- Mar 10, 2009
- 9,245
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Re: Re:
2014 Vuelta conveniently shows nothing only to those that choose to ignore what transpired. Both riders' form was developing as the event progressed. Both came in recovering from injuries from the Tour. Your argument that Contador recovers from injuries remarkably is a backhanded insult and a slight. Froome recovered fairly well from his injuries as well. By you not mentioning that, it gives you an out in your argument that Froome was at a greater handicap injury wise than Contador, with you basing this on the fact that Contador defeated Froome. In your eyes how else could Contador defeat Froome unless Froome were at less than his best and Contador was in in better form and fully recovered from his injury.
Singer01 said:
2014 Vuelta conveniently shows nothing only to those that choose to ignore what transpired. Both riders' form was developing as the event progressed. Both came in recovering from injuries from the Tour. Your argument that Contador recovers from injuries remarkably is a backhanded insult and a slight. Froome recovered fairly well from his injuries as well. By you not mentioning that, it gives you an out in your argument that Froome was at a greater handicap injury wise than Contador, with you basing this on the fact that Contador defeated Froome. In your eyes how else could Contador defeat Froome unless Froome were at less than his best and Contador was in in better form and fully recovered from his injury.
- Aug 31, 2012
- 7,550
- 3
- 0
Re: Re:
It cannot be the case that the (probabilities implied by the) odds are correct now but you know them to be incorrect in the future. That's a fundamental theorem in probability. If you believe the odds will change in some particular direction, such as Contador being more likely to win at any specific point in the future, then you cannot regard them to be correct now and have coherent beliefs.
Accurately predicting how the odds will move allows you to make money, just like accurately predicting the event itself allows you to. Here is what you can do. Back Contador to win now. Then in the future, if, as you believe, he is more likely to win and the odds get shorter, you bet against him and immediately lock in a profit without the Tour even having started. Free money. If you're right, that is.
LaFlorecita said:
It cannot be the case that the (probabilities implied by the) odds are correct now but you know them to be incorrect in the future. That's a fundamental theorem in probability. If you believe the odds will change in some particular direction, such as Contador being more likely to win at any specific point in the future, then you cannot regard them to be correct now and have coherent beliefs.
Accurately predicting how the odds will move allows you to make money, just like accurately predicting the event itself allows you to. Here is what you can do. Back Contador to win now. Then in the future, if, as you believe, he is more likely to win and the odds get shorter, you bet against him and immediately lock in a profit without the Tour even having started. Free money. If you're right, that is.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,944
- 44,328
- 28,180
Re: Re:
How Porte has a greater chance to win it? Only bigger experience can be argument but with so many mountain stages and MTT where Aru is probably better then him I do not know how you thought it
Porte still can finish better then Aru if Aru will crack but he can not win Tour, Aru have at least slight chance for victory, for Aru will be enough if like 3 riders will have problems at some point and he will be OK but Porte never proved he can be consistent in 3 week race, Aru did several times
Valv.Piti said:
How Porte has a greater chance to win it? Only bigger experience can be argument but with so many mountain stages and MTT where Aru is probably better then him I do not know how you thought it
Porte still can finish better then Aru if Aru will crack but he can not win Tour, Aru have at least slight chance for victory, for Aru will be enough if like 3 riders will have problems at some point and he will be OK but Porte never proved he can be consistent in 3 week race, Aru did several times
Re: Re:
First: people do get paid for making odds for specific discipline (you can't specialize in all of them)
Second: the question was asking why you are not a millionaire yet by outsmarting the bookies since you know that odds are ridiculous
bassano said:Valv.Piti said:
Nobody is going to pay you for make odds cycling only
First: people do get paid for making odds for specific discipline (you can't specialize in all of them)
Second: the question was asking why you are not a millionaire yet by outsmarting the bookies since you know that odds are ridiculous
- Aug 3, 2015
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- 10,688
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Re: Re:
My point being Aru is by far the more consistent rider, while Porte is the rider with the higher ceiling for 2016. Much will obviously chance when the season starts and we dissect each performance, but if I had to choose between Aru and Porte, I would take Porte anyday due to him being able to climb ridiculously well on some days and although it isnt likely he can string 5 of those performances together, it still is a possibility. Aru has yet to show me that. On the other hand, due to Aru being consistent, he has the greater chance of podiuming in my book since Porte is a big joker on that parameter
bassano said:
My point being Aru is by far the more consistent rider, while Porte is the rider with the higher ceiling for 2016. Much will obviously chance when the season starts and we dissect each performance, but if I had to choose between Aru and Porte, I would take Porte anyday due to him being able to climb ridiculously well on some days and although it isnt likely he can string 5 of those performances together, it still is a possibility. Aru has yet to show me that. On the other hand, due to Aru being consistent, he has the greater chance of podiuming in my book since Porte is a big joker on that parameter
Re: Re:
OK, make sense because some of climb Porte done were really impressive like S.Matrin or Pla d Adet (I think it was that) 2013
but Richie being consistent with responsibility being Leader on his shoulders is still question
Valv.Piti said:
OK, make sense because some of climb Porte done were really impressive like S.Matrin or Pla d Adet (I think it was that) 2013
but Richie being consistent with responsibility being Leader on his shoulders is still question
- Aug 12, 2012
- 6,996
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It is a good one for Quintana. The tipycal forst week i almost missing, so Quintana will be at his best potential not just in the last week, but in the first mountain stages.
Thes second TT is more or less a mountain TT.
The first one has some climbs as well.
Lot of mountain stages.
Porte is not more with Froome.
But anyway Froome still my favourite.
The ITT are hilly, good for Contador, he could be podium, but I dont think so.
Thes second TT is more or less a mountain TT.
The first one has some climbs as well.
Lot of mountain stages.
Porte is not more with Froome.
But anyway Froome still my favourite.
The ITT are hilly, good for Contador, he could be podium, but I dont think so.
- Sep 8, 2009
- 15,306
- 3
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Re:
don't be silly, many people here make their living out of this and i've heard that some made even a fortune from cycling betting.
Valv.Piti said:
don't be silly, many people here make their living out of this and i've heard that some made even a fortune from cycling betting.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
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- Jul 27, 2009
- 6,612
- 2,508
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Re: Re:
the only thing it showed was that 2 people who had recently been injured raced each other, and were still miles better than everyone else. in no way shape or form did it show which of the 2 was the best at their peak. if you think it does show that, good for you.
Jspear said:
the only thing it showed was that 2 people who had recently been injured raced each other, and were still miles better than everyone else. in no way shape or form did it show which of the 2 was the best at their peak. if you think it does show that, good for you.
- Feb 23, 2014
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Re: Re:
It shows what they are like at similar levels. Both crashed out of the Tour (an argument can be made that Froome had even more time to recover because he crashed out earlier), both had injuries to heal from (the argument can be made that AC's comeback was even greater because he had a leg injury - more essential for riding a bike than a hand). AC came out on top. Does that show us who is the best when both are in top form? No but I think it's a good indicator. That and the 2014 Dauphine are the best we have to look at. From the CD we also can conclude that AC can keep up with Froome on those crazy accelerations. From the 2013 and 2015 Tour we can conclude that Froome can't keep those accelerations going for more than a couple days. I think AC has proven to have better recovery over the years...my guess is you'd disagree. Froome is going to have to ride even stronger and have a longer period of top form to beat AC if he comes in with his 2014 form.
Singer01 said:
It shows what they are like at similar levels. Both crashed out of the Tour (an argument can be made that Froome had even more time to recover because he crashed out earlier), both had injuries to heal from (the argument can be made that AC's comeback was even greater because he had a leg injury - more essential for riding a bike than a hand). AC came out on top. Does that show us who is the best when both are in top form? No but I think it's a good indicator. That and the 2014 Dauphine are the best we have to look at. From the CD we also can conclude that AC can keep up with Froome on those crazy accelerations. From the 2013 and 2015 Tour we can conclude that Froome can't keep those accelerations going for more than a couple days. I think AC has proven to have better recovery over the years...my guess is you'd disagree. Froome is going to have to ride even stronger and have a longer period of top form to beat AC if he comes in with his 2014 form.
Re: Re:
it shows the only thing - ac is a better rider when both on top form / simialar form under the Vuelta 2014 circumstances, in september 2014, at that interval of time. Does it show ac being a stronger rider on equal form today, in 2016 or in general? no. and the same relates to froome with his 2013&2015 tours. any suchlike generalizations are very deceptive.Jspear said:
I'm not really so sure about Contadors team. It always seems like sometimes they are good, and sometimes they are bad... Not very realiable.
It's always "If Kreuziger, Majka, Rodgers and Trofimov reach their usual level, it'll be a strong team", but for some reason they almost never do. Only in 2014 maybe. I hope that Kreuziger, Rodgers and Trofimov follows the same schedule as Contador all year, and doesn't ride the Giro with Majka.
It's always "If Kreuziger, Majka, Rodgers and Trofimov reach their usual level, it'll be a strong team", but for some reason they almost never do. Only in 2014 maybe. I hope that Kreuziger, Rodgers and Trofimov follows the same schedule as Contador all year, and doesn't ride the Giro with Majka.
- Apr 16, 2009
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I am quite surprise that Contador has so many votes. I guess this is a Contador's oriented fans forum. I can understand why. Maybe they should put a lot of money on him. There is a potential to make some money.
Having said that, I hope next Tour doesn't become a parade of Contador's fans crying about the route, the Sky train, Movistar tactics just because their beloved Contador fails at his performance.
Having said that, I hope next Tour doesn't become a parade of Contador's fans crying about the route, the Sky train, Movistar tactics just because their beloved Contador fails at his performance.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,944
- 44,328
- 28,180
Re:
Because fans only see arguments in their favour. Froome fans see 2015 as a perfect example of peak vs peak. Contador fans look at the 2014 Vuelta to get an indication. Then again, Contador is gonna be 2 years older, but we do see Valverde reaching new peaks at the age of 35.
We're all biased, and biased me would think the unbiased evidence is pretty even and slightly in favour of Contador
Escarabajo said:
Because fans only see arguments in their favour. Froome fans see 2015 as a perfect example of peak vs peak. Contador fans look at the 2014 Vuelta to get an indication. Then again, Contador is gonna be 2 years older, but we do see Valverde reaching new peaks at the age of 35.
We're all biased, and biased me would think the unbiased evidence is pretty even and slightly in favour of Contador
- Apr 12, 2015
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I'm more interested in seeing whether Contador and Froome will face each other before the Tour De France.
One thing is sure, Contador's Giro level is not enough to beat Froome.
One thing is sure, Contador's Giro level is not enough to beat Froome.
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