Who will win the Tour de France this year?

[Rydberg]

Forgot that one. Hinault did it as did Eddy and also Fignon too I think. Don't think Indurain did it did he ? Roche did the triple in 1987 with the World Title as well. Even Contador may struggle to do that unless he had the right world's course with lots of climbing. Very hard task I think.

Indurain doubled up twice, 1992/93. I never saw the Giro back then, so I don't know what the course was like. However, a cautious rider like Indurain probably won the Giro with a lot to spare. It will be interesting to see if Contador recovers well. It is one thing to look fresh compared with you rivals, but quite another to line up for the tour as fresh as Schleck, Evans and Basso etc.

 

[Climbing]

I think the Giro/Tour combination is possible.
Menchov was what, 5th in Giro and 4th in tour or something, in 2008?

Contador is of a much higher level and if he reserved his energy well he could be top or at least close to top form in the Tour again. And then nobody is a match except Andy

I don't think it is really possible to make Giro/Tour in nowadays cycling.
I concede that if there is someone which can pull it off, it's Contador.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If Menchov did it 3 years ago (finishing at his top level twice) I can't see why it wouldnt be possible now.

It's definately infinitely hard. Especially with this years Giro course. But not that impossible

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If Menchov did it 3 years ago (finishing at his top level twice) I can't see why it wouldnt be possible now.

It's definately infinitely hard. Especially with this years Giro course. But not that impossible

Menchov wasn't at his complete top level at the giro.
But he did well at both I agree.

But this year's giro was harder no doubt, and AC smashed his opponents. He might have been heads and shoulders above the pack, but the effort must be taxing. And the field is much better at this year's field compared to 08'.

I personally don't think he can do the double, no way.

I might very well end up with egg on my face, we'll see.
I have said it before, but I think seeing AC struggle at the tour and even crack would be an awesome sight. Not in a "yes he is failing, boo ac" way, but in a "ahh he is human. Giro + Tour was simply too much." sort of way.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I can see him in a lesser way, like Giro 08, but still end up winning. Not superb in the mountains as always, but constant enough to win the TDF

 

[just some guy]

Indurain doubled up twice, 1992/93. I never saw the Giro back then, so I don't know what the course was like. However, a cautious rider like Indurain probably won the Giro with a lot to spare. It will be interesting to see if Contador recovers well. It is one thing to look fresh compared with you rivals, but quite another to line up for the tour as fresh as Schleck, Evans and Basso etc.

Good point how many of Indurians competition were also riding the Giro-Tour dbl and there just as many GT km´s in the legs.

 

[Kwibus]

Contador had to work for his win, but keep in mind that his competition in this Giro wasn't the level of the TdF. Let's be honest Scarponi and Nibali are very very good riders, but I wouldn't bet on them ending in the top5 of this year TdF if they competed and didn't do the Giro.

I'm not sure what I want to point out here, but maybe the 6 minutes he got on Scarponi on such a mountain GT isn't all that impressive... maybe I'm just talking crazy stuff now.

I voted for Contador to win this Tour and now I try to point out AC isn't that impressive afterall? Ofcourse it's ridiculous, but..

 

[Bavarianrider]

Gesink seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 6th last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

 

[El Pistolero]

Contador had to work for his win, but keep in mind that his competition in this Giro wasn't the level of the TdF. Let's be honest Scarponi and Nibali are very very good riders, but I wouldn't bet on them ending in the top5 of this year TdF if they competed and didn't do the Giro.

I'm not sure what I want to point out here, but maybe the 6 minutes he got on Scarponi on such a mountain GT isn't all that impressive... maybe I'm just talking crazy stuff now.

I voted for Contador to win this Tour and now I try to point out AC isn't that impressive afterall? Ofcourse it's ridiculous, but..

Well, Contador did nothing at the final mountain stage and took it "easy". He could have definitely taken a lot of time out of him there. He also didn't go all out in stage 19(although we're only talking about a couple of seconds here)
Didn't seem like he went all out on Zoncolan either.

I don't think Samu, Menchov, Gesink, VDB are capable of putting 6 minutes in Scarponi in top shape

Plus put in a real 50kmtime trial in there and we're talking about Scarponi losing 2 minutes if not more to Contador.

 

[theyoungest]

Gesink seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 6th last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

Okay, let me go all Dekker_T on you and say: hello, it was his first Tour at age 24 (barely)... and he hit his limitations?

 

[Bavarianrider]

Okay, let me go all Dekker_T on you and say: hello, it was his first Tour at age 24 (barely)... and he hit his limitations?

Prety much yes, don't think he has anything more in the tank.

Those tall super skinny riders usually show their potential very early.
There's not much room for improvement for him to go.

Obviously there are ecxeptions to this rule, like Rasmussen, but well there might be other reasons for that. But in general it's true.

 

[theyoungest]

Prety much yes, don't think he has anything more in the tank.

Those tall super skinny riders usually show their potential very early.
There's not much room for improvement for him to go.

Obviously there are ecxeptions to this rule, like Rasmussen, but well there might be other reasons for that. But in general it's true.

Like who...?

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

Dude, but not putting him in the top 10 is just hilarious

Especially in such a mountainey course as this one. Full agreement here

 

[Bavarianrider]

Like who...?

Pretty much all of them. They pop up at a very young age. Just like Schleck when he finished 2nd in gis first GT.
Name me one tall super slim climber who improved drastically after his first 4 pro years? (except for Rasmussen)

 

[El Pistolero]

Contador. Duh.

 

[theyoungest]

Pretty much all of them. They pop up at a very young age. Just like Schleck when he finished 2nd in gis first GT.
Name me one tall super slim climber who improved drastically after his first 4 pro years? (except for Rasmussen)

Jurgen VDB.

 

[Ferminal]

Pretty much all of them. They pop up at a very young age. Just like Schleck when he finished 2nd in gis first GT.
Name me one tall super slim climber who improved drastically after his first 4 pro years? (except for Rasmussen)

Alberto Contador? I guess he's not "tall" though.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

So Bavarianrider, you expect a rider who fell in the first week, broke his ulna, lost 2'30 on the cobbles because of that, and wasn't 100% for the remainder of the tour, and also had an awful ITT level compared to 2011, who still finished 6th despite all of that, to be at his limit?
You're not making an awful lot of sense and your argumentation is pretty flawed.
Btw, to answer your question, Ryder Hesjedal is a long skinny climber who improved drastically compared to 4 years ago, and he is 3 or 4 years Gesink's senior..so erm...

 

[Bavarianrider]

Alberto Contador? I guess he's not "tall" though.

I am talking of those pure climbers 1,80m + guys who weigh rougly 20 kilos less.

So like 1.86m and 68kg guys.

 

[theyoungest]

Fränk Schleck would be another example.

 

[The Sheep]

I am talking of those pure climbers 1,80m + guys who weigh rougly 20 kilos less.

So like 1.86m and 688kg guys.

I'd be surprised they could pedal a bike at all

 

[Chef_Vodnik]

Fränk Schleck would be another example.

He was a hilly guy and a mountain domestique first and foremost, though.

 

[El Pistolero]

How has Andy Schleck not shown improvement by the way?

He became pro in what, 2006?

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Well, to answer the original question in this tread for who is going to win the whole thing. What a stupid question really of course it will be Vino.................................`s former teammate AC

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Gesink seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 6th last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

seems like one hell of an argument.

A rider took [place] in [race]. And therefore it is no guarantee that he will take this again.

I have one.

Martin seems like a guy who hit his limitations when he finished 131st last year. But just because he did it once, that does not automatically mean he will do it again this year.

I call genius.