Now that we know Mr Wiggoo is targeting overall success at the 2011 Tour de France, where do you see him finishing???
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Wiggins @ 2011 Tour
- Thread starter Altitude
- Start date
I think hell improve on last year. Maybe get a top 10.
There should be a 10 - 20 option.
Finishing outside the top 30 is unlikely for a protected rider. He finished 24th or some such this year. Lance finished 23rd.
There should be a 10 - 20 option.
Finishing outside the top 30 is unlikely for a protected rider. He finished 24th or some such this year. Lance finished 23rd.
The Hitch said:
I think 11th - 30th is fine. Nobody really cares whether you were 16th or 26th-- especially if you're a GC contender. It's top 10 or nothing, and I don't see him getting top 10.
I see him finishing behind two of his team-mates, Uran and Löfkvist, despite the fact that they will have sacrificed their own chances for him.
On exceptional form he might finish 8th or so, but exceptional form is rarely reached. With very good form he'll probably finish in the 12th-16th range; and since that's the most likely, i voted 11th-30th.
I agree with Hitch though, 11th-20th should've been an option. Because finishing 12th in the Tour is miles apart from finishing 29th.
I agree with Hitch though, 11th-20th should've been an option. Because finishing 12th in the Tour is miles apart from finishing 29th.
Way way down. This year he was found out after a tame 2009 route and next year is an even worse route for him. Top 20 would be a result
I doubt he will be top 10, the course just does not suit him like it did in 2009. I put 10-30 but i think he will be between 10-20.
I couldn't resist a bit of mindless optimism
What I really hope is that the guy does some races that he could win with winning them as a goal , rather than the tour as the only goal. The recent interview in Pro Cycling showed he knows the reality of his situation.
He is a hard tough rider and enjoys those races so should do some and a prestigious week long stage race with a prologue, ITT and one long climb should be very winnable for him.
And if Sky had not bigged themselves up so much would be a great result for the team.
As a sportsman with a limited career and a family Wiggo cannot be blamed for taking money on the table. Sky's management and PR need to work out a success story based on the guys ability and personality (which in the UK is very marketable, even if it doesn't travel far.
I hope 2011 is much more successful for Brad, but on paper, this is a grimpeurs tour for the GC but with clear opportunities for everyone else - especially Gilbert
What I really hope is that the guy does some races that he could win with winning them as a goal , rather than the tour as the only goal. The recent interview in Pro Cycling showed he knows the reality of his situation.
He is a hard tough rider and enjoys those races so should do some and a prestigious week long stage race with a prologue, ITT and one long climb should be very winnable for him.
And if Sky had not bigged themselves up so much would be a great result for the team.
As a sportsman with a limited career and a family Wiggo cannot be blamed for taking money on the table. Sky's management and PR need to work out a success story based on the guys ability and personality (which in the UK is very marketable, even if it doesn't travel far.
I hope 2011 is much more successful for Brad, but on paper, this is a grimpeurs tour for the GC but with clear opportunities for everyone else - especially Gilbert
Altitude said:
Also because Wiggins himself said in 09 that top 20 is what he was aiming for. Obviously hell want better than that this time but i guess he sees top 20 for a former pursuit rider as a achievment which isnt achieved with 21st.
The Hitch said:
I believe he said he wants a podium finish. I'd say anything outside of the top 10 is considered a failure for him at this point.
Who else thinks that at 72kg he looks too thin and should race 5 kg heavier and be more of one day or week long rider?
Winterfold said:
I agree that he looks scary thin and has obviously lost some power. Doesn't have the most efficient climbing style either.
Even if Wiggins is in top, 2009 form, it will be very hard to top10. The quality of the field in 2010 as will be in 2011 is much better. Plus the course doesn't suit him at all.
Automatically, (Contador), Schleck x 2, Menchov, Rodriguez, Sanchez, Nibali or Basso, Evans, Gesink, JVdB will finish above him. Ok, maybe one or those two will completely bomb, but there's always a couple of surprises too.
So it's awfully hard to get top10, so I kind of had to go with the 11-30 option by default. He will be around 15-25 I think.
Automatically, (Contador), Schleck x 2, Menchov, Rodriguez, Sanchez, Nibali or Basso, Evans, Gesink, JVdB will finish above him. Ok, maybe one or those two will completely bomb, but there's always a couple of surprises too.
So it's awfully hard to get top10, so I kind of had to go with the 11-30 option by default. He will be around 15-25 I think.
Sky have been clever enough to get Uran as their backup plan. He'll quietly ride to a top-15 spot. Wiggins going uphill was painful to watch this year. Even in the Giro where he supposedly went full gas and blew his Tour chances, he wasn't among the 15 best climbers, at any point in the race. I don't know what the hell went wrong in the Tour 2009 (or, conversely, what went right for Wiggins) but I think next season he should do a Mick Rogers: focus on one week races, there's a lot of them, and anything with a TT and a moderate amount of climbing should suit him.
Here are some races that Wiggins could viably compete for and win:
Tour de San Luís (Argentina, January) - a few uphill finishes and challenging-but-not-too-challenging-it's-January-after-all climbs, and a TT of enough length to give a GC type rider the win.
Volta ao Algarve (Portugal, February) - the Alto da Malhão finish splits up the field quite considerably, but a Wiggins in half-decent form should be able to hold close enough to win it in the ITT. Biggest threat would be Machado, who can TT and climb and will be motivated since it's his biggest chance to race in his homeland all season.
Ruta Del Sol (Spain, February) - the ITT here is short, but as long as he can stay in reasonable contact on the first climb he should be okay - Mick Rogers won it this year after all!
Vuelta a Murcía (Spain, March) - the ITT here is long enough to be more or less completely decisive as it's otherwise rather a sprinters' race.
Critérium International (France, March) - the normal race parcours in Northern France would be fine for him - mark the moves on the hilly stage but nothing too strong, then the short ITT.
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde (Belgium, March) - the ITT is decisive as long as you're strong enough to cover the moves.
Circuit de la Sarthe (France, April) - the ITT here may be too short to be decisive, but it certainly puts a rider like Wiggins in a useful position. If he can mark moves and make a couple himself he has the tools to win this.
Vuelta a Castilla y León (Spain, April) - possibly a bit tough; the 15 or so TT km may not balance out a big mountaintop finish with the likes of Igor Antón going full bore. But if he approaches it in some climbing form, he could be a contender, even if he may not be able to go with the elite climbers when they fight out the MTF stage.
Tour de Romandie (Switzerland, April-May) - with a prologue AND an ITT in a six-day race, the opportunities do present themselves, if Team Sky can keep a decent level of control over the race (easier said than done).
Szlakiem Grodów Piastkowich (Poland, May) - though rated 2.1, I don't expect to see the likes of Team Sky at a race as small as this. But it does have some interesting short hills, and a mostly decisive 25km TT.
Tour of California (USA, May) - the characteristics seem to fit Wiggins - prologue and a long ITT, a moderate amount of climbing with just the one serious MTF. Positive: apart from the American teams, nobody else will be taking the GC seriously. Negative: Tony Martin is a better time triallist than Wiggins.
Bayern-Rundfahrt (Germany, May) - a fairly long ITT sandwiched between flat stages and an intermediate one. Ullrich won several consecutive editions because of this TT focus. Wiggins could do the same.
Route du Sud (France, June) - an uphill ITT being the main difference-maker. Wiggins can climb alright, and he can TT well. Too close to Le Tour for him to race, most likely, however.
Post Danmark Rundt (Denmark, July-August) - a mostly flat stage race with the wind (thus far Team Sky's nemesis) and a TT to break things up.
Tour du Limousin (France, August) - four days, including a 40km time trial? Sounds right up Wiggins' alley.
Tour du Poitou Charentes et de la Vienne (France, August) - a similarly themed race with a few hills, needing some policing, but with a TT being key.
Tour de San Luís (Argentina, January) - a few uphill finishes and challenging-but-not-too-challenging-it's-January-after-all climbs, and a TT of enough length to give a GC type rider the win.
Volta ao Algarve (Portugal, February) - the Alto da Malhão finish splits up the field quite considerably, but a Wiggins in half-decent form should be able to hold close enough to win it in the ITT. Biggest threat would be Machado, who can TT and climb and will be motivated since it's his biggest chance to race in his homeland all season.
Ruta Del Sol (Spain, February) - the ITT here is short, but as long as he can stay in reasonable contact on the first climb he should be okay - Mick Rogers won it this year after all!
Vuelta a Murcía (Spain, March) - the ITT here is long enough to be more or less completely decisive as it's otherwise rather a sprinters' race.
Critérium International (France, March) - the normal race parcours in Northern France would be fine for him - mark the moves on the hilly stage but nothing too strong, then the short ITT.
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde (Belgium, March) - the ITT is decisive as long as you're strong enough to cover the moves.
Circuit de la Sarthe (France, April) - the ITT here may be too short to be decisive, but it certainly puts a rider like Wiggins in a useful position. If he can mark moves and make a couple himself he has the tools to win this.
Vuelta a Castilla y León (Spain, April) - possibly a bit tough; the 15 or so TT km may not balance out a big mountaintop finish with the likes of Igor Antón going full bore. But if he approaches it in some climbing form, he could be a contender, even if he may not be able to go with the elite climbers when they fight out the MTF stage.
Tour de Romandie (Switzerland, April-May) - with a prologue AND an ITT in a six-day race, the opportunities do present themselves, if Team Sky can keep a decent level of control over the race (easier said than done).
Szlakiem Grodów Piastkowich (Poland, May) - though rated 2.1, I don't expect to see the likes of Team Sky at a race as small as this. But it does have some interesting short hills, and a mostly decisive 25km TT.
Tour of California (USA, May) - the characteristics seem to fit Wiggins - prologue and a long ITT, a moderate amount of climbing with just the one serious MTF. Positive: apart from the American teams, nobody else will be taking the GC seriously. Negative: Tony Martin is a better time triallist than Wiggins.
Bayern-Rundfahrt (Germany, May) - a fairly long ITT sandwiched between flat stages and an intermediate one. Ullrich won several consecutive editions because of this TT focus. Wiggins could do the same.
Route du Sud (France, June) - an uphill ITT being the main difference-maker. Wiggins can climb alright, and he can TT well. Too close to Le Tour for him to race, most likely, however.
Post Danmark Rundt (Denmark, July-August) - a mostly flat stage race with the wind (thus far Team Sky's nemesis) and a TT to break things up.
Tour du Limousin (France, August) - four days, including a 40km time trial? Sounds right up Wiggins' alley.
Tour du Poitou Charentes et de la Vienne (France, August) - a similarly themed race with a few hills, needing some policing, but with a TT being key.
The Hitch said:
Many people om this forum think these cyclist think logical. Most riders, youngsters incl. have this romance with the tour and sacrifice thier chances in giro/vuelta to ride a tour where they nearly go unnoticed. It's been happening for years, it ain't gonna change next year.
Gesink, Fuglsang, kreuziger, Uran etc aint gonna ride the giro next year, because they might find success there.
Again, people make to many assumptions based on what seems logical.
Kreuziger is doing the giro.Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
Gesink could potentially win the Giro and/or the Vuelta next year, but he will probably prefer to be top 5 in the TDF...
I say DNF. He will go down in the passage du gois and will stop the next day with injuries to severe to contest the mountain stages.
He will return for the Vuelta and finish top 5.
He will return for the Vuelta and finish top 5.
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