Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

You're right. Gut feeling and intuition > methods that works such as trains, thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning.

Do you believe in unicorns too?

Did I say I do not believe in "thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning"?

In the end it boils down to the strength of your leader in the train. If Froome can't drop Contador, your superclimbing train is pointless.

true, but the likelihood of even 2 big guns both being in magic form is clearly small - probably we can remember only 2 vivid examples bertie and rasmussen in 2007 and bertie and chris in the 2014 dauphine - so superclimbing train strongly maximizes your gains at best scenario and is able to help to limit losses at worst which is fairly a big deal.

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

You're right. Gut feeling and intuition > methods that works such as trains, thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning.

Do you believe in unicorns too?

Did I say I do not believe in "thoroughly analyzed scientific training, bike technology innovation and extremely detailed planning"?

In the end it boils down to the strength of your leader in the train. If Froome can't drop Contador, your superclimbing train is pointless.

Trains are only useful if you are on a defense. The scenario in which there is ITT in first, early second week would be such example (which with completely unbalanced routes in Tour is impossible), Nibali riding away from everyone on cobbles, or Froome crushing people by over a minute on first MTF.

If that is not the case and the gaps are below <2min entering the 3rd week, train doesn't really help and is vastly overrated. Especially in stage threads with people getting excited that a leader is isolated with 10km to go on a final climb....

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

You can't same the same for Contador's pro-conti level climbers (except for Majka who is not even going to be there and doesn't like doing dom work).

Say what

Paulinho, Hernandez, Trofimov. The elite of the climbers. And Kreuziger can't climb these days.

Compare that to Sky. Both Landa, Intxausti, Henao, Thomas, König, Poels, Nieve can outclimb Contador's leutnant.

And I would not be surprised if Kiryienka, Kwiatkowski, even Kennaugh and Boswell would be able to do too.

#throwback to the time when Trofimov beat König on a MTF by almost a minute, and then the Mortirolo by over a minute...

Oh wait it was 6 months ago.

Bertie's team may not be as good as SKY incorporated but it's not that bad. Besides, Landa hopefully won't go to the Tour and then it's Henao (an explosive climber who can't really set a tempo), Intxausti,Thomas and Poels who are better than Trofimov and Kreuziger.

So really it's not that big a gap.
Also you forgot Kišerlovski.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

I see Quintana climbing at least as well as Froome next year, considering he did this year and got one more year under his belt now. Hopefully he will come to France closer to his absolute peak next year, but Im sure that will get taken care off baring incidents.

Problem is not his climbing it's the several minutes he'll lose when the stopwatches come out and whether or not Froome will motor up Arcalis if both those things happen, he's giving away about four to five minutes, not an advantage you wanna give Chris Froome.

that just means Quintana has to look to gain maximum time on any mountain stage. That means attacking from far out, which is a good thing for us fans. The less mountain sprinting in the last 2KM the better IMO

Kind of thing the skytrain is designed around preventing though, if he goes from 50k out all Roche, Poels, Landa a G would do is slowly wind him back in.

Well shoot! I guess there's no reason for anyone to show up and race then, since it is all pre-ordained.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

You have no idea.

Even in his 2014 shape, Alberto will still need at least 0.2 w/kg more in order to hang on to (or outkick) a Tour-ready Froome.

The Vuelta-Froome he has a beaten recently is not the same as a peak TDF Froome. It's not impossible but Alberto has to be as good as he was in 2009 if he wants to win.

And I'd say that he has to be glued to his wheel on the first MTF. In the last editions, that's where Froome has won the Tour. We already knew that he was going to win in 2013 and 2015 after the first MTF. I don't buy all that "tired in the last week" bullsh*t. He was going to win no matter what. With a huge gap down to the closest rivals, he only had to defend himself.

Fact is, if Contador and Quintana only relies on the third week, they will lose the Tour.

How in G-d's name can you possibly say this with any certainty??? .2 w/kg? Also, we know Vuelta-Froome is not the same as peak TDF Froome. But do you concede that the Vuelta-Alberto that beat Froome that year is not peak TDF Alberto? I just think there are too many unknowns for folks to speak with any real conviction about what Alberto or Froome can do against each other in peak condition--especially when none of us really knows what that looks like for either (to say with certainty that they are at their peak at any given time).

EDIT: I see where you've come to your conclusion. So basically you're treating 2013 TDF Froome as being on par with 2014 Vuelta Contador. I'm not sure how you make the conclusion given that Contador was coming off a leg fracture, but I certainly don't see that as an apples to apples comparison. Vuelta 2014 is probably the best we've seen of the two at close to peak (save maybe the 2014 Dauphine)). I just hope we get a straight up battle once and for all so that we can put this question to rest (yeah right )

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

You have no idea.

Even in his 2014 shape, Alberto will still need at least 0.2 w/kg more in order to hang on to (or outkick) a Tour-ready Froome.

The Vuelta-Froome he has a beaten recently is not the same as a peak TDF Froome. It's not impossible but Alberto has to be as good as he was in 2009 if he wants to win.

And I'd say that he has to be glued to his wheel on the first MTF. In the last editions, that's where Froome has won the Tour. We already knew that he was going to win in 2013 and 2015 after the first MTF. I don't buy all that "tired in the last week" bullsh*t. He was going to win no matter what. With a huge gap down to the closest rivals, he only had to defend himself.

Fact is, if Contador and Quintana only relies on the third week, they will lose the Tour.

How in G-d's name can you possibly say this with any certainty??? .2 w/kg? Also, we know Vuelta-Froome is not the same as peak TDF Froome. But do you concede that the Vuelta-Alberto that beat Froome that year is not peak TDF Alberto? I just think there are too many unknowns for folks to speak with any real conviction about what Alberto or Froome can do against each other in peak condition--especially when none of us really knows what that looks like for either (to say with certainty that they are at their peak at any given time).

EDIT: I see where you've come to your conclusion. So basically you're treating 2013 TDF Froome as being on par with 2014 Vuelta Contador. I'm not sure how you make the conclusion given that Contador was coming off a leg fracture, but I certainly don't see that as an apples to apples comparison. Vuelta 2014 is probably the best we've seen of the two at close to peak (save maybe the 2014 Dauphine)). I just hope we get a straight up battle once and for all so that we can put this question to rest (yeah right )

You are right about the "yeah right".

If Contador cannot climb with Froome next year then some will say, "But he's too old now. If he were in his prime...."

And if Froome cannot climb with Contador next year then some will say, "But after two TDF victories in three years it was clear that he'd lost the motivation. If he were hungry...."

There is no end

 

[Singer01]

Re:

I feel climbing trains are only a big thing on this forum. Seems like people on other boards don't attach too much importance to them. They're so overrated here.

i don't like how important they are, however that doesn't change the fact that 3 of the last 4 tours have been won iin no small part because of the sky train.

 

[Karaev1]

Quintana will get his first win this year. He was the strongest this year and he should've won if that first week was "normal'. No need for this Contador vs Froome discussions, Nairito will destroy them all.

 

[meat puppet]

Geraint Thomas.

 

[Publicus]

Re:

Quintana will get his first win this year. He was the strongest this year and he should've won if that first week was "normal'. No need for this Contador vs Froome discussions, Nairito will destroy them all.

pray tell, how was the first week abnormal?

 

[rick james]

Re:

Quintana will get his first win this year. He was the strongest this year and he should've won if that first week was "normal'. No need for this Contador vs Froome discussions, Nairito will destroy them all.

If he was the strongest rider in this years tour he would not have got dropped in the wind, he also couldn't hold Froomes wheel on the first real MTF...He was all over the place for the first 10 days