if you had two guys who can TT (Roglič, Thomas) vs GC contenders who cannot (Mas, O'Connor, Gaudu, Landa, Hindley to an extent, Carapaz). But since this year Tour has almost no TTs al those guys skipped the Giro so you are left just with guys who can TT. Which in turn makes all the TTing useless.

There's a lot of great analysis in your post in my opinion, but I think people are too nice on two teams that also voted in favour of shortening an important stage essentially/cutting of its head, and that radically blocked the road today for more attackers when they could have sent parts of their team up front themselves. Yeah, it's a bad, way too backloaded route and there was a lof of bad luck and circumstances involved, but these teams are dead-set on racing as passively as possible and besides all good reasons that also seems to be a basic mentality in a few strong teams.
 
This is the Carapaz-Hindley debacle of a GC all over again, but with even less GC action (didn't think that was possible). No one races to win but everyone is racing not to lose, no risk no fun. Not a very good PR for the Giro, 15 stages and the GC favorites have hardly raised out of the saddle once. But It is a lot of people that like this arm-in-arm racing to the finish line both here and in general. So we get what we deserve i suppose. In my book there are no winners here (except possibly the Gee guy, Healy, Rubio that has actually raced a little ) whoever wins in the end.
 
Just can't shake the feeling that Roglic and Jumbo have Thomas exactly where they want him.

Almeida has a 4 year history of huge consistency that is consistently not good enough to win GTs. Thomas has a pretty hard cap to his level as well

Almeida is 24. Not even nowdays does everybody reach their peak at 22.
And he has finished all 3 GTs he did in the top 10, despite not always being the (sole) leader or fully supported/or believed in at all. Actually I think that's quite impressive and nothing which speaks against him.
 
I'm more inclined to think that Roglic is in bad shape, hasn't been in amazing form in the beginning and is now really hurt from the crashes.
That's likely why he doesn't attack. If he's fine the passive racing of his team is mind-boggling and actually unexcusable in my book.
 
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