Vuelta a España Who Will Win the Vuelta 2019?

[tobydawq]

This is also what pisses me off the most. CLEARLY lesser riders are being rated above Valverde prerace by lots of people - remember, Rolf Sørensen (who seems obsessed with Valverde and if he is dropping all the time) didnt even have him in the top-10.. In the Vuelta, in this field.

Aren't you doing it yourself? Didn't you just say in a different thread that Mas and Soler would be leading Movistar in next year's Vuelta?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Aren't you doing it yourself? Didn't you just say in a different thread that Mas and Soler would be leading Movistar in next year's Vuelta?

Guess it was phrased wrong - just meant that I expect Mas and Soler to lead the Tour and ride the Vuelta as that seems to be the traditions for the Movistar men who are riding GC in the Tour. We won't know Valverde's schedule next year apart from the Olympics and most probably the Ardennes, but yes, even at age 40 he still will at least co-lead the squad with Mas and Soler next year in the Vuelta.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

This time it even more looks like Roglic than in the Giro. And the last week isn't as hard either.. I'm very interested to see if he can possibly *** this up

 

[Blanco]

This time it even more looks like Roglic than in the Giro. And the last week isn't as hard either.. I'm very interested to see if he can possibly *** this up

But again he's against two Movistars

 

[Escarabajo]

Last week of Giro ended up being a let down IMHO. I just checked the last part of the Vuelta and it is not easy by any means. So it is still not a foregone conclusion.

 

[Blanco]

It looks good for Roglic right now, but it's still a long way. He'll be under pressure no doubt, Valverde on stage 12, Quintana at Machucos, Lopez at 15th stage, and on 16th God knows what could happen, maybe Pogacar will ride from all of them again. On top of that stages 18 and 20 looks ideal for ambushes and alliances... As I said, long, long way for Rogla, although I must say he does look solid as a rock.

 

[starlord]

This situation reminds me of the '17 Giro when Dumoulin took the lead after the ITT (incidentally stage 10 as well) and we were wondering who was going to crack him eventually.
Roglic is in pole position now but anything can happen. The biggest winners so far? Cycling fans, Vuelta keeps delivering.

 

[ice&fire]

The only way I see Roglic not winning is if he gets isolated and Movistar play a reverse Giro strategy: they look at each other while MAL attacks.

 

[Koronin]

Guess it was phrased wrong - just meant that I expect Mas and Soler to lead the Tour and ride the Vuelta as that seems to be the traditions for the Movistar men who are riding GC in the Tour. We won't know Valverde's schedule next year apart from the Olympics and most probably the Ardennes, but yes, even at age 40 he still will at least co-lead the squad with Mas and Soler next year in the Vuelta.

I would expect Valverde's schedule next year to include the Murcia, the Ardennes, la Vuelta and obviously the Olympics.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Roglic
He has a team that isn't dropping off at the sight of the first mountain, learnt his lesson from the Giro, is fresh whereas Movistar are tired from the Tour and their attacks are labored. MAL is the only challenger but is crash prone
The only drawback is Visma's infamous tactical screwups

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah the similarities to the giro are big but crucially, the riders sitting behind roglic this time aren't as good as in the giro and the mountains of the final two weeks aren't as hard (although tbf, in the giro carapaz only needed two stages to take pink from roglic). I really want an exciting race but I cannot see him losing this

 

[Mayomaniac]

Only a Movistar-Astana alliance can beat Roglic, they have to let him and the team do the work when the other one attacks. Movistar has no reason to work if MAL attacks, but will Astana try to protect his podium if Quintana goes on a long range attack?

 

[Lequack]

Posted this in the other thread already, but I find it interesting. Number of ITT kilometers (not including TTT) in previous Vueltas. I can't imagine the current crop of small climbers back in 2003 for example.

 

[starlord]

I really want an exciting race but I cannot see him (Roglic) losing this

These two things are not mutually exclusive

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah the similarities to the giro are big but crucially, the riders sitting behind roglic this time aren't as good as in the giro and the mountains of the final two weeks aren't as hard (although tbf, in the giro carapaz only needed two stages to take pink from roglic). I really want an exciting race but I cannot see him losing this

Such a huge gap between the Vuelta climbs and Giro climbs when the Vuelta doesn't use the Angliru. Somehow they only get like 2 or so genuine ESP climbs every year.

I really like that they're not backloading much, but I think the final 2 mountain stages may just not be hard enough.

 

[Gigs_98]

Such a huge gap between the Vuelta climbs and Giro climbs when the Vuelta doesn't use the Angliru. Somehow they only get like 2 or so genuine ESP climbs every year.

I really like that they're not backloading much, but I think the final 2 mountain stages may just not be hard enough.

They are perfect for tactical games but I think roglic's team might be just too strong for those to work. Still, something like Quintana and Lopez attacking on the cat 1 climb on stage 20 with teammates in front could be very interesting

 

[Red Rick]

They are perfect for tactical games but I think roglic's team might be just too strong for those to work. Still, something like Quintana and Lopez attacking on the cat 1 climb on stage 20 with teammates in front could be very interesting

The 2015 redo isn't hard enough imo. It was hard enough against a gassed Dumoulin before becoming a fully fledged GT contender. It woudn't work on 2017-2018 Dumoulin, it wouldn't work on Roglic.

 

[Blanco]

Yeah the similarities to the giro are big but crucially, the riders sitting behind roglic this time aren't as good as in the giro and the mountains of the final two weeks aren't as hard (although tbf, in the giro carapaz only needed two stages to take pink from roglic). I really want an exciting race but I cannot see him losing this

I don't think that Landa/Carapaz duo was much stronger than Bala/Nairo, or that Nibali was stronger than Lopez is, at least uphill. The main difference here is that Roglic looks stronger than in the Giro, but I assure you if he shows his late Giro form here, he will loose, no doubt.
And as for the terrain, well maybe it's not Giro-like, but I would say that Machucos, Acebo, San Lorenzo, Cobertoria, Cubilla could make some damage to anyone.
The key for Roglic, if he wants to win, is that he must not lose any time from now until La Cubilla, cause if he starts to bleed before there will be carnage. Both Astana and Movistar are stronger than Jumbo, and attacks will start flying left and right.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't think that Landa/Carapaz duo was much stronger than Bala/Nairo, or that Nibali was stronger than Lopez is, at least uphill. The main difference here is that Roglic looks stronger than in the Giro, but I assure you if he shows his late Giro form here, he will loose, no doubt.
And as for the terrain, well maybe it's not Giro-like, but I would say that Machucos, Acebo, San Lorenzo, Cobertoria, Cubilla could make some damage to anyone.
The key for Roglic, if he wants to win, is that he must not lose any time from now until La Cubilla, cause if he starts to bleed before there will be carnage. Both Astana and Movistar are stronger than Jumbo, and attacks will start flying left and right.

I don't necessarily agree about the strength of teams, Jumbo seems deep enough to counter any tactical move at the moment. Astana in particular doesn't look particularly strong here, although Ion has been very consistent in the last few stages.

The key to me is, as you say, if Roglic will show any sign of fatigue as the race goes on. If he fades like he did in the Giro, there sure are enough climbs for Movistar/Lopez/Pogi to take back time. And the team won't really matter.

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't think that Landa/Carapaz duo was much stronger than Bala/Nairo, or that Nibali was stronger than Lopez is, at least uphill. The main difference here is that Roglic looks stronger than in the Giro, but I assure you if he shows his late Giro form here, he will loose, no doubt.
And as for the terrain, well maybe it's not Giro-like, but I would say that Machucos, Acebo, San Lorenzo, Cobertoria, Cubilla could make some damage to anyone.
The key for Roglic, if he wants to win, is that he must not lose any time from now until La Cubilla, cause if he starts to bleed before there will be carnage. Both Astana and Movistar are stronger than Jumbo, and attacks will start flying left and right.

Then you realize that this Lopez guy who is probably the strongest climber of this race was at the giro as well but he wasn't even a big enough factor for you to mention him as one of roglic's rivals in the giro.
Oh and boy do I think landa/carapaz at the giro were on a completely different level than Quintana/valverde here. It's not 2015 anymore

 

[Blanco]

Then you realize that this Lopez guy who is probably the strongest climber of this race was at the giro as well but he wasn't even a big enough factor for you to mention him as one of roglic's rivals in the giro.
Oh and boy do I think landa/carapaz at the giro were on a completely different level than Quintana/valverde here. It's not 2015 anymore

This Lopez is better than the one at the Giro, he also had some misfortunes there. As for Quintana/Valverde, well they've looked pretty strong to me till now, but I guess their real level we will see in the Asturias.

 

[Gigs_98]

This Lopez is better than the one at the Giro, he also had some misfortunes there. As for Quintana/Valverde, well they've looked pretty strong to me till now, but I guess their real level we will see in the Asturias.

What leads to your assumption that this Lopez is stronger than the one at the giro? He had some bad luck there, sure, but most importantly he was outclassed by most of his rivals. The only reason he looks so much stronger here is because the opposition allows it

 

[Valv.Piti]

Dont really agree, he was pretty bad on Lagu Serru for example.

 

[Gigs_98]

Dont really agree, he was pretty bad on Lagu Serru for example.

I think he blew himself up trying to close the gap after his mechanical. Iirc he was still one of the few riders to make the original selection after the first accelerations. Then he had the mechanical, almost closed the gap to Nibali and roglic before losing the whole time again. I think it had little to do with poor shape

 

[Blanco]

What leads to your assumption that this Lopez is stronger than the one at the giro? He had some bad luck there, sure, but most importantly he was outclassed by most of his rivals. The only reason he looks so much stronger here is because the opposition allows it

What leads me is the fact that he's able to escape from his rivals when the road goes uphill, which wasn't the case in the Giro. What leads me is also the fact that he lost 1.45 min less in the TT similar length to stage winner. To me these are convincing indicators of his form.