I don't think that Landa/Carapaz duo was much stronger than Bala/Nairo, or that Nibali was stronger than Lopez is, at least uphill. The main difference here is that Roglic looks stronger than in the Giro, but I assure you if he shows his late Giro form here, he will loose, no doubt.
And as for the terrain, well maybe it's not Giro-like, but I would say that Machucos, Acebo, San Lorenzo, Cobertoria, Cubilla could make some damage to anyone.
The key for Roglic, if he wants to win, is that he must not lose any time from now until La Cubilla, cause if he starts to bleed before there will be carnage. Both Astana and Movistar are stronger than Jumbo, and attacks will start flying left and right.