Who wins the 2014 Giro?

[LaFlorecita]

I'm gonna say Majka

No, seriously, Purito, Basso or Kreuziger

 

[SKSemtex]

so many names can be under "other" option: valverde, quintana, majka, betancur, koenig ... (still out of world tour team btw.)

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

TAWK

........................

 

[ElChingon]

Other! Since he's still holding of on announcing he's racing it.

 

[MatParker117]

Must be some massive coincidence that by far his best performance was when given a jersey to defend and a domestique to ride for him

That's actually got me thinking of the contenders who's potentially got the best help? I mean Porte, Purito & Roche are going to have grand tour leaders in there own right riding for them. Where as others may be a bit thin in numbers later on the slopes.

 

[The Hitch]

Your first 2 points basically boil down to - he's physically capable of this, but would not normally get the chance or motivation - which is a terrible argument to advance if you want to say why that previous performance is not relevant when judging the rider as a potential leader later on in his career.

No. The argument is that a large % of the peloton are physically capable of finishing in and around the top 10 in a none tour gt, if that were their aim and they got a team to back them, so finishing top 10 in itself is not neccesarily such a special thing.

The reason average riders don't usually finish top 10 in a none tour gt is that no team is going to spend money building a team around them to finish top 10

Most riders at that level don't end up leading squads into gc battle but work as domestiques themselves or go for stages.

So the people who usually finish top 10 in gts are noted for it because they have done so on their own which is why its an acheivement in the first place.

If a top 10 contender suddenly has an entire team behind him to acheive that average aim then that is a notable advantage.

And even though you ignore it, caring is also an advantage, since many riders dont see it as that big a deal and top 10s are often acheived by chance from riders who otherwise feature high in mountain stages.

You dismiss the fact that he had the pink jersey on his back. But absolutely no one is going to continue going 100% to the line if they are 4 and a half minutes down on a mountain stage, unless they have a leaders jersey on their shoulders and still are placed high up in the gc.

Anyone else in that position is just going to let go and save for another day.

You are acting as if a grand tour was an event where 180 people got on a bike machine and the 10 people who posted the highest 10 scores are the top 10, totally ignoring every other variable in the sport.

The 3rd point is valid but weak - I don't recall a lack of competition trying to get a top 10 place in that race -there were still good riders trying to pass him for his place who did not manage to, such as Sastre.

.

I don't really trust what you do or don't recall from that giro if 1 sentence later you mention Sastre as a rider trying to pass him for his place. Sastre was the opposite, one of the few riders who was in the break (and there was a lot of hype about that) but was worse than Porte.


Riders who gave up on top gc after Laquilla. Garzelli for example, saved himself for a stage win from that point. Gadret took it easy on 1 stage not long after. Karpets who had been hoping for a top 10 before that just threw in the towell. Chris ANker Sorensen of course who became a domestique for Porte.

Plenty of other potential candidates from riders who performed well on some of the mountain stages.

Its simple logic though if before all the gt stages (only the weakest one - Terminillo had taken place), guys who find themselves 15 minutes down on gc are not going to kill themselves for a top 10 from that stage

Its ludicrous to deny it.

 

[The Hitch]

Thanks, I went with people I know with some certainty will be there otherwise I'd of added another one or two.

Roche? What makes you think he is a contender and which gt leaders do you think he will have working for him?

 

[MatParker117]

Roche? What makes you think he is a contender and which gt leaders do you think he will have working for him?

He did well at the Vuelta and the home start will provide plenty of motivation. As for domestiques Majka maybe but the strength of his domestiques depends on what Riis can do to cover the hole in his budget.

 

[Pippo_San]

Lol @ the OP. We don't even know who will take part of it

So random. I'm going with Nicolas Roche. Just because.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

So Porte's top 10 doesn't count because he cared about the result, whilst many others were not riding for GC.

I'm somewhat at a loss as to which top 10 placing that statement would ever not apply to. The reality remains that the vast majority of riders do not have the physical ability to finish top 10 in their first GT, regardless of motivation levels, and even other people apparently having given up (as evidenced by 4 of the top 5 not being in that break...).

I apologise that I will not be able to respond to each of your points; having taken the time to read your missive I had already rather exceeded the time I considered it within anyone's dignity to devote to this.

 

[plooton]

From the perspective of Kreuziger's fan, I'm scared of the parcour, overly it's dull with to many TT kms. Looks like fitted for damn Porte. Contrary, the 2 last real stages are brutal - Zoncolan and 1.5 km elevation in the MTT. Hope Kreuziger could make his first GT podium, but this Giro isn't particularly suitable for him (think he could have good MTT, but not so for Zoncolan). Nevertheless, he should do better than the likes of mentioned above: Roche, Evans, Uran and Pozzovivo.

 

[Afrank]

Porte, Evans, Uran, Rodriguez, Basso, Roche, Pozzovivo

No Betancur? I'd say he's probably pretty certain. Gotta get that stage win he missed out on this year as well.

And isn't Kreuziger planning on doing the Giro as leader as well? Thought I read that somewhere. Might be just a rumor though.

 

[Afrank]

will Uran ride the Giro? I can see Roche instead of Majka because of the Ireland start, but Uran? I thought he wanted to focus on the Tour.

Uran will race the Tour, that's the GT he wants to race as leader in and I believe one of the conditions of his signing with Omega.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

At the risk of being wrong (as usual), I'm going with Purito.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

From the perspective of Kreuziger's fan, I'm scared of the parcour, overly it's dull with to many TT kms. Looks like fitted for damn Porte. Contrary, the 2 last real stages are brutal - Zoncolan and 1.5 km elevation in the MTT. Hope Kreuziger could make his first GT podium, but this Giro isn't particularly suitable for him (think he could have good MTT, but not so for Zoncolan). Nevertheless, he should do better than the likes of mentioned above: Roche, Evans, Uran and Pozzovivo.

Can't see Kreuziger going to the Giro. He will be needed at the tour in case Contador fails again.

 

[Cyivel]

Out of those Rodriguez, that is just my opinion of course I can't prove it with a link, sorry.

 

[The Hitch]

WTF is Evans doing on this list????

 

[Escarabajo]

WTF is Evans doing on this list????

Horner did it at 42, why not Evans?

 

[42x16ss]

Is there any word on who Movistar is sending? Rui Costa could show well on GC if he's given a good team, would love to see the WC jersey up there in the thick of things.

Others not in the poll with an outside chance could be Majka, Betancur, de Gendt, Aru, Fuglsang, Kelderman

 

[Afrank]

Is there any word on who Movistar is sending? Rui Costa could show well on GC if he's given a good team, would love to see the WC jersey up there in the thick of things.

Others not in the poll with an outside chance could be Majka, Betancur, de Gendt, Aru, Fuglsang, Kelderman

Valverde has hinted that he may ride.

 

[42x16ss]

Valverde has hinted that he may ride.

If he shows up with the form he had at the TdF then he would probably win this.

Also forgot that Costa will be at Lampre - so probably riding the TdF

Any word on Frandy's race schedule?

 

[thehog]

Valverde has hinted that he may ride.

I think everyone wants to avoid Team Sky Power train at the Tour.

Have a normal race for once.

 

[42x16ss]

I think everyone wants to avoid Team Sky Power train at the Tour.

Have a normal race for once.

That will be understandable. Between Froome, Quintana, Nibali and (possibly) Contador there won't be room for anyone else. Everyone else is insignificant.

 

[Afrank]

Any word on Frandy's race schedule?

The usual Ardennes plus Tour as main goals. Confirmed for Andy at least, I would guess the same for Frank.

 

[movingtarget]

WTF is Evans doing on this list????

And Roche, Basso and Pozzovivo should be on there ? Porte will be the favourite. Hopefully he does better than Wiggo.