Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Having said that, I hope next Tour doesn't become a parade of Contador's fans crying about the route, the Sky train, Movistar tactics just because their beloved Contador fails at his performance.

Fortunately for you that won't happen cause he won't fail

 

[roundabout]

Re: Re:

It shows what they are like at similar levels. Both crashed out of the Tour (an argument can be made that Froome had even more time to recover because he crashed out earlier), both had injuries to heal from (the argument can be made that AC's comeback was even greater because he had a leg injury - more essential for riding a bike than a hand). AC came out on top. Does that show us who is the best when both are in top form? No but I think it's a good indicator. That and the 2014 Dauphine are the best we have to look at. From the CD we also can conclude that AC can keep up with Froome on those crazy accelerations. From the 2013 and 2015 Tour we can conclude that Froome can't keep those accelerations going for more than a couple days. I think AC has proven to have better recovery over the years...my guess is you'd disagree. Froome is going to have to ride even stronger and have a longer period of top form to beat AC if he comes in with his 2014 form.

it shows the only thing - ac is a better rider when both on top form / simialar form under the Vuelta 2014 circumstances, in september 2014, at that interval of time. Does it show ac being a stronger rider on equal form today, in 2016 or in general? no. and the same relates to froome with his 2013&2015 tours. any suchlike generalizations are very deceptive.

Or maybe Contador's injury was talked up like every problem that he has.

After all, a fractured tibia didn't hinder Gilbert in the Giro.

 

[LaFlorecita]

It wasn't talked up, people just can't read or don't bother to read.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

It shows what they are like at similar levels. Both crashed out of the Tour (an argument can be made that Froome had even more time to recover because he crashed out earlier), both had injuries to heal from (the argument can be made that AC's comeback was even greater because he had a leg injury - more essential for riding a bike than a hand). AC came out on top. Does that show us who is the best when both are in top form? No but I think it's a good indicator. That and the 2014 Dauphine are the best we have to look at. From the CD we also can conclude that AC can keep up with Froome on those crazy accelerations. From the 2013 and 2015 Tour we can conclude that Froome can't keep those accelerations going for more than a couple days. I think AC has proven to have better recovery over the years...my guess is you'd disagree. Froome is going to have to ride even stronger and have a longer period of top form to beat AC if he comes in with his 2014 form.

it shows the only thing - ac is a better rider when both on top form / simialar form under the Vuelta 2014 circumstances, in september 2014, at that interval of time. Does it show ac being a stronger rider on equal form today, in 2016 or in general? no. and the same relates to froome with his 2013&2015 tours. any suchlike generalizations are very deceptive.

We only have the past to look at. Of course all this discussion is subjective....at least for the most part.

 

[hrotha]

So when Contador publicly ruled out his starting the Vuelta, that was his way of saying twas but a scratch.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Having said that, I hope next Tour doesn't become a parade of Contador's fans crying about the route, the Sky train, Movistar tactics just because their beloved Contador fails at his performance.

Fortunately for you that won't happen cause he won't fail

I hope that he is in top shape. I want everyone on top shape. No excuses. Not sure if that would be enough to beat Froome.

 

[contador_attacks]

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

Fact is he hasn't been at his best at the Tour since 09, 7 years ago, and even then his victory was against the likes of Schleck and 37 year old Armstrong. If he is to win next years Tour he will have to be at an even better level than that year, or at least on par.

 

[SeriousSam]

Take 09 Schleck and put him in this year's Tour. What happens?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

At this point I'd say that Contador is a pretty big underdog to Froome and even to Quintana.

 

[pink_jersey]

Re:

Take 09 Schleck and put him in this year's Tour. What happens?

He'll finish second.He's Andy Schleck after all...

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

At this point I'd say that Contador is a pretty big underdog to Froome and even to Quintana.

I don't think AC is a "big underdog" to Froome, but the arguments are somewhat understandable. Quintana though?? What makes you think that?

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

At this point I'd say that Contador is a pretty big underdog to Froome and even to Quintana.

This is probably right. It doesn't mean that Contador is physically in decline, but people tend to only look at your last result, which was finishing off podium at the TdF. I think Contador has a chance to change that perception with a more traditional start to his calendar and focusing solely on peaking for the TdF. Unless and until he gives folks a reason to believe that he's managed to recapture his 2014 form, he will be the underdog to both.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

At this point I'd say that Contador is a pretty big underdog to Froome and even to Quintana.

This is probably right. It doesn't mean that Contador is physically in decline, but people tend to only look at your last result, which was finishing off podium at the TdF. I think Contador has a chance to change that perception with a more traditional start to his calendar and focusing solely on peaking for the TdF. Unless and until he gives folks a reason to believe that he's managed to recapture his 2014 form, he will be the underdog to both.

I think most can at least remember 1 year out. For instance I think most remember that AC won the Giro, RdS, and then was 5th in the Tour. Most also probably remember that Quintana placed 1st in TA, then only managed a 2nd and 4th in the two gt's. Seems pretty obvious to me who was better.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

At this point I'd say that Contador is a pretty big underdog to Froome and even to Quintana.

This is probably right. It doesn't mean that Contador is physically in decline, but people tend to only look at your last result, which was finishing off podium at the TdF. I think Contador has a chance to change that perception with a more traditional start to his calendar and focusing solely on peaking for the TdF. Unless and until he gives folks a reason to believe that he's managed to recapture his 2014 form, he will be the underdog to both.

I think most can at least remember 1 year out. For instance I think most remember that AC won the Giro, RdS, and then was 5th in the Tour. Most also probably remember that Quintana placed 1st in TA, then only managed a 2nd and 4th in the two gt's. Seems pretty obvious to me who was better.

Time is a funny thing . . . a year can make all of the difference in the world. And to be clear, I don't think he's an underdog. I just understand that some people have a rational reason for considering him an underdog.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I believe he will beat Froome. He will be at his best. When he is at his best, the others have no chance.

At this point I'd say that Contador is a pretty big underdog to Froome and even to Quintana.

This is probably right. It doesn't mean that Contador is physically in decline, but people tend to only look at your last result, which was finishing off podium at the TdF. I think Contador has a chance to change that perception with a more traditional start to his calendar and focusing solely on peaking for the TdF. Unless and until he gives folks a reason to believe that he's managed to recapture his 2014 form, he will be the underdog to both.

I think most can at least remember 1 year out. For instance I think most remember that AC won the Giro, RdS, and then was 5th in the Tour. Most also probably remember that Quintana placed 1st in TA, then only managed a 2nd and 4th in the two gt's. Seems pretty obvious to me who was better.

last common start (the 2015 tour) always becomes a main reference point when evaluating cyclist's chances for the future events which is fair. exactly a year ago contador was considered the biggest tour favorite while froome was the second one with a slight margine. today we have the opposite. i don't quite get what 2014 form means as we don't know whether bertie 2014 level would be enough against 2016 levels of quintana and froome. all we know for sure is 2014 bertie's form is enough to destroy the 2014 versions of froome and nairo, but all the seasons are very different, so any suchlike reasonings look like terribly simplified model. their peak conditions are very relative and interdependent, and life is way more difficult to even try to boil the 2016 tour scenario to one's form. grand tour is a very tricky integral with lots of factors.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Nothing Contador has shown in the last 3 years points to him being able to beat Froome over any parcours when both are at their peak, especially as he is moving away from his best as he gets older, and froome is in the middle of his best years.
Wishing something is so, doesn't make it so, no matter how much some of you (and to a lesser extent I) would like it to be true.

And nothing Froome has shown points to him being able to beat Contador when both are at their absolute peak.
We haven't seen them go head to head in a GT when both are in great shape. 2014 Vuelta would be closest.

Yet the bookies still favor Froome a lot more than Contador...

The bookies just want to earn as much money as possible. I do not value their opinion at all.

The odds reflects how things stands between those guys pretty well. But if you are of that belief, I can't see why you would go on and throw some €€€ his way since Contador at least is as good as Froome. There is some pretty **** damn good value in his odds then

I haven't voted, though have thrown $100 on Contador at $8

It is funny that there are almost as many votes for him as Froome! I think that he has a better than $8 chance, though I'm probably biased, being a fan. Still, not sure why everyone keeps going back to 2014. Alberto's best was pretty good this season. If he has his legs from the Giro ITT and Mortirolo then he will be at least in the mix next July. And the route is an excellent one for him.

 

[The Blues]

Re: Re:

Jspear quote:

I think most can at least remember 1 year out. For instance I think most remember that AC won the Giro, RdS, and then was 5th in the Tour. Most also probably remember that Quintana placed 1st in TA, then only managed a 2nd and 4th in the two gt's. Seems pretty obvious to me who was better.

Winning TA is much better than winning RDS on any objective parameter, first of all. And obtaining 2nd in the Tour often, and, looking at the numbers, probably in this case as well, requires better or equal numbers to what you need to win the Giro. 5th in the Tour is, on paper, better than 4th in the Vuelta, but Quintana was way closer to winning or at least getting on the podium (despite being ill in a significant phase of the race). On the other hand, Contador was never any threat in the Tour. So it is hardly obvious who had a better season, in my opinion. Performance-wise I would probably back Quintana (although not by a big margin), but I realize that winning a GT might put Contador slightly above in terms of results.

All of this is, of course, assuming you believe Contador had a better season, because it appeared that way in your wording.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Jspear quote:

I think most can at least remember 1 year out. For instance I think most remember that AC won the Giro, RdS, and then was 5th in the Tour. Most also probably remember that Quintana placed 1st in TA, then only managed a 2nd and 4th in the two gt's. Seems pretty obvious to me who was better.

Winning TA is much better than winning RDS on any objective parameter, first of all. And obtaining 2nd in the Tour often, and, looking at the numbers, probably in this case as well, requires better or equal numbers to what you need to win the Giro. 5th in the Tour is, on paper, better than 4th in the Vuelta, but Quintana was way closer to winning or at least getting on the podium (despite being ill in a significant phase of the race). On the other hand, Contador was never any threat in the Tour. So it is hardly obvious who had a better season, in my opinion. Performance-wise I would probably back Quintana (although not by a big margin), but I realize that winning a GT might put Contador slightly above in terms of results.

All of this is, of course, assuming you believe Contador had a better season, because it appeared that way in your wording.

Yes it is, but he should have won much more than that with his traditional "Tour season."

Quintana would not have won the Giro if he raced it the way he did the Tour. On top of that, there was more tting. All that doesn't really matter though. AC still won a gt this year, Quintana didn't.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Yes it is, but he should have won much more than that with his traditional "Tour season."

Quintana would not have won the Giro if he raced it the way he did the Tour. On top of that, there was more tting. All that doesn't really matter though. AC still won a gt this year, Quintana didn't.

Exactly, being 2nd in Tour with no stage victory it is no success, it mean nothing for me, if you really considering Quintana as one of the best riders in this decade, history really do not care about this it is totally failed attempt from Quintana´s side, on the other hands victory on Giro is much above that, and personally I think if Quintana would have ride this year Giro, he would loose it againist Contador but we never will find out

and right TA victory was good one from Quintana that is +1 for him

 

[chiocciolis_calves]

1 - Froome
2 - Pinot
3 - Quintana

DNF - Contador

Gets Vuelta #4.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Yes it is, but he should have won much more than that with his traditional "Tour season."

Quintana would not have won the Giro if he raced it the way he did the Tour. On top of that, there was more tting. All that doesn't really matter though. AC still won a gt this year, Quintana didn't.

Exactly, being 2nd in Tour with no stage victory it is no success, it mean nothing for me, if you really considering Quintana as one of the best riders in this decade, history really do not care about this it is totally failed attempt from Quintana´s side, on the other hands victory on Giro is much above that, and personally I think if Quintana would have ride this year Giro, he would loose it againist Contador but we never will find out

and right TA victory was good one from Quintana that is +1 for him

Well maybe for you.., but it does matter for Quintana, for his team, sponsors, etc, etc. In reality Quintana had a pretty good season. He didn't won the Tour, but he maybe could of, he was close second, with promising signs for the future (he outclimbed Froome in the 3rd week). He was also solid at Vuelta, inspite his illness, won TA, so his season is pretty good in my book. I don't know maybe your expectations are higher. Despite all this, I'd put Contador's season above Nairo's, because I rank Giro win higher than Tour's 2nd spot

 

[malakassis]

Re:

I'm more interested in seeing whether Contador and Froome will face each other before the Tour De France.

One thing is sure, Contador's Giro level is not enough to beat Froome.

but lets not forget froome will most likely be a daddy soon. this wont make him sleep(recover) better in the pre race training. he cant be apart from wife and kid all time u know. fresh daddy nibalis 2015 was much worse than `13 an `14

 

[Miburo]

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

Yes it is, but he should have won much more than that with his traditional "Tour season."

Quintana would not have won the Giro if he raced it the way he did the Tour. On top of that, there was more tting. All that doesn't really matter though. AC still won a gt this year, Quintana didn't.

Exactly, being 2nd in Tour with no stage victory it is no success, it mean nothing for me, if you really considering Quintana as one of the best riders in this decade, history really do not care about this it is totally failed attempt from Quintana´s side, on the other hands victory on Giro is much above that, and personally I think if Quintana would have ride this year Giro, he would loose it againist Contador but we never will find out

and right TA victory was good one from Quintana that is +1 for him

Well maybe for you.., but it does matter for Quintana, for his team, sponsors, etc, etc. In reality Quintana had a pretty good season. He didn't won the Tour, but he maybe could of, he was close second, with promising signs for the future (he outclimbed Froome in the 3rd week). He was also solid at Vuelta, inspite his illness, won TA, so his season is pretty good in my book. I don't know maybe your expectations are higher. Despite all this, I'd put Contador's season above Nairo's, because I rank Giro win higher than Tour's 2nd spot

Anyone outside the big 4 would be happy with Quintana's season, but by his standard it was disappointing. In 2013 he came second in the Tour and he won the Giro in 2014, he needed another GT win this year and ideally the Tour to keep the progression going. In fact, his Tour performance was fairly similar to 2013 when he was on domestique duties in the early stages, which suggests he's stagnated. One would hope that having won a GT would give him confidence to attack more, but he played it very safe and looked like he was racing for 2nd for the first couple of weeks.

Froome, Nibali and Quintana banked all on the Tour. Froome succeeded, Nibali saved his season with a monument win and Quintana has come away largely empty handed, as is always the danger with that policy.

Having said that, Contador is still by definition an underdog to Quintana since they bookies are making him the underdog, same as last year. Everyone loves an underdog so Contador should be happy with that status.