Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[SeriousSam]

As one can expect this far out, there's still some variation across bookmakers so I'll write down the ranges.

Froome: 33% to 48%
Quintana: 31% to 33%
Contador: 11% to 22%
Aru: 5-8%
LRP: Around 5%

So Froome is the clear favourite, as you would expect and Quintana a dangerous challenger. Contador may or may not challenge, Aru and LRP are Nibali 2014 esque long shots.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

I don't think that Aru will get Nibali's Tour team. Tiralongo will be by Aru's side for sure. They might send Cataldo, Rosa and LLS to the Tour as well.

Landa depends on if he is riding Giro/Vuelta or he will be a pure Porte-replacement (leading Giro then supporting in the Tour).. If first-mentioned, it's likely that König will ride the Tour. Don't know about Henao either. I think Boswell could ride the Tour. He is old and strong enough to make a debut.

The Movistar and Tinkoff teams look about right. But Majka doesn't like the idea of riding the Tour because he can't ride the Vuelta then.

The most obvious favorite has to be Froome. I can't see anyone beating him.

Landa wants to go to Rio and the Spanish national coach won't take anyone who wasn't at the tour.

I think should be pretty safe if he wins or podium the Giro. A Giro victory is an automatic ticket to the Olympics. But I'm not really sure he will ride Rio when Valverde/Purito/Contador is already there. Four leaders is too much and Minguez tends to chose the same riders as he always does.

My guess:

Sky: Froome, Thomas, Poels, König, Boswell, Roche, Kwiatkowski, Rowe, Stannard.
Tinkoff: Contador, Kreuziger, Rogers, Sagan, Trofimov, Hernandez, Valgren, Bennati, Tosatto.
Movistar: Quintana, Valverde, D. Moreno, Anacona, Herrada, Erviti, Rojas, Castroviejo, Dowsett.
Astana: Aru, Rosa, Cataldo, Kangert, Tiralongo, Malacarne, LLS, Lutsenko, Zeits.

Sky will have the strongest no matter what. For Contador, it comes down to his individual performance. Even with Majka, his team is the least strong.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Surely Tinkoff will finally use Kiserlovski as support. Trofimov, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski to be Alberto's top domestiques, Mick road captain, Jesus will be there to take over roommate duties from Ivan, Majka to not ride any GT next year cause Oleg won't take his ***.
Sagan, Bennati, Tosatto and Valgren/Boaro complete the team.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I think this is Nairo's race to lose. I think he will hold his own on the TTs and seal his victory in the Alps.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Surely Tinkoff will finally use Kiserlovski as support. Trofimov, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski to be Alberto's top domestiques, Mick road captain, Jesus will be there to take over roommate duties from Ivan, Majka to not ride any GT next year cause Oleg won't take his ****.

I think Majka will ride Giro/Vuelta. If Contador wins the Tour, he will not race the Vuelta. It's only there as a back-up plan in case he wouldn't win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Surely Tinkoff will finally use Kiserlovski as support. Trofimov, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski to be Alberto's top domestiques, Mick road captain, Jesus will be there to take over roommate duties from Ivan, Majka to not ride any GT next year cause Oleg won't take his ****.

I think Majka will ride Giro/Vuelta. If Contador wins the Tour, he will not race the Vuelta. It's only there as a back-up plan in case he wouldn't win.

Either Majka rides Giro/Tour or he will learn the hard way not to be a brat and Oleg won't let him race any GT. There is no way he will ride Giro/Vuelta.

 

[Red Rick]

Great poll, great moment, we can really make accurate predictions now.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Great poll, great moment, we can really make accurate predictions now.

 

[Valv.Piti]

The amount of climbing throughout the race, I feel like Quintana finally will win next year. I cant ever remember the Tour being this climb heavy, between Le Lioran, Pyrenees, Ventoux, Colombier and the Alps, we freaking have 9-10 mountain stages which is quite insane. I really miss a real queen stage, if I had to pick one tho, it had to ben Emosson just for the insane one-two punch in the finale which reminds me of the stage Schleck won, just with a downhill on that occasion.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Surely Tinkoff will finally use Kiserlovski as support. Trofimov, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski to be Alberto's top domestiques, Mick road captain, Jesus will be there to take over roommate duties from Ivan, Majka to not ride any GT next year cause Oleg won't take his ****.

I think Majka will ride Giro/Vuelta. If Contador wins the Tour, he will not race the Vuelta. It's only there as a back-up plan in case he wouldn't win.

Either Majka rides Giro/Tour or he will learn the hard way not to be a brat and Oleg won't let him race any GT. There is no way he will ride Giro/Vuelta.

For the sake of your idol, I hope Majka won't be in the team.

Anyway, I agree with the user who said Froomewill win both time-trials and the Tour.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Surely Tinkoff will finally use Kiserlovski as support. Trofimov, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski to be Alberto's top domestiques, Mick road captain, Jesus will be there to take over roommate duties from Ivan, Majka to not ride any GT next year cause Oleg won't take his ****.

I think Majka will ride Giro/Vuelta. If Contador wins the Tour, he will not race the Vuelta. It's only there as a back-up plan in case he wouldn't win.

Either Majka rides Giro/Tour or he will learn the hard way not to be a brat and Oleg won't let him race any GT. There is no way he will ride Giro/Vuelta.

I had a strange dream about a similar scenario a couple of days ago.

Majka refused to ride the Giro because he wanted to ride the Vuelta. So they forced him to work for Contador in the Tour in order to lead the lead the Vuelta.

In the next scene, Oleg visits a sick Chris Horner with an inhaler in hospital which he convinces him to lead the Giro as a Majka replacement in order to lead the Vuelta.

We never finds out who wins the Giro or Vuelta, but in the next scene Horner and Majka, both in Tinkoff jerseys, are racing against each other at the Vuelta. They are all alone on a volcano-like climb with Majka glued to Horner's wheel. They are shouting in anger at each other over who Oleg gave leadership to.

 

[Scarponi]

Re: Re:

Surely Tinkoff will finally use Kiserlovski as support. Trofimov, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski to be Alberto's top domestiques, Mick road captain, Jesus will be there to take over roommate duties from Ivan, Majka to not ride any GT next year cause Oleg won't take his ****.

I think Majka will ride Giro/Vuelta. If Contador wins the Tour, he will not race the Vuelta. It's only there as a back-up plan in case he wouldn't win.

Either Majka rides Giro/Tour or he will learn the hard way not to be a brat and Oleg won't let him race any GT. There is no way he will ride Giro/Vuelta.

I had a strange dream about a similar scenario a couple of days ago.

Majka refused to ride the Giro because he wanted to ride the Vuelta. So they forced him to work for Contador in the Tour in order to lead the lead the Vuelta.

In the next scene, Oleg visit a sick Chris Horner with the inhaler in hospital as he convinces to lead the Giro as a Majka replacement in order to lead the Vuelta.

We never finds out who wins the Giro or Vuelta, but in the next scene Horner and Majka, both in Tinkoff jerseys, are racing against each other at the Vuelta. They are all alone on a volcano-like climb with Majka glued to Horner's wheel. They are shouting in anger at each other over who Oleg gave leadership to.

Finally Rujano bridges across and takes both of them

 

[Velolover2]

Lol!

 

[Miburo]

Contador is the favorite for the MTT, in by far his worst year ever he almost beat froome in a similar MTT in the tour.

I don't see any reason why he can't have his shape of 2014 again but you never know. I know froome and quintana will be ready, objectively you really can't know about contador although i believe in him.

 

[BigMac]

Too soon to even guess. Have to wait for the Dauphiné.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

I don't see any reason why he can't have his shape of 2014 again but you never know. I know froome and quintana will be ready, objectively you really can't know about contador although i believe in him.

Didn't you also 'know' that Nibali was ready for 2015? No one is guaranteed to show up at close to their best.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Froome will take his 3rd win.
Looking forward to see Porte in BMC colours

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't know why there is already a poll for this race, but okay.
I voted for Contador, not because he is my favorite rider, but because I just have the feeling he will show his power one last time. Would be great to see him winning the tdf in his last season

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Froome will take his 3rd win.
Looking forward to see Porte in BMC colours

Mucho this. I can start to like him now.

 

[Arredondo]

I don't know why there is already a poll for this race, but okay.
I voted for Contador, not because he is my favorite rider, but because I just have the feeling he will show his power one last time. Would be great to see him winning the tdf in his last season

You think a rider like Bauke Mollema will win Tirreno, Catalunya and Dauphiné next year?

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I don't think that Aru will get Nibali's Tour team. Tiralongo will be by Aru's side for sure. They might send Cataldo, Rosa and LLS to the Tour as well.

Landa depends on if he is riding Giro/Vuelta or he will be a pure Porte-replacement (leading Giro then supporting in the Tour).. If first-mentioned, it's likely that König will ride the Tour. Don't know about Henao either. I think Boswell could ride the Tour. He is old and strong enough to make a debut.

The Movistar and Tinkoff teams look about right. But Majka doesn't like the idea of riding the Tour because he can't ride the Vuelta then.

The most obvious favorite has to be Froome. I can't see anyone beating him.

Landa wants to go to Rio and the Spanish national coach won't take anyone who wasn't at the tour.

I think should be pretty safe if he wins or podium the Giro. A Giro victory is an automatic ticket to the Olympics. But I'm not really sure he will ride Rio when Valverde/Purito/Contador is already there. Four leaders is too much and Minguez tends to chose the same riders as he always does.

My guess:

Sky: Froome, Thomas, Poels, König, Boswell, Roche, Kwiatkowski, Rowe, Stannard.
Tinkoff: Contador, Kreuziger, Rogers, Sagan, Trofimov, Hernandez, Valgren, Bennati, Tosatto.
Movistar: Quintana, Valverde, D. Moreno, Anacona, Herrada, Erviti, Rojas, Castroviejo, Dowsett.
Astana: Aru, Rosa, Cataldo, Kangert, Tiralongo, Malacarne, LLS, Lutsenko, Zeits.

Sky will have the strongest no matter what. For Contador, it comes down to his individual performance. Even with Majka, his team is the least strong.

Kangert is one of Nibali's boys and Birdsong always rides the Tour, but other than that it should be something like that.

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't know why there is already a poll for this race, but okay.
I voted for Contador, not because he is my favorite rider, but because I just have the feeling he will show his power one last time. Would be great to see him winning the tdf in his last season

You think a rider like Bauke Mollema will win Tirreno, Catalunya and Dauphiné next year?

pfffff no, Nibali will simply do the double

 

[AlexNYC]

I picked Quintana. It's hard to look past Froome, but some people forget that Quintana would likely have won this year if not for Movistar's error in the second stage. Next year's Tour suits Nairo even more than this year's, so I think it will be hard for Froome to beat him again.

Of course, this is all predicated by both being in the same shape as this year's. I think Contador is a little past his prime and his team is not great while exactly the opposite is true for his main rivals. All things being equal, I don't see how he can overcome that.

 

[May0maniac]

I voted for Contador, this year he was focussed on the double, but if 2014 Contador shows up he'll be hard to beat. The time trials are great for him, hilly enough to limit his losses against Froome (if he shows up in 2013 ITT shape) and he should be able to gain time on Quintana in those.

 

[Jspear]

WAY to early to accurately say....I'll pick AC though. Some like to point out that he hasn't won the Tour since 09(10), and that's true - But that doesn't reflect his form. As recently as 2014 he was in AMAZING form. He can still reach a high level....hopefully his winter goes smoothly.