Vuelta a España Who Will Win the Vuelta 2019?

[klintE]

I voted for Kruijswijk. The cours is completely not for him but he would have won TdF if Sky didn't exist so I cheer him up.
As for the top 3, Carapaz, Rogla, Fuglsang would be OK

 

[Leinster]

Of course Ineos waited until after the poll creation to change its line-up, so Poels isn't in the poll.

So? Poels isn’t going to win the Vuelta, any more than Porte is going to win the Tour.

 

[Gigs_98]

I really really really don't see Valverde winning, but boy would it be funny.

Still think Carapaz is underrated. He won the freakin Giro after all and I feel like the punchy Vuelta stages could suit him very well, although this years route isn't as loaded with muritos as previous editions.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Picked Roglic as he looks the most logical, almost obvious, choice. Although as this is after all an odd-year Vuelta, it was tempting to choose someone from the left field like Aru or Chaves.

 

[KZD]

I'm going with a "head" candidate and several "heart" candidates. I picked Carapaz, simply because he can hold his own in the TT but is the best climber in the field, based on his Giro performance.

My "heart" candidates are Roglic, Lopez and Quintana. Having said that, I think any of the listed riders can win, except for Valverde.

There seems to be a groundswell of consensus growing around Roglic, but tbh I think Carapaz can take minutes from him on the final finishing ramps in Stages 7 and 13, and maybe stage 5 too. Of course, he'll need those minutes, as I expect JV to take at least 1:30 from Movistar in the opening TTT and Roglic to take another 2 mintues in the ITT, if not more in both...at the end of the Giro it still looked to me like Carapaz had more in the tank whereas Roglic was emptied. Of course that was months ago.

No way JV takes 1:30min from Movistar in 13.4km more likely something around 20 seconds.

I also think its very unlikely that Carapaz takes minutes from Roglic on stage 7 or 13 if you remember Mende in last year's Tour Roglic is very good on short steep climbs so he should barely lose any time against Carapaz. Stage 9 in Andorra or even stage 16 have a bigger potential to make Roglic lose time on Carapaz/Lopez than those two.

Carapaz had more in the tank at the end of the Giro because Roglic hit his peak too soon, last year in the Tour he was actually better in week 3.

I chose Roglic to win but its the first time that he will race two GT's in the same season so there is some uncertainty. Very interested to see Pogacar, Martinez and Higuita.

 

[barmaher]

Lopez will win. His time has come.

 

[bajbar]

I'm going with a "head" candidate and several "heart" candidates. I picked Carapaz, simply because he can hold his own in the TT but is the best climber in the field, based on his Giro performance.

My "heart" candidates are Roglic, Lopez and Quintana. Having said that, I think any of the listed riders can win, except for Valverde.

There seems to be a groundswell of consensus growing around Roglic, but tbh I think Carapaz can take minutes from him on the final finishing ramps in Stages 7 and 13, and maybe stage 5 too. Of course, he'll need those minutes, as I expect JV to take at least 1:30 from Movistar in the opening TTT and Roglic to take another 2 mintues in the ITT, if not more in both...at the end of the Giro it still looked to me like Carapaz had more in the tank whereas Roglic was emptied. Of course that was months ago.

No way is any team of importance losing 1:30 in 13,4 km TTT. If the difference is any more than 30 seconds I would be surprised. On the ITT 2 minutes is about correct I think. But in the end the climbing form will matter. If both are climbing like "third week Giro" then Carapaz wins. Or Lopez. If Roglič climbs like he did at the begining of the season or third week of the Tour last year (plus most of the 2018 season really) then he wins. Very simple.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Valverde.

I mean, seriously, who else?

 

[Gigs_98]

Valverde.

I mean, seriously, who else?

Yeah, gotta be rational here

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, gotta be rational here

Exactly, I dont respect anyone who is just going of feelings and all that. Gotta take a scientific approach and tests I ran suggested that none other than Valverde would even stand a chance.

 

[tobydawq]

Exactly, I dont respect anyone who is just going of feelings and all that. Gotta take a scientific approach and tests I ran suggested that none other than Valverde would even stand a chance.

He has as many podiums in the race as the entire rest of the peloton combined, so of course he is the biggest favourite!

 

[Lequack]

No one has faith in Fabio Aru?

 

[Koronin]

Obviously my pick is Valverde as there is no other real option for la Vuelta.

Here's a picture from a training (group) ride this week.

 

[rick james]

Stage hunting for ineos I think

 

[Bolder]

No way is any team of importance losing 1:30 in 13,4 km TTT. If the difference is any more than 30 seconds I would be surprised. On the ITT 2 minutes is about correct I think. But in the end the climbing form will matter. If both are climbing like "third week Giro" then Carapaz wins. Or Lopez. If Roglič climbs like he did at the begining of the season or third week of the Tour last year (plus most of the 2018 season really) then he wins. Very simple.

For some reason I thought it was a longer TTT. But I think JV will crush it, relatively speaking. Anyway, yes, it will all come down to climbing.

 

[Pantani_lives]

No one has faith in Fabio Aru?

He has to come back from far, altough his 14th place in the Tour was a step in the right direction.

 

[Sestriere]

He was a couple of stages from winning last year and the race suits him better this year + in the Tour he showed he has still got it.

People have kept saying thrughout the last many years that Valverde is not a GC candidate, yet he rides GC much more successfully than most others.

He was never even in the lead last year... How can he be "a couple of stages away from winning" if that's the case? With this logic applied you could argue that Krujswijk was a couple of stages away from winning the Tour this year. Alaphilippe (Tour 19), Voeckler (Tour 12) or Krujswijk (Giro 16) being a couple of stages away from winning in the respective Grand Tours would be much more reasonable statements to make.

 

[rick james]

He was a couple of stages from winning last year and the race suits him better this year + in the Tour he showed he has still got it.

People have kept saying thrughout the last many years that Valverde is not a GC candidate, yet he rides GC much more successfully than most others.

Except from the guys that actually win GC and most of the top 10 that can beat him

 

[Koronin]

Except from the guys that actually win GC and most of the top 10 that can beat him

Except that in la Vuelta he has 6 podiums (including his 1 win) which ties the record for most Vuelta podiums. He has only finished la Vuelta outside the top 5 twice and outside the top 10 once which was the year he raced all 3 GTs in one season. It's la Vuelta where he has always done very well. He also is tied with 3 others for the most ever top 10's in GC in GT's and one more gives him the record.

 

[starlord]

Pierre Latour

 

[Red Rick]

Valverde isn't gonna win, but I think he's absolutely the right man to wear the #1 in the absence of the defending champion.

 

[Escarabajo]

I am in agreement with the bookies. It is between Roglic, MAL and Carapaz. With Roglic being ahead. But I will vote for someone outside these favorites just for fun. Someone nobody expects to win like Chaves o Uran. I'll go with the impossible: Uran.

I see Roglic fighting for his life against a bunch of hungry South Americans.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

1- Roglic
2- Bala
3- Martinez

 

[The Hegelian]

Two very dissimilar situations, if you ask me.

As far as I am concerned, Yates out-raced himself in the beginning of last year's Giro. Meanwhile, Roglic rode defensively throughout the entire Giro, but just faded in the last week of the race (the reasons for him fading could be many things but it certainly was not because he made the same errors as Yates did the year before).

Yeah, but he was flying through the spring before the Giro. I mean seriously flying. So the fade was always on the cards for this reason - many suspected it.

 

[JosephK]

Ineos to spoil the party with a surprise win by Tao Geoghegan Hart -- which would be less of surprise than Froome's win in 2011. Okay, more realistically . . . Carapaz, who is coming in a bit undercooked (but maybe Roglic).