Who will win the green jersey in the Tour de France?

[saunaking]

Goss.
Full train, team totally behind him, can hang in small hills, will beat Sagan in pure 'sprint' stages.
So what if he hasnt won a bunch of **** small races this year

 

[CQmanager]

I wouldnt mind if one of the old wolfs Petacchi or Oscarito would take it

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Surprised to see Sagan massively tighten on betfair after today's expected performance.

There are plenty of flat sprints to come, and in every one the gap between first and 5th is 23 points.

Still need to see whether he can get up in the top 3 on those days if he wants to be a 2/1 on favourite like the current price.

 

[El Pistolero]

Sagan will mop the floor with anyone and win at least 10 stages.

Cycling will be incredibly boring for the next 10 years.

 

[jens_attacks]

Sagan will mop the floor with anyone and win at least 10 stages.

Cycling will be incredibly boring for the next 10 years.

yeah.tell that to ullrich

sagan is incredible but you never know what can happen in the future.

 

[HoinkDoink]

Sagan will take it

 

[El Pistolero]

yeah.tell that to ullrich

sagan is incredible but you never know what can happen in the future.

I've given up hope, Sagan will dominate everything except big climbs for the next 10 years.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'd back Cav, Griepel, Kittel & Goss to beat him on a flat sprint more often than not.

Renshaw & Van Hummel also both beat him at the intermediate today.

Petachi, Hautorovich, Bozic etc will also be getting involved in the finishes.

I'm sure he'll have some good flat stages, but he could also be finishing outside the top 5 in a fair few, we'll have to see.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I've given up hope, Sagan will dominate everything except big climbs for the next 10 years.

Lolz....

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Surprised to see Sagan massively tighten on betfair after today's expected performance.

There are plenty of flat sprints to come, and in every one the gap between first and 5th is 23 points.

Still need to see whether he can get up in the top 3 on those days if he wants to be a 2/1 on favourite like the current price.

Great point Waterloo - maybe that's why in the 2 hours since people have calmed down and the price has moderated.

 

[Panda Claws]

I've given up hope, Sagan will dominate everything except big climbs for the next 10 years.

Perhaps, Sagan still hasn't beaten an on-form Boonen on the cobbles, let alone a Cancellara.

Nor has he beaten or even taken on an on-form Gilbert in the hilly classics.

The only thing he is sure to dominate is stages in 1 week races and MSR.

Yeah, I know I am just trying to stay optimistic, even though it is probably no use.

 

[Kopuliak]

Q: who will win green jersey ?
A:

(his new bike created by Cannondale for tomorrows stage)

 

[greenedge]

I thouht GE were working for Goss ( who ended up finishing way back )- at one stage they had 6 riders in the top 15.

The only way my earlier prediction can go well is if Goss goes a lot better than Sagan in each normal sprint.

 

[Afrank]

Perhaps, Sagan still hasn't beaten an on-form Boonen on the cobbles, let alone a Cancellara.

Nor has he beaten or even taken on an on-form Gilbert in the hilly classics.

The only thing he is sure to dominate is stages in 1 week races and MSR.

Yeah, I know I am just trying to stay optimistic, even though it is probably no use.

Sure he hasn't done these things yet, but he is only 22 and has showed that he has the skill to do them in the future. Gilbert had his dominating season at 28. Boonen at 31 has had a dominating season. Sagan has plenty of time to become the rider that dominates the cobbles and hilly classics in the coming years, and I believe he will.

 

[The_Z_man]

I didn't go through all of this thread, so if someone mentioned this before, oh, well.

Anyhoo, I don't like the color of the green jersey this year, or last year for that matter. that lighter green just doesn't do it. The color that PMU uses is a great shade, and they should just make it match up with the sponsor. I guess the only reason I can see for the shade they're using is that they want to make PMU stand out.

 

[Punter]

The Green Jersey race could potentrially be very exciting.

Worthy favourite is Sagan who can score points on stages when his rivals cannot but he may lose chunks on the intermediates and on the flat stages.

Cavendish amassing points but still a suspicion he may pull out before Paris and Goss clearly working for it and his team doing a good job of getting him in position for intermediates and then hanging in to take points.

Its early days and personally I can't wait to follow this to Paris - for the record my money down on Goss pre tour at 10/1 which is probably not that far off where he is trading now.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The Green Jersey race could potentrially be very exciting.

Worthy favourite is Sagan who can score points on stages when his rivals cannot but he may lose chunks on the intermediates and on the flat stages.

Cavendish amassing points but still a suspicion he may pull out before Paris and Goss clearly working for it and his team doing a good job of getting him in position for intermediates and then hanging in to take points.

Its early days and personally I can't wait to follow this to Paris - for the record my money down on Goss pre tour at 10/1 which is probably not that far off where he is trading now.

He's trading at a 4-8 spread on betfair, which bizzarely is a better price than Cav.

Really can't understand the way people are tying themselves in knots trying to work out if Cav is going for it.

There is no reason to go for an intermediate if you are not going for green

There is no reason not to go for an intermediate if you are going for green.

All you have to do is look at the intermediate sprints to see who is going for it.

Plenty of people may stop going for it, and Cav may be one later on, but as long as he can win it, I find it very unlikely he will stop.

26 points taken back on Sagan today versus 41 lost yesterday. He needs 1 or 2 guys to get in front of Sagan tomorrow and he'll be in Green by the weekend.

 

[williamp78]

Even if Cav decides to stop going for the green jersey surely he'll want the victory on the champs elysees?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Watching the highlights and it seems Griepel is not going for green anymore.

1 or 2 lower sprint results in the 2nd half of this week and Goss will bow out too.

 

[Gloin22]

Watching the highlights and it seems Griepel is not going for green anymore.

1 or 2 lower sprint results in the 2nd half of this week and Goss will bow out too.

Goss is definitely going for it and at the end it will be Goss v Sagan fight for it imo.

Greipel isn't interested though as you said.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Goss is definitely going for it and at the end it will be Goss v Sagan fight for it imo.

Greipel isn't interested though as you said.

Unless Goss can better 3rd in a sprint he hasn't a prayer and the leaderboard will make his efforts at intermediates look silly, whether he wants to stop or not.

And I don't really see him bettering 3rd as often as he does worse than it.

 

[oldcrank]

Even if Cav decides to stop going for the green jersey surely he'll want the victory on the champs elysees?

Yes, I think you are spot on. He must still regret abandoning the
Tour in 2008 to ride the track in Beijing. If he hadn't dropped out
in '08 he'd likely be going for a fifth consecutive win in Paris later
this month.

 

[Punter]

Goss maybe unlikely to win a straight sprint stage against Cavendish but I would be surprised if he were to take his eye off the jersey. His team seem really focused on it and much like Cavendish is probably sprinting for points to keep his options open so the likes of Goss will continue to accumulate even if they fall behind as you just never know what could happen to the leader (s)

I will be very interested to see whether Greipel sprints for Green points tomorrow - he is unlikely to win the stage given the profile and I reckon he will go for it whereas today it was all about the stage win.

If I were offering 9/10 the pair

1. Greipel sprints for intermediate points tomorrow
2. Greipel doesn't sprint for intermediate points tomorrow

where would your money go?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Goss maybe unlikely to win a straight sprint stage against Cavendish but I would be surprised if he were to take his eye off the jersey. His team seem really focused on it and much like Cavendish is probably sprinting for points to keep his options open so the likes of Goss will continue to accumulate even if they fall behind as you just never know what could happen to the leader (s)

I will be very interested to see whether Greipel sprints for Green points tomorrow - he is unlikely to win the stage given the profile and I reckon he will go for it whereas today it was all about the stage win.

If I were offering 9/10 the pair

1. Greipel sprints for intermediate points tomorrow
2. Greipel doesn't sprint for intermediate points tomorrow

where would your money go?

He didn't sprint today, and it's simply not a competition where you can pick and choose your moments, unless you are dominant, which no one will be this year.

So if he goes tomorrow, he's either not very bright, or just playing (which in a race this serious would be tantamount to the first option).

 

[Delicato]

Yes, I think you are spot on. He must still regret abandoning the
Tour in 2008 to ride the track in Beijing. If he hadn't dropped out
in '08 he'd likely be going for a fifth consecutive win in Paris later
this month.

Now we know that he failed at madison race at the Olympics, however, at that time I doubt that he was physically mature enough to finish two hard GTs in one year(not mentioning being competitive at the last stage at the Champs)without jeopardizing his Olympics chances. All in all it was a wise decision.