• The Cycling News forum is still looking to add volunteer moderators with. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

Why (and How) Bert Should Appeal

Page 6 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Dr. Maserati said:
Well, who said that?
I don't remember that argument, but regardless I do remember saying this case was all about the Clen, which it was.

The blood-doping scenario was only presented (and entertained by CAS) as it related to a theory on how the clenbuterol was found in ACs system.


You can keep asking but the answer never changes - Ashenden did testify, however WADA were denied an opportunity to recall him to discuss the idea of phthalate-free bags.

And WADA did not 'tweet' their annoyance, it was a text message (probably from someone involved) - I am sure all sides found the whole process annoying.

if I'm correct, the tweet came after Ashenden was denied his 2nd appearance.
Perhaps the WADA-guy twittered it because he didn't see any apparent reason as to why Ashenden should not be given that 2nd appearance.

You say the answer never changes, but what's the answer? Why was he denied? He's a recognized specialist.

And what IF the transfusion theory had been approved? It would have meant a double offence, which, in turn, could well have meant a double penalty, couldn't it?
One need not dig deep to understand why AC's camp would have wanted to exclude Ashenden from appearing a second time.
 

Dr. Maserati

BANNED
Jun 19, 2009
13,250
1
0
Visit site
sniper said:
if I'm correct, the tweet came after Ashenden was denied his 2nd appearance.
Perhaps the WADA-guy twittered it because he didn't see any apparent reason as to why Ashenden should not be given that 2nd appearance.
It was not 'tweeted'.
I am sure WADA were aghast that Ashenden was not allowed to be brought back again. This was CAS gig and they were following their own procedure.

sniper said:
You say the answer never changes, but what's the answer? Why was he denied? He's a recognized specialist.
The answer is within the CAS decision - no. 405.
But when you keep asking the wrong question

sniper said:
And what IF the transfusion theory had been approved? It would have meant a double offence, which, in turn, could well have meant a double penalty, couldn't it?
No.

sniper said:
One need not dig deep to understand why AC's camp would have wanted to exclude Ashenden from appearing a second time.
I understand completely why AC and his team did not want Ashenden to testify (again) - I do not understand why you keep digging it up though.
 
Well, who said that?

I did. I brought up the possibility of two doping offenses a year ago. And he could have been convicted of two offenses, and received a much longer ban. The WADA rules, which I quoted here last year, clearly allow for this. It didn’t work out that way, I and I think that part of the decision was correct, but it was a possibility.

Thanks for the link, Gooner. Two really interesting points from the Rendell blog that Gooner’s story linked to:

Contador's expert haematologist is demonstrably mistaken elsewhere in his testimony regarding clenbuterol doses, mainly because he doesn't realise the drugs is used intravenously, as well as orally (paragraph 414). All he needed to do was leave the laboratory for a minute and read a blog or two written by bodybuilders who use the product (paragraph 417a).

So the claim is that nanogram doses of CB can be effective if they are given intravenously. I’m not convinced of that, but the more general idea is correct: a drug like CB can be effective at a lower dose if it is given IV rather than orally. And as I noted in my previous post, an IV dose of a given amount of drug results in much higher blood levels. Thus the Contador argument that he would have had to take several 100 ug of the drug to get the level in blood necessary for transfused blood to give the urine values detected is rebutted. I think Rendell is correct here.

If nanogram amounts of CB IV are effective, one could argue that Bert took CB intentionally some time between his negative test on July 20 and his positive test on July 21. This now becomes a fourth “possibility” that could have been put into play. However, this can be refuted, again, by my previous argument: if he had taken enough CB IV to give the detected urine values, a blood test would have detected considerably more than 1 pg/ml.

To repeat, if the 1 pg/ml value for blood is correct, I think it rules out transfusion or any other type of intravenous administration of CB. I believe this argument is not simply strong, but compelling. There simply is no way that one can take a dose of CB large enough to give the reported urine values that will result in a blood level of 1 pg/ml.

So this further supports the argument against any sanction. There seem to be four possibilities accounting for how CB got into Bert’s system, two of which can be definitively ruled out: transfusion of contaminated blood, and direct IV administration of CB. This leaves just two possibilities, contaminated meat and contaminated supplement. The first is not sanctionable, and my argument is that if the supplement was contaminated, it was at a level that should also not be sanctionable.

In fact, there is no evidence I’m aware of that CB has ever been found in a supplement at a level above the NZVT standard. All the published studies of supplement analysis I have seen have failed to find any CB contamination. CB was found in supplements listed by Hardy, but at one lab (ADR) that has a LOD of 10 ng/g (ten times more sensitive than NZVT), and at another lab (Equine) that has an even lower LOD. It was very clear that the amount of CB detected by both labs was far below the amount that would have been required to account for Hardy’s urine level (4 ng/ml). All of this further supports the contention that if it was contaminated supplement, Bert was not at fault. He can point to abundant scientific evidence that has failed to find CB contamination in supplements at a level that could account for his positive.

This brings me to the second interesting Rendell quote:

Article 21 of the UCI's anti-doping regulations, which explicitly warns riders that they must 'refrain from using any substance foodstuff, food supplement or drink of which they do not know the composition ... the composition indicated on a product is not always complete.'

If a supplement contains less than a standard like 100 ng/g of CB, which it almost certainly would have in Bert’s case, then its composition is “known”. This is how “known” is defined—any contaminants exist below a certain agreed-upon standard. Scientific analysis can never prove that a supplement contains no contamination whatsoever (a major point made by the article Gooner linked to). Analysis can only say that there is no contamination above a certain concentration. This is all that a rule like Article 21 can possibly hold an athlete to.

Again, the argument is analogous to the one that could have been successfully used for meat contamination. If Bert’s urine level had been lower, he could have argued that the CB could have come from meat that passed the Euro standard. He would have gotten off, because such meat has no “known” CB. It is not and cannot be his responsibility.
 
Mar 18, 2009
775
0
0
Visit site
Contador should appeal by manning up and giving a complete history of his drug use. He should start by saying "These are the drugs I took when I rode for Manolo Saiz, these are the drugs I took when I rode for Johann Bruyneel, these are the drugs I took when I rode for Astana, and these are the drugs I took until last month when I was riding for Riis and Saxo Bank." He should detail the amounts, the times, the doctors, and the suppliers. He should bring the whole house down. That would be very appealing.
 
Although personally I wouild like to see the whole thing stop right here and let things rest from now on, I can see two good reasons why from a strategical point of view why AC should appeal.

1) He can't lose. With that I mean is that he has and will keep his six month effective ban and he already has lost two GT-results in 2010 and 2011 but it can't get worse than that. At best he gets his two GT-wins back and will still be on the bike to ride the Vuelta 2012 (and probably win it).
2) If he really feels he is innocent, he should fight it all the way and in every which way he can. I know I would if was really innocent.

Regards
GJ
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Dr. Maserati said:
It was not 'tweeted'.
I am sure WADA were aghast that Ashenden was not allowed to be brought back again. This was CAS gig and they were following their own procedure.

The answer is within the CAS decision - no. 405.
But when you keep asking the wrong question

No.

I understand completely why AC and his team did not want Ashenden to testify (again) - I do not understand why you keep digging it up though.

Me? The Guardian's sports journalist you mean.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/feb/16/doping-cycling-alberto-contador-science
 
Jan 10, 2012
451
0
0
Visit site
sniper said:

Not letting testify Ashenden again (which was a correct decision by the panel) didn't even influence the case. Firstly, Paul Scott gave the answers Ashenden would have given (specifically the existence of different kinds of bags and the fact that plasma can be stored in a DEHP-free bag) and secondly because CAS simply excepted the theory.

Digging it up again, therefore, is not only unnecessary it's also a sign that the person did not read the award very well...
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Nilsson said:
Not letting testify Ashenden again (which was a correct decision by the panel) didn't even influence the case. Firstly, Paul Scott gave the answers Ashenden would have given (specifically the existence of different kinds of bags and the fact that plasma can be stored in a DEHP-free bag) and secondly because CAS simply excepted the theory.

Digging it up again, therefore, is not only unnecessary it's also a sign that the person did not read the award very well...

WADA's hypothesis was that Dirty used an old school bloodbag causing the DEHP spike, and a phthalate-free bloodbag from which the CLEN spike resulted.
However, for unsatisfying reasons ("unfair":rolleyes::rolleyes:), CAS denied Ashenden to raise the issue of phthalate-free bloodbags.
WADA requested the opportunity to address questions to its expert Dr
Ashenden in relation to the issue of the possible use of phthalate-free bags for transfusion
of plasma. The Athlete opposed this request mainly on the ground that this issue was not dealt with by
Mr Ashenden in his expert opinion.The panel decided to deny the request. (...)

addressing questions to him on that issue at such a late stage is not allowed in principle under
Article R56 of the CAS Code and in this case would be unfair.

unfair my ***...

This issue would have completely invalidated AC's claim that
transfusions will always result in a
spike of plasticisers.

Compliments to AC's lawyers for avoiding Ashenden to raise the issue. Nothing to hide.:rolleyes:
 
Jan 10, 2012
451
0
0
Visit site
sniper said:
WADA's hypothesis was that Dirty used an old school bloodbag causing the DEHP spike, and a phthalate-free bloodbag from which the CLEN spike resulted

Can you even read?

Scott gave the same answers Ashenden would have given (yes, plasma can be stored in a DEHP-free bag) and CAS, therefore, accepted the possibility of WADA's theory. Hence, hearing Ashenden again was not necessary to achieve what WADA wanted, and not hearing Ashenden again, therefore, didn't influence the case at all...
 

Dr. Maserati

BANNED
Jun 19, 2009
13,250
1
0
Visit site
sniper said:
in most of your posts you sound like one of AC's lawyers, not like someone interested in the truth.

Well, what is the "truth"?
You appear very happy to ignore the reasons given by CAS as to why they did not allow Ashenden return to offer more direct testimony.

It was procedural - a pretty clever objection by ACs legal team using the agreed rules.
Nothing more, nothing less.
 
Wallace said:
Contador should appeal by manning up and giving a complete history of his drug use. He should start by saying "These are the drugs I took when I rode for Manolo Saiz, these are the drugs I took when I rode for Johann Bruyneel, these are the drugs I took when I rode for Astana, and these are the drugs I took until last month when I was riding for Riis and Saxo Bank." He should detail the amounts, the times, the doctors, and the suppliers. He should bring the whole house down. That would be very appealing.

The template has been set where there are no repercussions for organized team doping for the big players-director sportifs, doctors and drug suppliers. Contador knows that he has to keep his mouth shut and come back like nothing happened.

Even even law enforcement officials cannot do anything. Operation Puerto, the Armstrong Investigation-the opportunity was there for these doping rings to get dismantled and either nothing happened or they went after one or two riders with meaningless sanctions.

Putting the onus on one individual rider is expecting too much and is patently unfair. How easy is it to marginalize a single rider and paint him as bitter and harboring grudges? We've been down this road before, and riders are looking at the results and have decided coming out with explosive accusations is a waste of time.

And I don't blame them.
 
Ten Little Indians

GJB123 said:
Although personally I wouild like to see the whole thing stop right here and let things rest from now on, I can see two good reasons why from a strategical point of view why AC should appeal.

1) He can't lose. With that I mean is that he has and will keep his six month effective ban and he already has lost two GT-results in 2010 and 2011 but it can't get worse than that. At best he gets his two GT-wins back and will still be on the bike to ride the Vuelta 2012 (and probably win it).
2) If he really feels he is innocent, he should fight it all the way and in every which way he can. I know I would if was really innocent.

Regards
GJ

I agree pretty much with everything here. For reasons I discussed, I think Bert transfused, while accepting that the level of evidence is not sufficient for a sanction on that basis. So it appears that the sanction he got for contaminated supplements probably was just, even if for what I regard as the wrong reason.

Bert may be a doper, but I think he has shown a lot of class—in 2009, when LA was his teammate; last year, when he came into the TDF probably not at 100%, questionably lost time in a crash followed by another crash (rules or no rules, I still think he got shafted by that decision), and still made no excuses; and following this decision, where at least he hasn’t sounded bitter or whiny. I would like to think his character is such that if he really did transfuse, he won’t pursue this any further. He did get several breaks: no long layoff; got less than the full two years, allowing him to ride the Vuelta; and can claim his positive resulted from carelessness or bad luck, not intentional doping.

Still, the final decision CAS made is profoundly troubling to me. Part of it, as I’ve discussed here, is because it makes no sense to sanction an athlete for taking what amounts to an approved supplement. But it goes deeper than that. None of the possible explanations looks at all likely. To recap:

1) the probability of contaminated meat appears less than one in ten thousand;
2) transfusion of blood containing CB is ruled out with very high confidence if the revised blood value is correct
3) CB contamination of supplements is very rare. Hardy is apparently the only known case, and Catlin and other researchers had to do a lot of testing even to find traces that could not come close to accounting for Hardy’s levels. Another independent laboratory could find no contamination in any of the supplements it tested.
4) Intentional doping with CB is ruled out by the negative on July 20, assuming that sample was tested at Cologne. Even if turns out, contrary to the discussion we had here before, that it wasn’t, it seems quite unlikely that Bert could have taken CB some time before his first positive at Cologne. To account for the urine levels on July 21 and following days, he would have had to take a pretty high dose, and avoid positives in a period encompassing the first two weeks of the Tour, and maybe days preceding it. And again, his blood values rule out any form of intravenous administration. Oral use at amounts accounting for the later urine values would almost certainly trigger a positive, even at less sensitive detection limits.

I’m reminded of Agatha Christie’s famous mystery, Ten Little Indians, when all the murder suspects were themselves murdered, leaving…no one.

Usually in a situation like this we throw up our hands and say, the only person who will ever know for sure is the athlete himself. But the final irony here is that Bert may be just as mystified as the rest of us. Even if he transfused, he may know for a certainty that he never took CB intentionally, and that (as he claimed at the CAS hearing) he never took any supplements during the period when CB must have entered his system.

What then? We might be left only with Nazi frogmen.
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
I'm failing to see the mystery, MI.

It is almost certain he did take it intentionally, after the Dauphine, as claimed in the HUMO interview (not sure why you continue to ignore it).
It also explains the lacking hairtest.
So, in keeping with WADA, I'm assuming two transfusions with two different types of bloodbags:
one CLEN-free, but phthalate-rich,
a second CLEN-tainted, but phthalate-free

No mystery.

The only question remaining is what PEDs was AC on when he beat the polygraph.
 
Jan 10, 2012
451
0
0
Visit site
sniper said:
I'm failing to see the mystery, MI.

It is almost certain he did take it intentionally, after the Dauphine, as claimed in the HUMO interview (not sure why you continue to ignore it).
It also explains the lacking hairtest.
So, in keeping with WADA, I'm assuming two transfusions with two different types of bloodbags:
one CLEN-free, but phthalate-rich,
a second CLEN-tainted, but phthalate-free

No mystery.

The only question remaining is what PEDs was AC on when he beat the polygraph.

It's not that difficult, Sniper. If the numbers are right, it's impossible a transfusion caused the clen positive..

With only 1 pg/ml in a blood sample in the morning, and 50 pg/ml hours later in a urine sample. It rules out any form of intravenous administration and points to digestion of some kind of contaminated food substance as the origin of clenbuterol...
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
Thanks for that clarification.

But you do realize that what you are claiming (AC doing a transfusion and also unintentionally ingesting CLEN on restday of Tour), in terms of chance calculation, is not only absurd, it's close to impossible? It requires quite a stretch of imagination.
The HUMO-scenario, on the other hand, is pretty straightforward.

As for the numbers you present, I'm not able to judge them, they could result from incorrect measurements, I dunno.
But they need not be incorrect. Perhaps the conclusions drawn from them (i.e. the way we interpret them) are incorrect?
 
sniper said:
Thanks for that clarification.

But you do realize that what you are claiming (AC doing a transfusion and also unintentionally ingesting CLEN on restday of Tour), in terms of chance calculation, is not only absurd, it's close to impossible? It requires quite a stretch of imagination.
The HUMO-scenario, on the other hand, is pretty straightforward.

As for the numbers you present, I'm not able to judge them, they could result from incorrect measurements, I dunno.
But they need not be incorrect. Perhaps the conclusions drawn from them (i.e. the way we interpret them) are incorrect?

You are incredible, you do know that? People here explained quite extensively why the contaminated transfusion is impossible, CAS ruled it very unlikely and you confessed to not understanding any of the science behind it. Yet you keep insisting that you know the "HUMO"-story must be the correct one. Ignorance is bliss.

Regards
GJ
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
yes, but gjb, i'm just doing chance calculations here. if you'd join me in that, you'd find that any scenario other than a transfusion scenario is incapable of accounting for the phthalate positive and the CLEN positive so close after one another. it would be a one out of million chance.
sure, bertie was unlucky, but that unlucky?

your scenario = mystery

HUMO/WADA scenario = plausible.

as regards the data: neither you, nor Nillson, nor MI are capable of explaining them. why would i pretend to be able to explain them? probably there is something wrong either with the accuracy of the data, or with the accuracy of our interpretation skills.

and GJB, next time, please make more explicit whether (and why) you think the WADA and UCI were putting their money on an impossible hypothesis.
 
sniper said:
yes, but gjb, i'm just doing chance calculations here. if you'd join me in that, you'd find that any scenario other than a transfusion scenario is incapable of accounting for the phthalate positive and the CLEN positive so close after one another. it would be a one out of million chance.
sure, bertie was unlucky, but that unlucky?

your scenario = mystery

HUMO/WADA scenario = plausible.

as regards the data: neither you, nor Nillson, nor MI are capable of explaining them. why would i pretend to be able to explain them? probably there is something wrong either with the accuracy of the data, or with the accuracy of our interpretation skills.

and GJB, next time, please make more explicit whether (and why) you think the WADA and UCI were putting their money on an impossible hypothesis.

Sure, just ignore the facts or say they are wrong when they don't match with your preconceived ideas. But since you seem to have statistics all under control, please enlighten me how unlikely the events are. You seem to be the expert.

You are a joke! :rolleyes:

Regards
GJ
 
Jan 10, 2012
451
0
0
Visit site
sniper said:
and GJB, next time, please make more explicit whether (and why) you think the WADA and UCI were putting their money on an impossible hypothesis.

Because they were obliged to (on a balance of probabilities, and by Swiss law). There were some smoking guns for a transfusion, so they attached the clen positive to that. There's no doubt you can make a good theory out of it. Hence, you will always stick with it (no matter what). Nevertheless, there are several reasons that make it unlikely.

Firstly, the assumptions you have to make (incredible mistakes and an almost impossible amount of luck Contador must have had; or an accomplice donor with either Down Syndrome or malicious motives) and the difficult pharmacokinetics.

Secondly, something apparently everyone oversaw, had to be corrected in the CAS-award, and MI picked up in an absolutely fantastic way, is the 1 pg/ml in the blood sample. If that number is true, which seems to be so (since it is corrected), it means there is no way a possible transfusion and the clen positive are related. Yes, if that is the case, Contador was unbelievably unlucky indeed...
 
yes, but gjb, i'm just doing chance calculations here. if you'd join me in that, you'd find that any scenario other than a transfusion scenario is incapable of accounting for the phthalate positive and the CLEN positive so close after one another. it would be a one out of million chance.

This is a fair point, and why I favored transfusion until the blood value became public. I don’t find the arguments against transfusion that CAS accepted that compelling. They can all be refuted by scenarios that seem to me much more likely than contamination.

But the blood value is another story. I just don’t see any way to reconcile that value with the urine values, for transfusion. The discrepancy is too large, and many of the conditionals one might use to qualify arguments about pharmacokinetics don’t apply, because it isn’t the absolute levels that matter here, but the relationship between levels in blood and those in urine. That relationship would be unaffected by most factors that might affect, for example, the relationship between dose and either one of those levels.

The timing of transfusion, as indicated by DEHP, and the CB positive is a good point. But how coincidental would it be? If Bert took supplements, I assume he would take them in larger quantities during the Tour, and particularly during the latter, climbing stages of the Tour, so he would be much more likely to ingest enough of a contaminant to test positive then. Also, if he did transfuse on that second rest day, he might well have transfused on the first rest day as well. So if he transfused twice in a three week period, during which time he was taking supplements regularly, it is not so improbable that he would test positive for a contaminant within one day of those transfusions (a total of six possible days out of twenty-three, and more likely fourteen if we consider the latter, harder stages of the Tour).

Also, I don’t think we yet know for certain that the negative on July 20 was at Cologne? If it wasn’t, he could have ingested CB orally some time before that. It is unlikely the ingestion was intentional, because for the amounts he would have to take to be effective, the numbers don’t work. He almost certainly would have tested positive at some point along the way, even at a relatively insensitive LOD. But for a contaminated supplement, he could have had very low values that would have slipped through just about any testing outside of the LOD available at Cologne.
 
Oct 16, 2010
19,912
2
0
Visit site
GJB123 said:
Sure, just ignore the facts or say they are wrong when they don't match with your preconceived ideas. But since you seem to have statistics all under control, please enlighten me how unlikely the events are. You seem to be the expert.

You are a joke! :rolleyes:

Regards
GJ

De Mondenard in Lemonde against contaminated supplement theory:

http://www.lemonde.fr/sport/article...e-du-tas-n-est-pas-credible_1643452_3242.html

From the comment section:
Seule reste-donc la thèse de l'auto-transfusion... Mondenard a-t-il peur d'aller jusqu'au bout de son idée ?

How ignorant he must be.;)
 
Actually you have linked an article where Mondenard says he doesn't believe the contaminated supplement theory holds because Contador declared he used the same ones during the entire TdF and wasn't positive before the AAF. Basically the same defence AC used for not agreeing with supplement-theory. This was covered already quite extensively by Python, MI and Nilsson and lot's of other people if you would have cared to read their contributions instead of immersing yourself in triumphalism. He even goed as far as to say that even the steak-theory holds more chance of being true. However (and even though my French is lousy) at no pint does he state that transfusion is the most likely source. He even states that he feels the penalty was way too high given the low concentrations found.

This quote you use:

Seule reste-donc la thèse de l'auto-transfusion... Mondenard a-t-il peur d'aller jusqu'au bout de son idée ?

That quote cannot be attibuted to Mondenard but is from someone who comments on his article. It is just one guy's opinion and yes, that person seems to be as ingnorant as you are.

Regards
GJ
 
Thanks for the link, Sniper. Mondenard, like most people, seems to be unaware of the work of Don Catlin and others, which has shown that the level of contamination in supplements is extremely variable, even within the same batch. So the argument that a contaminated supplement would have resulted in a positive test earlier in the Tour is not valid. If it were valid, one could settle the question easily by testing the same brands that were used by Bert right now.

Also, the point I made in my previous post is relevant here. The odds of ingesting enough of a contaminant to test positive increase with the amount of supplement ingested. In the latter stages of the Tour, Bert may have been ingesting more.

Interesting also that Mondenard points out how difficult it is for athletes to know what is in supplements, but misses the really key argument that Bert’s level indicated that if a supplement was the cause it would have been clean by most antidoping standards. This is the point he should be pushing in his statement.

As for transfusion, just to go over the argument again very briefly: A blood level of 1 pg/ml puts an upper limit on the amount of CB transfused at about 10 ng. From Bert's four positive urine tests, we know he passed a minimum of 100-150 ng from his body.

There remains the problem that Bert himself says he took no supplements during the period that CB must have entered his system. Was he lying? Here is what he said, according to CAS:

467. In his witness statement, Mr Contador declares that he did not take any supplements between his anti-doping tests on the 20th July and 21st of July 2010. The supplements which he normally takes were taken during race days alone (either before or during the race) and not on rest days. It is therefore impossible that the clenbuterol detected in his Sample could have originated from a supplement he was taking. The analysis of the Appellants’ supplement theory should therefore end here.

He raced on July 20, and could have taken supplements during the race, as little as an hour or two before the urine test at the end of the stage. Under these conditions, the CB might not have been fully absorbed by the time of the test. Studies with humans indicate it takes about 2.5 hours following oral ingestion for the peak blood value to appear, and it would be somewhat longer after that before the peak urine value would appear. So at the time of the July 20 test, he could have had a very low urine level that might not have been detected even at Cologne.