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Who will win the Tour de France this year?

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Who will win the Tour de France 2011?

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R

Rydberg

Aug 29, 2009
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movingtarget said:
Forgot that one. Hinault did it as did Eddy and also Fignon too I think. Don't think Indurain did it did he ? Roche did the triple in 1987 with the World Title as well. Even Contador may struggle to do that unless he had the right world's course with lots of climbing. Very hard task I think.
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Indurain doubled up twice, 1992/93. I never saw the Giro back then, so I don't know what the course was like. However, a cautious rider like Indurain probably won the Giro with a lot to spare. It will be interesting to see if Contador recovers well. It is one thing to look fresh compared with you rivals, but quite another to line up for the tour as fresh as Schleck, Evans and Basso etc.
 
Climbing

Climbing

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Dekker_Tifosi said:
I think the Giro/Tour combination is possible.
Menchov was what, 5th in Giro and 4th in tour or something, in 2008?

Contador is of a much higher level and if he reserved his energy well he could be top or at least close to top form in the Tour again. And then nobody is a match except Andy
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I don't think it is really possible to make Giro/Tour in nowadays cycling.
I concede that if there is someone which can pull it off, it's Contador.
 
Timmy-loves-Rabo

Timmy-loves-Rabo

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Dekker_Tifosi said:
If Menchov did it 3 years ago (finishing at his top level twice) I can't see why it wouldnt be possible now.

It's definately infinitely hard. Especially with this years Giro course. But not that impossible
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Menchov wasn't at his complete top level at the giro.
But he did well at both I agree.

But this year's giro was harder no doubt, and AC smashed his opponents. He might have been heads and shoulders above the pack, but the effort must be taxing. And the field is much better at this year's field compared to 08'.

I personally don't think he can do the double, no way.

I might very well end up with egg on my face, we'll see.
I have said it before, but I think seeing AC struggle at the tour and even crack would be an awesome sight. Not in a "yes he is failing, boo ac" way, but in a "ahh he is human. Giro + Tour was simply too much." sort of way.
 
just some guy

just some guy

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Rydberg said:
Indurain doubled up twice, 1992/93. I never saw the Giro back then, so I don't know what the course was like. However, a cautious rider like Indurain probably won the Giro with a lot to spare. It will be interesting to see if Contador recovers well. It is one thing to look fresh compared with you rivals, but quite another to line up for the tour as fresh as Schleck, Evans and Basso etc.
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Good point how many of Indurians competition were also riding the Giro-Tour dbl and there just as many GT km´s in the legs.
 
Kwibus

Kwibus

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Contador had to work for his win, but keep in mind that his competition in this Giro wasn't the level of the TdF. Let's be honest Scarponi and Nibali are very very good riders, but I wouldn't bet on them ending in the top5 of this year TdF if they competed and didn't do the Giro.

I'm not sure what I want to point out here, but maybe the 6 minutes he got on Scarponi on such a mountain GT isn't all that impressive... maybe I'm just talking crazy stuff now.:D

I voted for Contador to win this Tour and now I try to point out AC isn't that impressive afterall? Ofcourse it's ridiculous, but..
 
El Pistolero

El Pistolero

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Kwibus said:
Contador had to work for his win, but keep in mind that his competition in this Giro wasn't the level of the TdF. Let's be honest Scarponi and Nibali are very very good riders, but I wouldn't bet on them ending in the top5 of this year TdF if they competed and didn't do the Giro.

I'm not sure what I want to point out here, but maybe the 6 minutes he got on Scarponi on such a mountain GT isn't all that impressive... maybe I'm just talking crazy stuff now.:D

I voted for Contador to win this Tour and now I try to point out AC isn't that impressive afterall? Ofcourse it's ridiculous, but..
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Well, Contador did nothing at the final mountain stage and took it "easy". He could have definitely taken a lot of time out of him there. He also didn't go all out in stage 19(although we're only talking about a couple of seconds here)
Didn't seem like he went all out on Zoncolan either.

I don't think Samu, Menchov, Gesink, VDB are capable of putting 6 minutes in Scarponi in top shape :eek:

Plus put in a real 50kmtime trial in there and we're talking about Scarponi losing 2 minutes if not more to Contador.
 
Bavarianrider

Bavarianrider

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theyoungest said:
Okay, let me go all Dekker_T on you and say: hello, it was his first Tour at age 24 (barely)... and he hit his limitations?
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Prety much yes, don't think he has anything more in the tank.

Those tall super skinny riders usually show their potential very early.
There's not much room for improvement for him to go.

Obviously there are ecxeptions to this rule, like Rasmussen, but well there might be other reasons for that. But in general it's true.
 
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theyoungest

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Bavarianrider said:
Prety much yes, don't think he has anything more in the tank.

Those tall super skinny riders usually show their potential very early.
There's not much room for improvement for him to go.

Obviously there are ecxeptions to this rule, like Rasmussen, but well there might be other reasons for that. But in general it's true.
Click to expand...
Like who...?
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
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So Bavarianrider, you expect a rider who fell in the first week, broke his ulna, lost 2'30 on the cobbles because of that, and wasn't 100% for the remainder of the tour, and also had an awful ITT level compared to 2011, who still finished 6th despite all of that, to be at his limit?
You're not making an awful lot of sense and your argumentation is pretty flawed.
Btw, to answer your question, Ryder Hesjedal is a long skinny climber who improved drastically compared to 4 years ago, and he is 3 or 4 years Gesink's senior..so erm...
 
Timmy-loves-Rabo

Timmy-loves-Rabo

Jun 22, 2009
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Bavarianrider said:
Gesink seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 6th last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.
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seems like one hell of an argument.

A rider took [place] in [race]. And therefore it is no guarantee that he will take this again.

I have one.

Martin seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 131st last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

I call genius.
 
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