Who wins the 2011 Tour de France

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

@08 Evans had a complete shocker in the final ITT. Evans looks much stornger now.

Evans needs 1.36seconds per km.

He needs to be 20 seconds up at 1st time check
He needs to be 38 seconds up at 2nd time check

At least 58 up at final check

he came 7th. Not really a shocker. He will come similar tomorrow I assume...
Sastre did a really good ride. If andy can manage a similar performance he will hold on. less km also.

but yeah could go either way certainly.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Who says they have to win the final stage? I mean come down to a sprint between the TWO of them not the sprinters.

And how would it be impossible? If Cadel takes :57 seconds tomorrow then they are tied.

read what a said, it would come down to the little numbers after the whole seconds in the itt
maybe not impossible, but 57* seconds alone is unlikely, an exact hundredths of a second is not gonna happen.

 

[Special_oz_ed]

Too close to call

I'm really hoping it's Cadel. But I think 57s is too close to call it.

Cadel definitely looked stronger at the finish and he's a better ITT'er. But Andy has been preparing for this alone. If he was arrogant enough to believe he could destroy Cadel on the climbs and so not work really hard on his TT, then he'll lose by 25-30s tomorrow.

But if he was foxing in the TdS TT - keeping some in reserve, and waiting to hit peak form in TdF, then it will be very close.

It's been a great Tour - the best I've seen as far as closeness of competition.

 

[roundabout]

I believe if two riders are from the same team and are right next to each other in standings they will split them up......I think Bernard Kohl in 2008 even though he was 3rd in GC before TT had to go 2nd last to split up Sastre and Frank Schleck

I seem to recall Sastre catching Schleck in that TT. IIRC it was for 3 minutes so they started one after another?

 

[auscyclefan94]

he came 7th. Not really a shocker. He will come similar tomorrow I assume...
Sastre did a really good ride. If andy can manage a similar performance he will hold on. less km also.

but yeah could go either way certainly.

he certainly did have a shocker...no doubt about that.

every time you have been wrong timmy about cadel...when will you stop

 

[sublimit]

I believe if two riders are from the same team and are right next to each other in standings they will split them up......I think Bernard Kohl in 2008 even though he was 3rd in GC before TT had to go 2nd last to split up Sastre and Frank Schleck

Yes, That will be fairer otherwise we could see a situation where Frank waits and gives assistance and a target even if there's no drafting.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

he certainly did have a shocker...no doubt about that.

every time you have been wrong timmy about cadel...when will you stop

I am not saying he has no chance lol, learn to read maybe, if you are capable.
Like I said could go either way.

But you saying it was a shocker is an over exaggeration. And if you think he is at the itt level he was back then then you also over exaggerate his abilities.

edit; oh ya..

ps; other then race I don't think i have ever been wrong about cuddles.

 

[luckyboy]

anyway impossible. It would then come down to TTT hundredths of a second. And if that was equal, I would assume the most best placings? Which I assume cadel would win.

TTT precise times..

Cadel vs Andy Best placings..

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

@lucky
thanks, will TTT matter? I assume ITT would take priority
also lol @ stage 16.

could be where andy loses this.

 

[unsheath]

Yes, That will be fairer otherwise we could see a situation where Frank waits and gives assistance and a target even if there's no drafting.

Frank will make a great rabbit for Evans. Should see him between the 1st and 2nd splits.

 

[The Hitch]

I'm going with Andy

You couldnt let us see which posters vote for which option?

 

[roundabout]

I voted Evans if it's really important to know.

 

[AtletiSK]

I think it will be Andy

 

[Maxiton]

Evans is *much* stronger now and recovering better than in 2008. Sastre rode unexpectedly well. Andy in contrast is weak in the chrono and this TTT certainly did nothing to dispel that idea. Advantage Evans.

 

[Magic Spanner]

Evans because he has the experience of '98 ITT v Sastre still hurting to spur him on. Won't make same mistake twice.

What happened with his bike today?

 

[Menndo]

I Think Andy will win, 53 seconds can be enough.

 

[Ferminal]

Andy by 11.

 

[K-0tic]

I am not saying he has no chance lol, learn to read maybe, if you are capable.
Like I said could go either way.

But you saying it was a shocker is an over exaggeration. And if you think he is at the itt level he was back then then you also over exaggerate his abilities.

edit; oh ya..

ps; other then race I don't think i have ever been wrong about cuddles.

Anyway, Evans was strong whole TdF, Andy has somewhat been playing hide and seek for some time. That's also an indication for me. But we'll see, even though it's too exciting already right now.

Btw, you as an Aussi, you're not supporting Cadel?

 

[the vagabond]

Well, it'll be close, but either way, somebody is going to have their 3rd second place and it's going to be even closer than their other two 2nd places.

Normally, the yellow jersey is enough to be able to hold 57 seconds, especially on a shortish, hilly course. Evans has to ride for the splits of the fastest time and hope he doesn't crack. He will have to win or come very close to winning to take yellow.

It's a better situation for Evans though. If he comes second, he will achieve a certain mythical, Poulidor-like status. If Schleck comes second he will just be considered a choker and a loser.

 

[EmpressJo]

This will be really tight.

I actually don't mind which of them wins it - always had a soft spot for both - but sentimentally I'd like Cadel to win; it's probably his last shot of doing so.

Having said that, I voted with my head and went Baby Schleck; being in yellow and being so close to wearing it in Paris should be motivation enough to do the TT of his life.

 

[sartoris]

I wish it's Cadel. He's showed guts for a change in this Tour, attacking and closing gaps like crazy. He deserves it. Might be his last chance too. On the other hand, Andy has a longer carrer ahead and he can always win in the future (as long as AC is not in the race, of course )

 

[El Pistolero]

Contador to pull back 4 minutes on everyone

He'll catch Samuel Sanchez, Ivan Basso, Tom Danielson and Pierre Rolland. And he'll also catch Cunego even though he starts after him.

 

[FignonLeGrand]

It'll be close but I'll go with Cadel.

+1 back to 89

 

[Apollonius]

Riddle me this.

Say baby Schleck just hangs on tomorrow and he's left in the yellow by something very small like three seconds....could we see a break in convention and see Cadel attack on the Champs? It's happened before albeit not in a long long time and Cadel isn't there to win friends is he?
That's purely hypothetical, however.

 

[luckyboy]

No harm in trying.