Who wins the 2014 Giro?

[contessador]

Other is my guess.

Someone not at all expected to win will win this version.

 

[42x16ss]

And Roche, Basso and Pozzovivo should be on there ? Porte will be the favourite. Hopefully he does better than Wiggo.

At least he doesn't break down and cr@p himself when it rains on the downhills.

 

[theyoungest]

WTF is Evans doing on this list????

Evans is still a headliner on Cyclingnews, being Aussie and all. And, to be fair to him, he did make the podium this year...

So Porte's top 10 doesn't count because he cared about the result, whilst many others were not riding for GC.

I'm somewhat at a loss as to which top 10 placing that statement would ever not apply to. The reality remains that the vast majority of riders do not have the physical ability to finish top 10 in their first GT, regardless of motivation levels, and even other people apparently having given up (as evidenced by 4 of the top 5 not being in that break...).

I apologise that I will not be able to respond to each of your points; having taken the time to read your missive I had already rather exceeded the time I considered it within anyone's dignity to devote to this.

Isn't it obvious that Porte would never have made the top-10, if it were not for that massive breakaway? First year pro, unproven as a climber, suddenly finds himself in the pink jersey and goes beyond his limits to defend it.

Compare Kruijswijk, who climbed just as well as Porte on most stages, but who went in breakaways in others, and didn't go full gas in the MTT. End result: 17th.

Porte has improved since then, and may well make the podium, but really we have nothing to go on.

 

[42x16ss]

Porte has improved since then, and may well make the podium, but really we have nothing to go on.

The way he helped crack some of the very best climbers in the world at the Tour last year is a good indication, as was his pacing of Froome in the final 2-3 mountain stages. The only climber who was at a similar level that is confirmed for the Giro so far is Rodriguez.

Porte missed a move in one mountain stage and didn't ride one of the TT's all out, otherwise he was one of the 5-6 strongest in the race

 

[theyoungest]

The way he helped crack some of the very best climbers in the world at the Tour last year is a good indication, as was his pacing of Froome in the final 2-3 mountain stages. The only climber who was at a similar level that is confirmed for the Giro so far is Rodriguez.

Porte missed a move in one mountain stage and didn't ride one of the TT's all out, otherwise he was one of the 5-6 strongest in the race

He didn't 'miss a move', he got dropped like a sack of potatoes. On a good day he's among the very best climbers, the question is whether he can have three weeks of that.

 

[fraserhughes]

I'm hoping for Purito to finally win a GT, but I'm not voting for him as no-one I vote for ever wins anything and I don't want to jinx him!

 

[SafeBet]

I say Fabio Aru has an outside shot at the podium if he stays healthy the whole Giro.

Purito is my main favorite, this is likely his last chance to win a GT and won't wait as much as he's done in the past on mountain stages.
I don't buy Valverde coming to race a GT in Italy.
Porte surely among those who can win it, but has to prove his consistency over three weeks, and I'm not very confident he will. Sky sending Henao as well? Some sort of backup leader is needed.
Basso, Evans and Pozzovivo have no chance whatsoever. Scarponi on the other hand could again come close to podium, or even make it. Same for Uran if he rides here.

Betancur is another guy that could easily make the podium on such a route. Majka is interesting but I've got a feeling that Berto will come to race this and win it.

An outsider to keep an eye on: Diego Rosa.

 

[fraserhughes]

I don't buy Valverde coming to race a GT in Italy.

I think he might be coming the realisation that if will give him his best chance of another GT win.

If he does the Tour he won't win and will be tired at the Vuelta, if he does the Giro he has a better chance of winning (I still don't see him doing so) and will come to the Vuelta fresher.

 

[the asian]

Hope Quintana rides the Giro, if not Purito or Basso.

Porte will fail miserably.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I think he might be coming the realisation that if will give him his best chance of another GT win.

If he does the Tour he won't win and will be tired at the Vuelta, if he does the Giro he has a better chance of winning (I still don't see him doing so) and will come to the Vuelta fresher.

Valverde's best chance of another GT win is to focus on the Vuelta and to skip the other two GTs. I don't think he cares about the Giro at all and think he'll be aiming for a TDF podium spot, instead. He'll probably be content with a top-5.

 

[JRanton]

I say Fabio Aru has an outside shot at the podium if he stays healthy the whole Giro.

Purito is my main favorite, this is likely his last chance to win a GT and won't wait as much as he's done in the past on mountain stages.
I don't buy Valverde coming to race a GT in Italy.
Porte surely among those who can win it, but has to prove his consistency over three weeks, and I'm not very confident he will. Sky sending Henao as well? Some sort of backup leader is needed.
Basso, Evans and Pozzovivo have no chance whatsoever. Scarponi on the other hand could again come close to podium, or even make it. Same for Uran if he rides here.

Betancur is another guy that could easily make the podium on such a route. Majka is interesting but I've got a feeling that Berto will come to race this and win it.

An outsider to keep an eye on: Diego Rosa.

Brailsford and Henao have both spoken about him riding the Tour next year in support of Froome. Can't see Wiggins returning to the Giro to ride for Porte so their next best GC rider for grand tours is Nieve.

 

[JRanton]

So according to Unzue either Quintana or Valverde will ride the Giro.

 

[the asian]

So according to Unzue either Quintana or Valverde will ride the Giro.

Hope it's Quintana! He can definitely win it.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Hope it's Quintana! He can definitely win it.

I hope not. The Tour would be boring without him.

 

[The Hitch]

He didn't 'miss a move', he got dropped like a sack of potatoes. On a good day he's among the very best climbers, the question is whether he can have three weeks of that.

No, on a good day hes the second best climber. Ax3 was a good day and he was miles ahead of everyone but Froome.

 

[JRanton]

I hope not. The Tour would be boring without him.

Nibali will be there next year and perhaps we'll see a better Contador.

 

[the asian]

I hope not. The Tour would be boring without him.

With the rumored route and the long ITT towards the end Froome will win the Tour unless a crash. It's better to Quintana to focus on the Giro, where he has a very good chance of winning rather than wasting his time riding Bore De France. Otherwise He'll become the new Andy.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

With the rumored route and the long ITT towards the end Froome will win the Tour unless a crash. It's better to Quintana to focus on the Giro, where he has a very good chance of winning rather than wasting his time riding Bore De France. Otherwise He'll become the new Andy.

It may be better for his career, but for the fans? Not sure.

Anyway, Froome is the favorite for sure, but Quintana has an outside chance at the title. I kind of like the rumored route with only one, long ITT at the very end. Hautacam will be a massacre, IMO

 

[fraserhughes]

Otherwise He'll become the new Andy.

Please dear god nooooo.

 

[wwabbit]

Porte seems to have a problem handling two consecutive hard days of exertion.
Ax3 domaines stage was followed by his fail the next day.
His fail at Pais Vasco ITT was preceded by exerting himself to gap the leading bunch at the previous stage

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Porte seems to have a problem handling two consecutive hard days of exertion.
Ax3 domaines stage was followed by his fail the next day.
His fail at Pais Vasco ITT was preceded by exerting himself to gap the leading bunch at the previous stage

I don't know if that's it. He was pretty consistent in the Alps, after all. (as well as consistently "above average" in his breakthrough Giro)

 

[Pricey_sky]

Would love Basso to take it, by my head says Porte will take all the beating. Purito to podium.

 

[SKSemtex]

It will be interesting to find our whether the third Sky superdomestique can handle the leadership better then his Colombian felow-riders.

I do not think it will be so easy for him. He might not get such a superdomestiques superhelp as the Sky leaders we had before.

Probably the fact that Giro is before the Tour can be a factor and we will see Skyborgs fully loaded and armed. Then it might be the piece of cake.

 

[MatParker117]

It will be interesting to find our whether the third Sky superdomestique can handle the leadership better then his Colombian felow-riders.

I do not think it will be so easy for him. He might not get such a superdomestiques superhelp as the Sky leaders we had before.

Probably the fact that Giro is before the Tour can be a factor and we will see Skyborgs fully loaded and armed. Then it might be the piece of cake.

Here's a team I came up with to kill time a few days ago:

Porte, Nieve, Deignan, Kiryienka, Cataldo, Puccio, Lopez, Dombrowski, Eisel

 

[42x16ss]

Very solid team, not unrealistic either.