Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[SeriousSam]

Re:

But these odds are just way, way off.

Yeah, for one, they assign everyone else zero chance, which is absurd. But they can't even be compared to bookmaker odds at all because they are conditional on everyone having top shape, rather than conditional on all available public information. They are not predictions given what we know know, they are predictions given what may never transpire.

Forecasting how far off top form the riders will be is of course of the crucial aspects of forecasting who will win.

Though LaFlorecita may well 'feel' that the bookmaker odds ignore relevant public information like Contador's prepraration for the Tour not being ideal this year or Froome's impending fatherhood, there is no evidence that this is the case and plenty against it (why would people that actually risk money ignore it? why are odds so good at predicting if they ignore public information?)

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

But these odds are just way, way off.

Yeah, for one, they assign everyone else zero chance, which is absurd.

Oh my god

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

But these odds are just way, way off.

Though LaFlorecita may well 'feel' that the bookmaker odds ignore relevant public information like Contador's prepraration for the Tour not being ideal this year or Froome's impending fatherhood, there is no evidence that this is the case and plenty against it (why would people that actually risk money ignore it? why are odds so good at predicting if they ignore public information?)

We know you love those odds, not everyone shares that love. Get over it and don't try to push it down everyone's throats, it's annoying as *** and borders on trolling. You've been warned for it in the past.

 

[bassano]

actually last year I did bets before tour de france on everyone from fab 4 expect froome and I waited when froome will do some mistake in 1st week and odds will go up and then I will bet even on him to have money guaranteed but that never happened because he had no problems from start to end, this year I will try it again I will start with Contador because 5:1 is quite nice then I will wait what will happened, Nibali is not there so only 3 bets (I do not know if Aru have some real chance)

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re: Re:

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

But the thing is that we haven't seen AC in topform since 2011.

That is not true, he was riding against rujano ffs. No competiton. Only in 07 and 09 contador had level to best froome 13, 15. Don't think 7 years on he will find that level again specially when u see what happened since.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

That is not true, he was riding against rujano ffs. No competiton. Only in 07 and 09 contador had level to best froome 13, 15. Don't think 7 years on he will find that level again specially when u see what happened since.

Actually competition in 2011 Giro was better then in Tour, Nibali, Scraponi in his best form ever, it was his year, Menchov (a bit on decline but still), Rodriguez on the other side Tour was just Evans vs Schleck brothers (which to be honest is not so great) and Contador tired from hardest GT in last 5 years which Giro 2011 was, Basso 2011 was not so great anymore
Rujano was great in steep mountains anyway not that I really like him but you can not say he is noone

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

Actually odds did nto change at all after route was known so there you know how they are making it

I did not see much to change it either.

 

[dacooley]

the funniest thing is probably that if that was 2.50 for contador, and 5:1 for froome, almost everybody would've been content and the discussion wouldnt have arised.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

the funniest thing is probably that if that was 2.50 for contador, and 5:1 for froome, almost everybody would've been content and the discussion wouldnt have arised.

It's not 2.5 for Froome and 5:1 for Contador, it's 5:4 for Froome and 6:1 for Contador.
I see Paddy power now have Froome at 1:1 and Contador at 7:1. Unfortunately they don't accept Dutch customers, none of them do actually

 

[dacooley]

as far as i know bookmakers fix odds depending on current bet amounts. So if players make a 10k bet on contador at 6:1 (expected payoff - 60k) while the other group of players invest 20k at 2.5:1 (50), bookmakers will always lower contador's ratio up to 5:1 in order to balance financial risks for both possible scenarios. thereby, it's a part of the game too.

 

[doperhopper]

Re: Re:

I'm more interested in seeing whether Contador and Froome will face each other before the Tour De France.

One thing is sure, Contador's Giro level is not enough to beat Froome.

but lets not forget froome will most likely be a daddy soon. this wont make him sleep(recover) better in the pre race training. he cant be apart from wife and kid all time u know. fresh daddy nibalis 2015 was much worse than `13 an `14

unless... it turns out that a bit less of sleep is actually a marginal gain: less nightly fat building, naturally gets you up early for training, both physical and mental, encourages short power naps during the day that improve your recovery... the list goes on... and let's not underestimate how a photo of your baby can improve focusing on your stem!

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

But these odds are just way, way off.

Though LaFlorecita may well 'feel' that the bookmaker odds ignore relevant public information like Contador's prepraration for the Tour not being ideal this year or Froome's impending fatherhood, there is no evidence that this is the case and plenty against it (why would people that actually risk money ignore it? why are odds so good at predicting if they ignore public information?)

We know you love those odds, not everyone shares that love. Get over it and don't try to push it down everyone's throats, it's annoying as **** and borders on trolling. You've been warned for it in the past.

The only thing that could be construed as a 'warning' for my odds related posts are actually your angry assertions that no one cares about them. Amusingly, it then emerged that plenty of people care about them.

But let's not get off topic and personal here shall we. My post was about how your feelings about something you don't appear to understand in the slightest are wrong. Is there any supporting evidence you've neglected to share, or is it all feeling?

 

[HelloDolly]

I am not sure why people on here are going on about odds and performance. Odds are usually based on what money has been put on an athlete
So if some Columbian came along and put a pile of money on Quintana then his odds would tumble and he could be favourite

If some people are so sure Contador will win now is your time to put your money where your mouth is and back him

Its also strange to say
"I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%"

and then to say "I think Contador will win"...Surely you must then rate his chances as higher than Froome?

 

[dacooley]

that's always about dreams and willingness to bring idol's win closer even by means of words and opinions. bookies don't have an emotional involvement into sporting events, fans do have. that's the reason why bookies make and will always make money on fans' faith, dreams and expectations.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

If some people are so sure Contador will win now is your time to put your money where your mouth is and back him

I tried to, but as I posted earlier, unfortunately none of the bookmakers accept Dutch customers.

Its also strange to say
"I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%"

and then to say "I think Contador will win"...Surely you must then rate his chances as higher than Froome?

It's not strange - I made it very clear that the above odds are purely based on their physical capabilities, and don't take things like team strength, tactics and consistency throughout the race into account. If I do take those into account, on top shape, I think Contador would beat Froome. I think they are on a similar level, but Contador is a smarter racer.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

unless... it turns out that a bit less of sleep is actually a marginal gain: less nightly fat building,

But did you know sleep improves your metabolism? If you have a hard time losing weight, try going to bed an hour earlier than usual for a while

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

that's always about dreams and willingness to bring idol's win closer even by means of words and opinions. bookies don't have an emotional involvement into sporting events, fans do have. that's the reason why bookies make and will always make money on fans' faith, dreams and expectations.

+1.
What he said.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

If some people are so sure Contador will win now is your time to put your money where your mouth is and back him

I tried to, but as I posted earlier, unfortunately none of the bookmakers accept Dutch customers.

Bookmakers are wary of Dutch residents ? Have they got a dogey record

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

as far as i know bookmakers fix odds depending on current bet amounts. So if players make a 10k bet on contador at 6:1 (expected payoff - 60k) while the other group of players invest 20k at 2.5:1 (50), bookmakers will always lower contador's ratio up to 5:1 in order to balance financial risks for both possible scenarios. thereby, it's a part of the game too.

^^^ I just checked again and now best odds for Contador is 5/1, with many he is 4/1

Bookmakers are wary of Dutch residents ? Have they got a dogey record

Apparently online gambling is illegal here, I did not know.

 

[RedheadDane]

Technically each of those guys could be hit by a Shimano-car during a race a week before Tour-start, break both legs, and be forced to sit out the race.
Not very likely, but it could happen.

 

[WheelofGear]

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

I see Quintana climbing at least as well as Froome next year, considering he did this year and got one more year under his belt now. Hopefully he will come to France closer to his absolute peak next year, but Im sure that will get taken care off baring incidents.

 

[MatParker1711]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

I see Quintana climbing at least as well as Froome next year, considering he did this year and got one more year under his belt now. Hopefully he will come to France closer to his absolute peak next year, but Im sure that will get taken care off baring incidents.

Problem is not his climbing it's the several minutes he'll lose when the stopwatches come out and whether or not Froome will motor up Arcalis if both those things happen, he's giving away about four to five minutes, not an advantage you wanna give Chris Froome.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

I see Quintana climbing at least as well as Froome next year, considering he did this year and got one more year under his belt now. Hopefully he will come to France closer to his absolute peak next year, but Im sure that will get taken care off baring incidents.

Problem is not his climbing it's the several minutes he'll lose when the stopwatches come out and whether or not Froome will motor up Arcalis if both those things happen, he's giving away about four to five minutes, not an advantage you wanna give Chris Froome.

that just means Quintana has to look to gain maximum time on any mountain stage. That means attacking from far out, which is a good thing for us fans. The less mountain sprinting in the last 2KM the better IMO

 

[MatParker1711]

Re: Re:

I still can't see how anyone is going to beat Froome. On Mont Ventoux, Contador and the rest are going to get absolutely grilled.

Nobody can push the watts that Froome does.

I see Quintana climbing at least as well as Froome next year, considering he did this year and got one more year under his belt now. Hopefully he will come to France closer to his absolute peak next year, but Im sure that will get taken care off baring incidents.

Problem is not his climbing it's the several minutes he'll lose when the stopwatches come out and whether or not Froome will motor up Arcalis if both those things happen, he's giving away about four to five minutes, not an advantage you wanna give Chris Froome.

that just means Quintana has to look to gain maximum time on any mountain stage. That means attacking from far out, which is a good thing for us fans. The less mountain sprinting in the last 2KM the better IMO

Kind of thing the skytrain is designed around preventing though, if he goes from 50k out all Roche, Poels, Landa a G would do is slowly wind him back in.