Wiggins Discussion thread.

[Angliru]

I consider him a time trialling version of Pierre Rolland so yes he does have a chance.

Some of you are getting way, way ahead of yourselves. Winning a prestigious week long stage race like Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico and the Dauphine is not to be laughted at, but it can't seriously be considered immediately translatable to winning the Tour. One week does not equal 3 weeks. Additionally with the competition split between the 2 races and his potential competitors all at different levels of fitness and healthiness, it's overly optimistic to equate this success to stamping his arrival as a potential Tour winner.

As was mentioned earlier Wiestra was off by only 8 seconds. Does that mean he can comfortably state that he should have his team's full support for run at the Tour's top step? Leipheimer, had he not not been channeling HWSNBN circa Tour 2010, certainly would've been a threat to Wiggins winning PN considering his talents versus the clock. Would Wiggins still be comfortable in his belief that his performance, while not a success (had Wiestra or Leipheimer won), that it shows he is capable of winning the Tour? I really don't see how the 2 are comparable when you have 2 more weeks of grueling racing against everyone in top form versus one week of racing against riders at different levels of fitness and many not even present.

 

[Angliru]

Well at least he's a rider with "limits", unlike LA or Contador (other than 2011 TDF), so it's certainly less boring (not to mention "human") than watching these guys blow up the field everywhere, mountains, ITTs, etc...

Contador has limits. He's not the best in the ITT. He's not much of a sprinter, even in uphill finishes he's not a lock to beat his opponents. Is it any more exciting watching Wiggins blow out his field of competitors in a ITT than watching Contador do the same in the mountains? For me there's no comparison, since I love watching the mountain stages of stage race over all the rest.

 

[Froome19]

Some of you are getting way, way ahead of yourselves. Winning a prestigious week long stage race like Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico and the Dauphine is not to be laughted at, but it can't seriously be considered immediately translatable to winning the Tour. One week does not equal 3 weeks. Additionally with the competition split between the 2 races and his potential competitors all at different levels of fitness and healthiness, it's overly optimistic to equate this success to stamping his arrival as a potential Tour winner.

As was mentioned earlier Wiestra was off by only 8 seconds. Does that mean he can comfortably state that he should have his team's full support for run at the Tour's top step? Leipheimer, had he not not been channeling HWSNBN circa Tour 2010, certainly would've been a threat to Wiggins winning PN considering his talents versus the clock. Would Wiggins still be comfortable in his belief that his performance, while not a success (had Wiestra or Leipheimer won), that it shows he is capable of winning the Tour? I really don't see how the 2 are comparable when you have 2 more weeks of grueling racing against everyone in top form versus one week of racing against riders at different levels of fitness and many not even present.

I have said previously that a high postion in terms of GC or winning Paris-nice is totally irrelevant in terms of an indication as to whether a rider has the capabilities to do well/win the tour.
All I think is that Westra's performance on Mendee shows he has the ability to be a good climber (like rolland) and of course he is obviously a very impressive time triallist which is of course a big factor in this years tour. Whether he has the recovery ability to do well in the tour is up to debate and he may very well not have that ability as you suggest but i believe that is something you can develop over time and who knows he may very well have that ability.
Is he up to the standard of racing in the tour, which is of course much higher than Paris-NIce? Disconsidering the recovery factory, i would in my personal opinion say yes, but that is just a guess yet considering he was the best climber in Paris-Nice and can TT to match the GC contenders then who knows, there is a possibilty if he is on form.

 

[hrotha]

Mende is too short to tell us anything about anyone's abilities on the real mountains. Westra had shown some decent pedigree on the hills before, but to this day he's shown nothing on the mountains. He's no Rolland.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Well at least he's a rider with "limits", unlike LA or Contador (other than 2011 TDF), so it's certainly less boring (not to mention "human") than watching these guys blow up the field everywhere, mountains, ITTs, etc...

A bit brave with the 'humanly'-thing in a thread about Wiggins. But nevermind. Let's not turn this into clinic material.

 

[Froome19]

Mende is too short to tell us anything about anyone's abilities on the real mountains. Westra had shown some decent pedigree on the hills before, but to this day he's shown nothing on the mountains. He's no Rolland.

I dont know about you but personally I think he looked like he would have won on any MTF

 

[hrotha]

I dont know about you but personally I think he looked like he would have won on any MTF

Well no, I don't think he would have won on a 15 km final climb, especially not if there were other serious climbs before it. There's a reason why Gilbert can't win the Tour, and it isn't his TT abilities.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The 2008 edition of Paris-Nice was far more mountainous than this one, and was won by Davide Rebellin.

Paris-Nice is not an indicator of GT-winning potential, because the parcours is so totally different.

However, what this race DID show us, was that Wiggins has improved on the short steep ramps that had previously been a weakness (see 2011 Vuelta) - that could well come in handy to Peyragudes. But more importantly, we learnt that Wiggins and Sky have improved their opportunism, and knowing where to strike. The split in stage 2, the pre-empting Valverde to the bonus sprint, and knowing when to expend energy and when to preserve it. They didn't necessarily race any better than they have done at other races in the past, but they raced as well, and smarter. Sky at the 2010 Tour raced like lunatics, trying plans that they didn't have the puzzle pieces for; and at the 2011 Vuelta they stuck to Plan A for too long after Froome showed that he was stronger (not that I blame them, I was saying they should have Froome soft-pedal the TT in order to be stronger for Wiggins in week 3!!! I just feel that when Froome was in red, there was no need to toast him on the front on La Manzaneda and cost him the time that lost him the race). It looks like they have a much better handle on who can do what and when now, and that is what makes them more threatening than anything else.

 

[happychappy]

Some of you are getting way, way ahead of yourselves. One week does not equal 3 weeks.
As was mentioned earlier Wiestra was off by only 8 seconds. Does that mean he can comfortably state that he should have his team's full support for run at the Tour's top step?

Wiestra hasn't got 4th in the Tour and 3rd in the Vuelta. You're effectively saying Wiggins is unproven in anything over 3 weeks.
You say people are "way, way ahead of" themselves - well you seem to be way way behind!

 

[webvan]

Just heard Bruyneel on the radio, he says Wiggins is NOT a favorite :
- hard to be in good shape in February/March and July
- he hasn't finished second of the TDF several times, unlike Evans before winning, so he only sees Andy as a favorite (other than Evans presumably)...what a surprise, Bruyneel seems to have lost it and can't get over the LA years.

 

[theyoungest]

Well no, I don't think he would have won on a 15 km final climb, especially not if there were other serious climbs before it. There's a reason why Gilbert can't win the Tour, and it isn't his TT abilities.

Yeah, but Westra is not a puncheur like Gilbert.

 

[mb2612]

Mende winning times (From clinic thread):

2012 (P-N): 9:52
2010 (Tour): 9:33
2010 (P-N): 9:44
2007 ( P-N): 9:40
2005 (Tour): 9:33
1995 (Tour): 8:40

So there is still plenty of improvement required if Wiggins and Valverde want to be competitive against the best, even ignoring the '95 climb.

 

[Froome19]

Just heard Bruyneel on the radio, he says Wiggins is NOT a favorite :
- hard to be in good shape in February/March and July
- he hasn't finished second of the TDF several times, unlike Evans before winning, so he only sees Andy as a favorite (other than Evans presumably)...what a surprise, Bruyneel seems to have lost it and can't get over the LA years.

He's got his reasons.....

Well no, I don't think he would have won on a 15 km final climb, especially not if there were other serious climbs before it. There's a reason why Gilbert can't win the Tour, and it isn't his TT abilities.

Well assuming that mendee was 7km longer who do you think would have won?
BTW I do not understand your reference to Gilbert unless you believe he could have won on Mendee

 

[El Pistolero]

A better reference would have been Rebellin hrorta.

 

[gilbertador]

I dont see why he wouldnt be the main favorite in all honesty
There a prologue and 2 tts where he should definitely be the best among GC contenders
Who is going to gain more time uphill than they will lose in the tt?
Evans is the only one and the obvious one but he is another year older than 30
Menchov is inconsistent and the Shlecks will lose time hand over fist in tts
Sky has an awesome team now so they will be able to set up the tempo climbing that suits wiggins which minimises everyone elses gains

Realistically if he can match his form in the Dauphine before the tour again this year with a slight improvement i struggle to see beyond him.....
Laugh all you like, it wont be pretty but theres a bludy good chance Britain will have its first GT winner

 

[cineteq]

Just heard Bruyneel on the radio, he says Wiggins is NOT a favorite :
- hard to be in good shape in February/March and July
- he hasn't finished second of the TDF several times, unlike Evans before winning, so he only sees Andy as a favorite (other than Evans presumably)...what a surprise, Bruyneel seems to have lost it and can't get over the LA years.

Let's call it brainwashing Andy

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I dont see why he wouldnt be the main favorite in all honesty
There a prologue and 2 tts where he should definitely be the best among GC contenders
Who is going to gain more time uphill than they will lose in the tt?
Evans is the only one and the obvious one but he is another year older than 30
Menchov is inconsistent and the Shlecks will lose time hand over fist in tts
Sky has an awesome team now so they will be able to set up the tempo climbing that suits wiggins which minimises everyone elses gains

Realistically if he can match his form in the Dauphine before the tour again this year with a slight improvement i struggle to see beyond him.....
Laugh all you like, it wont be pretty but theres a bludy good chance Britain will have its first GT winner

Menchov on form is a genuine contender though. It's just ironing out the inconsistencies that's the problem with him. If Evans brings the form he had at the 2011 Tour he can get close enough to Wiggins in the ITTs to have a chance if Wiggins falters on any of the climbs. Samuel Sánchez's ITT is consistently and continually underrated, and he's one of the guys who could feasibly take time on the climbs.

Wiggins has to be considered among the favourites, but I don't really see any one clear favourite this year. Quite a few riders who will have something to protect. Hopefully it doesn't spoil the race, with mostly predominantly defensive riders in contention, but it should be pretty open. After all, if the race is laid out right, there should be people like the Schlecks having to explode the race at the bottom of the mountains to have any chance. If they're willing to do that, then it could blast all the domestiques out of the water, and we'll see what the likes of Wiggins are able to do for 30km of mano a mano; to be honest, however, I'm not optimistic, and think it will be quite a cagey Tour of riders all looking to each other until the last few kilometres. Again.

 

[Angliru]

Wiestra hasn't got 4th in the Tour and 3rd in the Vuelta. You're effectively saying Wiggins is unproven in anything over 3 weeks.
You say people are "way, way ahead of" themselves - well you seem to be way way behind!

Wiggins doesn't reference either event's performances in his statement. He uses his Paris-Nice performance as evidence to himself that he can win the Tour. His Tour performance in 2009 has yet to be recreated. He failed in 2010 and 2011 doesn't figure into the equation. His Vuelta performance was commendable but, one: he still didn't win and two: the Vuelta stakes and competition is still not the same as that in the Tour. Granted he came into the Vuelta less than his best, likely still recovering from his Tour injuries but he hasn't recreated that "magic" from 2009 in July, which according to him is all that matters at this point in his career.

 

[thehog]

This Cavendish thing is going to become a problem.

 

[Poursuivant]

This Cavendish thing is going to become a problem.

I've got a feeling Cav won't finish the tour this year with The Olympics looming.

 

[gilbertador]

Menchov on form is a genuine contender though. It's just ironing out the inconsistencies that's the problem with him. If Evans brings the form he had at the 2011 Tour he can get close enough to Wiggins in the ITTs to have a chance if Wiggins falters on any of the climbs. Samuel Sánchez's ITT is consistently and continually underrated, and he's one of the guys who could feasibly take time on the climbs.

Wiggins has to be considered among the favourites, but I don't really see any one clear favourite this year. Quite a few riders who will have something to protect. Hopefully it doesn't spoil the race, with mostly predominantly defensive riders in contention, but it should be pretty open. After all, if the race is laid out right, there should be people like the Schlecks having to explode the race at the bottom of the mountains to have any chance. If they're willing to do that, then it could blast all the domestiques out of the water, and we'll see what the likes of Wiggins are able to do for 30km of mano a mano; to be honest, however, I'm not optimistic, and think it will be quite a cagey Tour of riders all looking to each other until the last few kilometres. Again.

Im afraid your wrong no one can blast wiggins domestiques out they will simply not last as long, they will ride at Wiggins max pace until they drop then he will continue the tt to the top, a rider on their own or a group of up to 3 will never be able to pull a huge gap out of a form Wiggins on the climbs. He simply doesnt need to let his pace be affected by accelerations he can let groups go up the road by 30 seconds then his superior engine will bring them back or minimise the loss

He came 2nd in the tt worlds, realistically Sanchez in peak tt form will still lose 2:30 - 3:00 at an absolute minimum over 3 tts, Evans really is his only rival if everyone arrives in peak condition. I honestly think Menchov is past it.....may be famous last words

 

[airstream]

Just heard Bruyneel on the radio, he says Wiggins is NOT a favorite :
- hard to be in good shape in February/March and July
- he hasn't finished second of the TDF several times, unlike Evans before winning, so he only sees Andy as a favorite (other than Evans presumably)...what a surprise, Bruyneel seems to have lost it and can't get over the LA years.

The Devil starts diabolical mindgames. In fact, I don't exclude the likelihood that Wiggo can put into Andy even 4'30-5 min. and about 1'30-2, - into Cadel, but how to pay for this on the climbs... It will be a very exciting Tour.

Im afraid your wrong no one can blast wiggins domestiques out they will simply not last as long, they will ride at Wiggins max pace until they drop then he will continue the tt to the top

Are you serious? Exactly what domestiques are you saying about? You're describing the most favorable scenario for Wiggins, but not the most likely one. If one believes in your vision of the Tour, Wiggins will win it by 3+minutes.

 

[MartinGT]

Great win by Wiggins, but what a **** he comes across on Tw@tter

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Are you serious? Exactly what domestiques are you saying about? You're describing the most favorable scenario for Wiggins, but not the most likely one. If one believes in your vision of the Tour, Wiggins will win it by 3+minutes.

A top form trio of Porte, Uran and Froome could discourage all but the strongest or most foolish attacks, save for some peak climbing form from the Schlecks. Throw in Sivtsov and Rogers, 2 riders whom we've seen climb very well in GTs, and you could quite easily see a US Postal style train.

As has been pointed out though, how Sky can reconcile the aims of Cav and Brad will determine whether the above is even a possibility. Porte and Froome in particular are probably earmarked to hep both - tough ask.

 

[El Pistolero]

Lol, Uran will stop not a single attack. What has Froome done this year so far? As far as I'm concerned he still has got to get rid off that one day fly tag. Not saying he can't do it, but I want to see some results first

Porte could hardly climb up a mountain in a GT last year, somehow I doubt that will change much unless there's something odd going on. The only way we could see a US Postal train out of these 3 is if Sky dopes them up à la Bjarne Riis.