Who will win the Tour de France this year?

[theyoungest]

seems like one hell of an argument.

A rider took [place] in [race]. And therefore it is no guarantee that he will take this again.

I have one.

Martin seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 131st last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

I call genius.

No, because Tony Martin is small and fat, and thus does not conform to Bavarianrider's theory

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

No, because Tony Martin is small and fat, and thus does not conform to Bavarianrider's theory

Hook, line and sinker.

 

[Parrulo]

seems like one hell of an argument.

A rider took [place] in [race]. And therefore it is no guarantee that he will take this again.

I have one.

Martin seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 131st last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

I call genius.

hahaha great post

bavarianrider does say some funny things

having gesink out of the top 10 and martin is there is just stupid. no other way to see it. unless something bad happens to gesink (like a injury or a fall) there is no way martin will finish ahead of him.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

hahaha great post

bavarianrider does say some funny things

having gesink out of the top 10 and martin is there is just stupid. no other way to see it. unless something bad happens to gesink (like a injury or a fall) there is no way martin will finish ahead of him.

Maybe when they replace the laws of gravity with those of bavarianrider

 

[Bavarianrider]

No, because Tony Martin is small and fat, and thus does not conform to Bavarianrider's theory

Well Tony stands 1.86m so not that small
However, Tony is a power rider. The problem for those guys is, that they have the power to do well in any terrain, but recovery is a issue. So a guy like Tony has to develop into a GT classement rider, has to ad the endurance to his power to simplicify things. In 2009 he was on a very good way, and last year was a setback, it happens. However he learnt from his mistkes and should be back on track.
Wheras those tall super light weight riders, they are not living on their power, but on their low weight/power ratio. However, it's a very thin line for them and once they have hit this low weight/power peak point there's not much room to go for them.
They can improve in endurance a little, but their leg power is always the limitation. If they wanted to become more powerful legs they would have to change their nutrition, hence gaining weight, hence their weight/power ratio won't go up. Another thing is, that having such a little weight is very bad for your bodys substance, hence those super light tall guys usually don't last that long. They've a shorter peak span than other riders.

 

[VeloCity]

Barring some major upset, it's a four-man race - Contador, A Schleck, and Evans as the top favorites, with (imo) Basso just a tad below.

Contador's got to be the outright favorite, and deserves to be, but I could see any of those four as possible winners.

More to the point, I just can't see anyone else - Sanchez, Gesink, whoever - beating all four of those guys.

 

[theyoungest]

Well Tony stands 1.86m so not that small
However, Tony is a power rider. The problem for those guys is, that they have the power to do well in any terrain, but recovery is a issue. So a guy like Tony has to develop into a GT classement rider, has to ad the endurance to his power to simplicify things. In 2009 he was on a very good way, and last year was a setback, it happens. However he learnt from his mistkes and should be back on track.
Wheras those tall super light weight riders, they are not living on their power, but on their low weight/power ratio. However, it's a very thin line for them and once they have hit this low weight/power peak point there's not much room to go for them.
They can improve in endurance a little, but their leg power is always the limitation. If they wanted to become more powerful legs they would have to change their nutrition, hence gaining weight, hence their weight/power ratio won't go up. Another thing is, that having such a little weight is very bad for your bodys substance, hence those super light tall guys usually don't last that long. They've a shorter peak span than other riders.

Gesink actually isn't a feather weight. That's why it was so surprising he never did great (and last year just did awfully bad) in time trials. He puts out more Watts than a guy like Joost Posthuma, while being 10+ kilos lighter. That's what you need.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Gesink actually isn't a feather weight. That's why it was so surprising he never did great (and last year just did awfully bad) in time trials. He puts out more Watts than a guy like Joost Posthuma, while being 10+ kilos lighter. That's what you need.

He stands 1.87m and races at 68KG or someething. Doesn't get much thinner I'd say

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

How has Andy Schleck not shown improvement by the way?

I don't think he showed improvement last year. This year? Remains to be seen.

He became pro in what, 2006?

So?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He stands 1.87m and races at 68KG or someething. Doesn't get much thinner I'd say

But Gesink puts out 60W more in absolute wattage than an awesome time trial list in his hay-day like Denis Menchov, on the resistance test.

So your theory doesn't fly anyhow. Gesink is power climber/tempo climber. He hates accelerations as much as Tony Martin hates them.

 

[Parrulo]

Maybe when they replace the laws of gravity with those of bavarianrider

according to bavarianrider's way of thinking this guys would be the best climbers in the world

either them or this guys

he clearly doesn't lack the muscles to put those amazing w/kg you talk about

 

[Bavarianrider]

But Gesink puts out 60W more in absolute wattage than an awesome time trial list in his hay-day like Denis Menchov, on the resistance test.

So your theory doesn't fly anyhow. Gesink is power climber/tempo climber. He hates accelerations as much as Tony Martin hates them.

Well Menchov is a lot smaller then Gesink. So it's not astonishing Gesink can produce more total power.
But for his size, Gesink his extremly thin. Come on that's not debatable

 

[theyoungest]

Well Menchov is a lot smaller then Gesink. So it's not astonishing Gesink can produce more total power.
But for his size, Gesink his extremly thin. Come on that's not debatable

Gesink also puts out more Watts/kg than Menchov. Sorry, you picked the wrong guy to start this discussion about, as Gesink is by all means a lab wonder.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

But your theory that thin tall skinny guys hit their limit early is based on nothing.

Like I said, take a look at Hesjedal coming out of nowhere after 4 years of not so much progression.
So far, Gesink has made progression each year..in every area of cycling, so why would it stop at age 24? So far his pre-season has been better yet again than last year.

 

[Bavarianrider]

But your theory that thin tall skinny guys hit their limit early is based on nothing.

Like I said, take a look at Hesjedal coming out of nowhere after 4 years of not so much progression.
So far, Gesink has made progression each year..in every area of cycling, so why would it stop at age 24? So far his pre-season has been better yet again than last year.

Ok ok, we'll see. Just for interest, where do you see him ending up this July then?

 

[Descender]

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ok ok, we'll see. Just for interest, where do you see him ending up this July then?

Without falls or illness he'll finish top 5. If everything goes right for once, just one time without bad luck, he'll finish 3rd.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

pic

naturally a thread about victory in le tour is going to be 100% Gesink baby

But no really, there is so much anti gesink V gesink supporters happening.

I mainly blame el pickle / blahdivarider for using every chance to down size the superstar which is gesink

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The thing is, nobody of us is hyping him up to be a tour winner or anything. Just predict to finish him in the realistic place 3/4/5/6 zone..

Just the anti-gesink guys come with really ridicolous claims/arguments and predictions

 

[robertocarlos]

i kind of agree with bavarian about tall and skinny rider. If we apply this to contador/ andy you could see why contador is a superior rider. because his bmi is highrer than andy but still light enough he could climb with him and accelerate away and on tt he can put the same power but finish ahead because he has less drag surface due to his position and size. in proportion contador is actually more powerful than andy as watt per kilo or should be be cause not only does he have more muscle but a smaller frame too.

 

[Parrulo]

naturally a thread about victory in le tour is going to be 100% Gesink baby

But no really, there is so much anti gesink V gesink supporters happening.

I mainly blame el pickle / blahdivarider for using every chance to down size the superstar which is gesink

and you and D_T for using every chance to hype gesink to a certain degree

honestly i have given up on the gesink talk, cept on special cases like the delusional prevision made by BV of having gesink out of the top 10 and martin in like 6 or 7th. i will wait till the tour where we will all have a better set of info about gesink and then the vuelta where it should count as a confirmation.

 

[jobiwan]

Barring some major upset, it's a four-man race - Contador, A Schleck, and Evans as the top favorites, with (imo) Basso just a tad below.

Contador's got to be the outright favorite, and deserves to be, but I could see any of those four as possible winners.

More to the point, I just can't see anyone else - Sanchez, Gesink, whoever - beating all four of those guys.

I'm going to go all "The Hitch" on you, and say Sanchez should be up there.
Would have probably finished 3rd last year had he not crashed.
Gesink should also be near the Top 5, with an outside shot for a podium.

Either way, this Tour should be good!!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The thing is, nobody of us is hyping him up to be a tour winner or anything. Just predict to finish him in the realistic place 3/4/5/6 zone..

Just the anti-gesink guys come with really ridicolous claims/arguments and predictions

this.

but you know, if we defend a rider when someone says he wont finish in the top 10 were obviously massive fanboys blinded by our love of gesink, who clearly is not good enough to duke it out with the big boys.

 

[Bavarianrider]

The thing is, nobody of us is hyping him up to be a tour winner or anything. Just predict to finish him in the realistic place 3/4/5/6 zone..

Just the anti-gesink guys come with really ridicolous claims/arguments and predictions

Gesink is too dull, boring and average to even have anti - guys

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

and you and D_T for using every chance to hype gesink

honestly i have given up on the gesink talk, cept on special cases like the delusional prevision made by BV of having gesink out of the top 10 and martin in like 6 or 7th. i will wait till the tour where we will all have a better set of info about gesink and then the vuelta where it should count as a confirmation.

I'd like a link to where I hype Gesink up, without factual evidence of performance. Please enlighten me...

I have made jokes, like in the post you quoted that gesink is a superstar, but I make no claim that Gesink is going to blow the competition away.

It ticks me off that when someone else makes negative posts about a rider, and you argue back, you are labelled a fanboy. I stand by the notion that I haven't been delusional when discussing Gesink. Again if you can find a post where I made a ridiculous hype or statement regarding gesink please show me. I'll only discuss the guy if he has been mentioned by another poster.

However I agree the discussions regarding him have been a bit much lately.