Who wins the 2016 Tour?

[dacooley]

Re:

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

how many riders in propeloton deserve to be cheered for then if quintana does not? you are being very strict to anyone but bertie.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

When they've both ridden as captains, Quintana has a 2-1 record against Contador. The 1 for Contador was when Quintana crashed out of the Vuelta.

Add to the equation that that Contador hasn't contended for a Tour win since 2010 and that Quintana is still improving while Contador probably isn't anymore

Edit: Also, the bookies have Quintana with approximately 30% chance of winning, Contador with 15%.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

When they've both ridden as captains, Quintana has a 2-1 record against Contador. The 1 for Contador was when Quintana crashed out of the Vuelta.

Add to the equation that that Contador hasn't contended for a Tour win since 2010 and that Quintana is still improving while Contador probably isn't anymore.

That is right, but it is hard to compare Contador after harg Giro with completelly fresh Quintana like this year, and 2013 tour that was not fully power Contador
For me it is even strange that Quintana is so much overrated vs Aru for example, in Giro 2014 only difference between them was stelvio gap, they did quite same MTT, Aru was better on montecampione, Quintana on Zoncolan and since that Aru performance went much higher, like this year in Vuelta he liquidated Quintana so easily (but it is same comparsion like Contador tour and Quintana Tour this year) and even their TT skills are not so different, Aru is still worse but not too much
and still Quintana odds are like 1/3 and Aru 1/15-20

 

[jens_attacks]

quintana doesn't stand a chance against a healthy contador. alberto will crush him in the pyrenees anyway, no biggie.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

quintana doesn't stand a chance against a healthy contador. alberto will crush him in the pyrenees anyway, no biggie.

Yeah, Quintana sucks early on, he will even be crushed by Andrey Zeits on +7% in the first and second week.

... I will be extremely surprised to see Contador to surpass Quintana next year, but who knows.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

When they've both ridden as captains, Quintana has a 2-1 record against Contador. The 1 for Contador was when Quintana crashed out of the Vuelta.

Add to the equation that that Contador hasn't contended for a Tour win since 2010 and that Quintana is still improving while Contador probably isn't anymore

Edit: Also, the bookies have Quintana with approximately 30% chance of winning, Contador with 15%.

So you don't consider the Giro to have had any bearing on AC's Tour performance? Really who cares what the bookies are saying. They are obviously basing things off their Tour performances which is stupid.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

quintana doesn't stand a chance against a healthy contador. alberto will crush him in the pyrenees anyway, no biggie.

Yeah, Quintana sucks early on, he will even be crushed by Andrey Zeits on +7% in the first and second week.

... I will be extremely surprised to see Contador to surpass Quintana next year, but who knows.

Andrey Zeits < Alberto Contador

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

When they've both ridden as captains, Quintana has a 2-1 record against Contador. The 1 for Contador was when Quintana crashed out of the Vuelta.

Add to the equation that that Contador hasn't contended for a Tour win since 2010 and that Quintana is still improving while Contador probably isn't anymore

Edit: Also, the bookies have Quintana with approximately 30% chance of winning, Contador with 15%.

So you don't consider the Giro to have had any bearing on AC's Tour performance? Really who cares what the bookies are saying. They are obviously basing things off their Tour performances which is stupid.

not really, they rather base their odds mostly on general impression about riders' strength over the season as a whole.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

When they've both ridden as captains, Quintana has a 2-1 record against Contador. The 1 for Contador was when Quintana crashed out of the Vuelta.

Add to the equation that that Contador hasn't contended for a Tour win since 2010 and that Quintana is still improving while Contador probably isn't anymore

Edit: Also, the bookies have Quintana with approximately 30% chance of winning, Contador with 15%.

So you don't consider the Giro to have had any bearing on AC's Tour performance? Really who cares what the bookies are saying. They are obviously basing things off their Tour performances which is stupid.

No they don't. The best way of assessing a riders chances in a race is to look at the bookmaker's odds. Sure, they make mistakes but they know more about cycling than the vast majority of us forum users.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Contador is never an underdog to quintana LMAO

If both are at their best contador will crush him. And i'm not sure how anyone can cheer for a rider like quintana, has no balls, pathetic how he gave away the tour.

When they've both ridden as captains, Quintana has a 2-1 record against Contador. The 1 for Contador was when Quintana crashed out of the Vuelta.

Add to the equation that that Contador hasn't contended for a Tour win since 2010 and that Quintana is still improving while Contador probably isn't anymore

Edit: Also, the bookies have Quintana with approximately 30% chance of winning, Contador with 15%.

So you don't consider the Giro to have had any bearing on AC's Tour performance? Really who cares what the bookies are saying. They are obviously basing things off their Tour performances which is stupid.

No it's not. The Tour in 2015 provided most of the most important information we have for predicting the Tour in 2016. AC doing the Giro matters, of course. Had he not done the Giro and performed the same, he would be much less likely (yes, even less than the ~15% or whatever he has) to win the next Tour.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

So you don't consider the Giro to have had any bearing on AC's Tour performance? Really who cares what the bookies are saying. They are obviously basing things off their Tour performances which is stupid.

Agree agree agree, but there's no way you'll get this through some forum users' skulls, they get a hard-on from bookmakers' odds best ignore them

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

So you don't consider the Giro to have had any bearing on AC's Tour performance? Really who cares what the bookies are saying. They are obviously basing things off their Tour performances which is stupid.

Agree agree agree, but there's no way you'll get this through some forum users' skulls, they get a hard-on from bookmakers' odds best ignore them

No, if you want a discussion you better ignore posts like those.

 

[SeriousSam]

There seems to be a persistently negative association between accepting bookmaker odds as the most predictive signal of future sporting events and one's support for certain riders. Most interesting, though hardly surprising.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

There seems to be a persistently negative association between accepting bookmaker odds as the most predictive signal of future sporting events and one's support for certain riders. Most interesting, though hardly surprising.

Especially not surprising considering it is in regards to Contador and the user is LF, had that discussion a week ago as well, but the bookmakers are stupid anyways... yet, poeple like that somehow dont wanna abuse the fact that they have close to zero knowledge on cycling and are just throwing numbers around.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

There seems to be a persistently negative association between accepting bookmaker odds as the most predictive signal of future sporting events and one's support for certain riders. Most interesting, though hardly surprising.

Nope. I can understand why bookies would put someone like Froome ahead of AC even though I personally think AC can/will beat him. Placing Quintana ahead of AC is absurd. It can't possibly be grounded in anything other than the last time they raced against each other this year.

 

[Escarabajo]

This year the Bookies put Quintana as the second choice because Contador did the Giro. Had he not done the Tour they could have probably put him second to Froome. So you are telling me that they took the Giro into account this year and they are not taking it into account for next year?

Is there a remote chance that they are taking other factors into play?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

This year the Bookies put Quintana as the second choice because Contador did the Giro. Had he not done the Tour they could have probably put him second to Froome. So you are telling me that they took the Giro into account this year and they are not taking it into account for next year?

Is there a remote chance that they are taking other factors into play?

There are obviously many factors into play. The route (which IMO favors Quintana, but is very good for Contador as well), age, recent performances etc. Also, Im not entirely sure the bookies would have put Contador 2nd had he not done the Giro, but that we really dont know.

The fact of the matter is Quintana, objectively, overwhelmingly is the 2nd biggest favorite ahead of Contador. I know many people in here are super biased, but I dont know how you can argue that the reason for that is that bookies are just *** stupid since that would be the perfect opportunity to drop your 8-16 jobs and milk the *** out of them, yet, you guys dont seem to do that for whatever reasons

 

[LaFlorecita]

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

 

[Valv.Piti]

But these odds are just way, way off.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

But the thing is that we haven't seen AC in topform since 2011.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

But these odds are just way, way off.

I stated clearly that it is my opinion.

But the thing is that we haven't seen AC in topform since 2011.

I disagree.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

But the thing is that we haven't seen AC in topform since 2011.

That's not true. 2014 was the last time we saw AC in topform, although his form was very good in the beginning of this years Giro too. IMO

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

But the thing is that we haven't seen AC in topform since 2011.

That's not true. 2014 was the last time we saw AC in topform, although his form was very good in the beginning of this years Giro too. IMO

Right, I might have worded myself badly. We haven't seen AC in topform in a GT since 2011.

 

[bassano]

Re:

OK to clarify my position on bookie odds
I feel bookmakers look at the situation as it stands now. They know the route, they know how riders performed recently, so they know the favorites. Looking at this year's Tour, we know how the favorites for next year compared. We can guess how the form and racing ability they showed will translate into performance on next year's parcours.
I however do not agree that we can use them to put a likelihood on certain outcomes. The riders will not be in the same kind of shape as they were this year. For example, I think Froome could be influenced by the birth of his child, and I think Contador will have a better preparation and thus be at the start in top form.
If FCQ on top shape, purely based on physical abilities, I would rate their chances as
Froome 40%
Contador 40%
Quintana 20%
Simply because I believe there is very little between them uphill, so the ITT km would be decisive. However, also considering tactical nous, team strength and consistency throughout the 3 weeks, (again providing all are in their best shape) I believe Contador has the best chances to win, followed by Froome by a slight margin, then Quintana slightly further back.

Actually odds did nto change at all after route was known so there you know how they are making it

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Actually odds did nto change at all after route was known so there you know how they are making it

So it's solely based on this year's results. Thanks for the info