Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

[RedheadDane]

Re:

The favourites

***** The mythical Landa, Quintana, Roglic
**** Porte, Froome, Nibali
*** Uran, Martin, Bardet, Yates, Fuglsang, Thomas
** Bernal, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Mollema, Dumoulin
* Kittel, Valverde et al

He's definitely not going to win!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

The favourites

***** The mythical Landa, Quintana, Roglic
**** Porte, Froome, Nibali
*** Uran, Martin, Bardet, Yates, Fuglsang, Thomas
** Bernal, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Mollema, Dumoulin
* Kittel, Valverde et al

He's definitely not going to win!

You never know. Might want to put a dollar bet on him to strike it rich.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

The favourites

***** The mythical Landa, Quintana, Roglic
**** Porte, Froome, Nibali
*** Uran, Martin, Bardet, Yates, Fuglsang, Thomas
** Bernal, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Mollema, Dumoulin
* Kittel, Valverde et al

He's definitely not going to win!

I think we can put all sprinters in that category and a large portion of the domestiques in that list as well.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Valverde doesn't peak. He races.

Hell, he doesn't even know what peaking is

 

[Parker]

Re:

Valverde doesn't peak. He races.

While there's probably a lot of truth in that, his wins tend to decline dramatically after LBL when others catch up.

 

[Moviefan1203]

1) Porte
2) Froome
3) Quintana

 

[Escarabajo]

No love for Thomas or Yates?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

Valverde doesn't peak. He races.

While there's probably a lot of truth in that, his wins tend to decline dramatically after LBL when others catch up.

That is because he is generous and allows others to win.

 

[bigcog]

Don't think Froome will pull it off, too much grief ongoing, giro fatigue and potential of a crazy 'fan' taking him out. Either Nibali or Porte.

 

[Moviefan1203]

Re:

No love for Thomas or Yates?

Thomas will have to bury himself for Froome. I think Yates will go well, but not podium.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Valverde doesn't peak. He races.

While there's probably a lot of truth in that, his wins tend to decline dramatically after LBL when others catch up.

This is because others are peaking for races after LBL and have much greater differences between peaks and off peaks. (Other than maybe sprinters. Hmmm.....maybe proof he really was supposed to be a sprinter like the peloton though when he first turned pro? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: )

 

[perico]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

 

[Koronin]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

I do keep forgetting about Tom and the cobbles. You are correct he should be fine on that stage. Movistar would not be happy if Nairo tried to ride against his teammates. (Same would go for the other two as well). I do think there will be guys eliminated from GC on the cobbled stage, although it won't be won there.

 

[perico]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

I do keep forgetting about Tom and the cobbles. You are correct he should be fine on that stage. Movistar would not be happy if Nairo tried to ride against his teammates. (Same would go for the other two as well). I do think there will be guys eliminated from GC on the cobbled stage, although it won't be won there.

I meant Nairo being able to pull it off against Sky or Froome vs Nibali or Movistar. He was able to against Pinot and Dumoulin at the Giro, but don’t think Bahrain or the other teams would allow that to happen at the Tour.

 

[Koronin]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

I do keep forgetting about Tom and the cobbles. You are correct he should be fine on that stage. Movistar would not be happy if Nairo tried to ride against his teammates. (Same would go for the other two as well). I do think there will be guys eliminated from GC on the cobbled stage, although it won't be won there.

I meant Nairo being able to pull it off against Sky or Froome vs Nibali or Movistar. He was able to against Pinot and Dumoulin at the Giro, but don’t think Bahrain or the other teams would allow that to happen at the Tour.

Ah, ok, got it. Bahrain looks like they should have a strong team.

 

[42x16ss]

***** Froome
**** Thomas, Bernal
*** Movistar Leadership Committee, Porte, Dumoulin
**Nibali, Uran, Bardet, Yates
* Everyone else

 

[gregrowlerson]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

***** Froome
**** Thomas, Bernal
*** Movistar Leadership Committee, Porte, Dumoulin
**Nibali, Uran, Bardet, Yates
* Everyone else

LOL: Movistar Leaderhip Committee, that's a new one although probably more accurate than the 3 Amigos or the 3 Musketeers.

 

[Martin]

Froome, unless he won't heal his asthma.
If it's gets worse, his win is a no brainer.

 

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

Maybe so, but I have seen nothing to suggest is GT victory material, he will need to at least hold on on mountain stages, instead of just limiting losses, certainly against good TT'ers like Froome or Porte. When he finished sixth in the Giro, he actually only finished top 10 on a mountain stage once.

Oh he definitely has GT winning potential, but it ain’t gonna be this one!

Maybe I should have added the word "currently".

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Froome, unless he won't heal his asthma.
If it's gets worse, his win is a no brainer.

:lol: :lol: :lol: You made my day.

 

[movingtarget]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.

 

[tobydawq]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.

That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

 

[perico]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

Nobody may ride away, but there will be carnage, and the most experienced riders on the pave will benefit.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.

That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

Nothing suggests Valverde is suddenly a TDF winning candidate either.

Nothing. Don't come with your 1 week tours.