Vuelta a España Who Will Win the Vuelta 2019?

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Who will win the Vuelta 2019?


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I think you do Ineos a disservice to suggest that they wouldn’t structure their training schedule to get the most out of a rider like Valverde. Let’s not forget that Sky have a handy enough classics record (Thomas, Stannard, Poels, Kwiat) to go with their very impressive Grand Tour output, and other riders have tended to go off the boil after leaving. It suggests that their training programs are at the very least composed with some feedback from the riders themselves; Kwiatkowski actually had a pretty poor first year with them, they tweaked his training and his program, and the following season he won MSR, Donostia, and a rake of other things, as well as a MOTM performance helping Froome to Tour win #4 (iirc).
I would be curious to hear your opinion on what the cause of the less than the usual stellar performance that Ineos mountain support riders had at this year's Tour? For a team that almost always gets their rider's training/preparation just right, it seemed something just wasn't right with Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Poels and others in Tour mountains. The leaders seemed to be fine but their domestiques were off their game.
 
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You and wherearemybreaks need to take a little time and actually watch a race, instead making ridiculous comments supported by just your intense dislike of a particular rider.
Lol!
This is my first post about valverde.
I dont like him, i dont dislike him.... i dont care about him.

Suggesting Valverde worked a lot for quintana and sacrifising his own chances because he rarely sit in the wind for 1 or 2k is ridicoulus.

Quintana also helped Valverde in the last Vuelta or the vuelta a catalunya. Does that mean that quintana is a valuable teammate or a helper of valverde.... Come on!
 
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I believe if he took the same approach as many of his grand tour/stage race opponents, by not competing at a high level throughout the season and focusing on a select few events, then his palmares in grand tours would be more impressive. Early in his career, there was a very short period where he was seen as the next threat to topple Armstrong from his throne. This was before he had consecutive years of crashing out of the Tour. His entire career he has raced pretty much flat out in all the events he took part, be they one day classics, week long stage races or grand tours. It could be argued that, as far as his approach to the Tour and grand tours in general, he is his own worst enemy. And yet he has still had a very impressive career and will eventually end his career as his country's greatest one day racer and one of their greatest overall racers of all time.
I might believe this if he won the 2009 Vuelta in a very dominant fashion. Also, Contador raced really hard every spring, as did other great GT riders in the years of their best performances. Nibali went hard everywhere in 2013, Wiggins in 2012, Evans in 2011, Froome in 2013.
 
I would be curious to hear your opinion on what the cause of the less than the usual stellar performance that Ineos mountain support riders had at this year's Tour? For a team that almost always gets their rider's training/preparation just right, it seemed something just wasn't right with Kwiatkowski, Moscon, Poels and others in Tour mountains. The leaders seemed to be fine but their domestiques were off their game.
I honestly haven’t a clue.

I think an obvious point to start might be that maybe they weren’t any worse in terms of their own power outputs, but other teams have just caught up? Which is something that had to happen sooner or later.

Alternatively, maybe Moscon and Kwiatkowski are just having a bad year, and Poels just had some bad days as he always does. So where before Moscon or Kwiat would pick up the slack when Poels is bad, instead they weren’t up to it so it fell to vanBaarle.
 
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I might believe this if he won the 2009 Vuelta in a very dominant fashion. Also, Contador raced really hard every spring, as did other great GT riders in the years of their best performances. Nibali went hard everywhere in 2013, Wiggins in 2012, Evans in 2011, Froome in 2013.
and if we saw his gt podiums, we are going to see that he didn't contest the win in all his podiums.
 
I don't think that Valverde had the pure GT talent to win a Tour de France. He might have picked off a weak Giro with some luck if he'd peaked at exactly the right moment. Consistent as he's been he's also consistently been not good enough to win them.

He's 39. I think hyping him up as a favorite is silly. But that doesn't detract from his legacy.
He seemed happy enough with his Tour podium. Vino also won a Vuelta as did Menchov but they never looked likely at the Tour. Still Valverde has been the most versatile rider in the modern era. Daylight second.
 
Generally true, apart from the 2006 Vuelta.
I think he contested the win in 2012 Vuelta and 2016 Giro as well. Not that much should have went his way and then he suddenly wins. Mechanical early on in the Vuelta and if he catches up to Nibali on the Agnello, he is winning that race.

Its just funny hearing people say over and over that Valverde isnt a GT-rider despite the fact that he has placed himself very consistently in at least top-10, many times top-5 and even top-3 lots of times.
 
I didn't vote, this field is too shady for me. So it could actually make for a great race. I'm curious to see how Movistar screws it up. Carapaz and Quintana are on their way out, why play the team game? It's one of Valverde's last chances from a GC standpoint. Why not go for it one more time? Too many Chiefs...
 
He seemed happy enough with his Tour podium. Vino also won a Vuelta as did Menchov but they never looked likely at the Tour. Still Valverde has been the most versatile rider in the modern era. Daylight second.
Nibali has 2 separate monuments, to Bala’s 1 monument several times. Plus 5 GT wins to Bala’s 1. You can make a strong case case for Valverde, but it’s by no means open and shut.
 
I think he contested the win in 2012 Vuelta and 2016 Giro as well. Not that much should have went his way and then he suddenly wins. Mechanical early on in the Vuelta and if he catches up to Nibali on the Agnello, he is winning that race.

Its just funny hearing people say over and over that Valverde isnt a GT-rider despite the fact that he has placed himself very consistently in at least top-10, many times top-5 and even top-3 lots of times.
I don't claim he's not a GT rider. He's just not among the very best.

Contador and Purito were better than him on almost every MTF in the 2012 Vuelta. And I checked the time gaps on the Agnello stage. He lost all the time uphill.
 
Reactions: Rollthedice
To fit this year's bill with another newcomer winning a grand tour, it's Pogacar time. Roglic should win though and it will be fun to watch Movistar who line up a fresh GT winner, a has-been GT winner and a serial GT podium achiever, the one and only and forever young, Alejandro Valverde. I mean he's still three years younger than Hornerito. Stranger things have happened in Spain during this time of the year.
 
I don't claim he's not a GT rider. He's just not among the very best.

Contador and Purito were better than him on almost every MTF in the 2012 Vuelta. And I checked the time gaps on the Agnello stage. He lost all the time uphill.
Screw timegaps, he was 10 seconds behind Nibali at some point before him and Scarponi was helped by a moto before Risoul and put lots of time into the Valverde group.
 
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Except that in la Vuelta he has 6 podiums (including his 1 win) which ties the record for most Vuelta podiums. He has only finished la Vuelta outside the top 5 twice and outside the top 10 once which was the year he raced all 3 GTs in one season. It's la Vuelta where he has always done very well. He also is tied with 3 others for the most ever top 10's in GC in GT's and one more gives him the record.
By that logic, Eddie Mercx would win if he entered. :p
 
Nibali has 2 separate monuments, to Bala’s 1 monument several times. Plus 5 GT wins to Bala’s 1. You can make a strong case case for Valverde, but it’s by no means open and shut.
In this case you have to take into account results other than just GTs and monuments along with other podium results. Valverde has been on the podium of Lombardia as well as Amstel. Finished top 10 at Flanders, has record number of wins in several races, and has a lot more wins in general than Nibali.
 
In this case you have to take into account results other than just GTs and monuments along with other podium results. Valverde has been on the podium of Lombardia as well as Amstel. Finished top 10 at Flanders, has record number of wins in several races, and has a lot more wins in general than Nibali.
Across all types of road racing Valverde is on top. Just the amount of wins for one thing. Contador not even close as he was mainly a grand tour rider. Nibali would be second. Maybe Evans a distant third. Not many riders are that versatile anymore or they prefer to specialize while in Hinault's and Eddy's days it was quite common for the best GT riders to win classics as well. Some of them even rode track in the off season and won Six Day races as well, not to mention cyclocross. These days a lot of GT winners or podium riders don't even compete in classics. Valverde's win at the Worlds just cemented his position.
 
1. Roglic: Strong team, course suits him.
2. T. G. Hart: I always try to predict a surprise.
3. López: Will lose time in the ITT, but will have a strong third week.
4. Carapaz: Undisputed leader of his team.
5. Quintana: Undisputed leader of his team.
6. Valverde: Undisputed leader of his team.
7. Kruijswijk: Not really his course, and might be tired after Tour.
8. Poels: Not sure about his shape, but usually good in the third week.
9. Chaves: Will have good days and bad days.
10. Urán: Boring second tier.
11. Majka: Boring second tier.
12. Kelderman: Boring second tier.
13. Aru: Doubtful whether he's really back.
14. D. Martínez: Strong in the first part of the season.
15. Fuglsang: Probably not ready after his crash.
16. O. Rodríguez: Second in Burgos.
17. Pogacar: Too young, but a talent.
18. G. Bennett: Will have to work.
19. Van Garderen: Oh yes.
20. Meintjes: Oh no.
 
The original point to which I replied was about Bala’s versatility. And while he certainly has a broad palmares, to call him uncontested is, IMO, over the top. You could make a very good case for him, but you would have to accept at the same time that a rider like Nibali with multiple GTs and monuments, or van Aert or vdPoel (or Stybar) with wins on and off-road, would also be part of that conversation.

If Simon Yates wins Liege next year, or if Alaphilippe kicks his GC aspirations into gear, or Pinot finally puts a 3-week effort together, they could also become part of it.
 

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